Nvidia - my deep dive

Hi everyone

This is my first attempt at a deep dive, so would welcome feedback. Its not super easy to post in its entirety here, but if you think it would be helpful, I could probably try.

The point is for me to understand what the company does, which tides might be lifting their boat, competition, and a basic DCF to understand what value the market is putting on growth and margins.

https://gregnz.github.io/stocks/NVDA.html

I’ll start doing this with other stocks (probably ANET next, but could be persuaded!).

Let me know if this is useful, and particularly if theres anything I’ve missed, screwed up, or could clarify.

cheers
Greg

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I have looked at the nvidia shield tv for a while. Seems to get high marks and good reviews.

Many TVs are “smart” and preloaded with apps for netflix and amazon video. But i have preferred a dedicated streaming device for easier navigation and better quality streaming.

I had a few Sony Android TV boxes and Amazons FireTv, and now have a Sony UHD 4k bluray android tv streamer.

Downside to Shield is it does not play 4k bluray disks…streaming device only. My Sony player does play discs, but not a hub for gaming. Trade-offs.

Shield has optional gaming controller and 2 neat tie-ins for games. 1. You can basically cast your nvidia-enabled gaming PC to your big screen with minimal latency. 2. You can use the GEForce streaming gaming service. Basically this is cloud-based gaming paid via monthly subscriotion fees.

*note you should be able to use GEForce Now on any PC, even those without an expensive gaming pc with expensive graphics card. Advantage of Shield TV is being able to play those games on your big screen tv.

Shield may seen odd for NVIDIA…but they are both helping to create a game-streaming market and injecting themselves into the entertainment hub of the home. It is actually a great hedge if cloud gaming explodes as less PCs with graphics cards would be needed in theory.

By then they hope autonomous cars are a major revenue source anyway.

-Dreamer

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Greg,

Is there a reason you posted a link to a different forum post, rather than posting here"

Also, probably not in good taste to publicize the date and price of specific paid service stock picks from TMF. Especially on non TMF forums.

That is TMF IP.

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Can you make an estimate of revenue from cryptocurrency mining? There’s been some controversy (e.g., at Seeking Alpha) over how much money they’re getting from it.

Hi Greg:

Thanks for the write up. I understand some of the tech terminology better as a result.

John

Hi CMFAleeb, main reason is that GitHub lets me format using markdown, rather than the limited options on the forums.

GitHub is web-based Git version control which supports markdown well. So if I want to share the document, I don’t have to worry about converting to HTML etc.

re: TMF… I can remove that. Maybe I’ll put a link to the recommendation.

cheers
Greg

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Hi Dreamer,

yes, Nvidia Shield TV is … kinda interesting. In an odd sort of way. If however, Ge-force Now actually works as specified…? It might actually be pretty cool. But that has been tried before, and latency is a killer in those games.

I guess its the same issue that Netflix has, so will be interesting to see its progress. But… If I was a gamer, and I wanted to solve my “game problem”, I’d head to an Xbox or PlayStation.

Hard to compete as far as I can see.

cheers
Greg

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Thanks for the response Greg. Totally understand your reason for posting there.

That sounds like a great plan for the rec. Nothing wrong with saying something along the lines of Nvidia “which is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor Rec”…

Great post and great info on the company.

  • Austin

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Hi Ed

I did look, and its actually pretty hard. Crypto had some impact on revenue, but they also (reportedly) had supply constraints. Its hard to work out exactly what that means, since they didn’t seem to have massive drops in inventory.

If you read through the CFO commentary, they don’t mention crypto often, although I imagine its been playing a role since … maybe 2012 ? They also say things like “Our PC OEM revenue includes GPUs designed for mainstream desktops, notebooks, and cryptocurrency mining. The recent rise in crypto coin prices resulted in increased demand in OEM GPU sales.”

which suggests all that revenue is being dumped into the OEM+IP revenue line, which roughly makes up 10% of total revenue.

https://venturebeat.com/2017/08/12/nvidia-ceo-cryptocurrency…

"GamesBeat: Did you say a hallelujah for cryptocurrency?

Jen-Hsun Huang: No? Cryptocurrency is around. But it represented only a couple hundred million dollars, maybe $150 million or so. There’s still crypto mining to go to, currency mining. It comes and goes. It’ll come again. Somebody will come up with new hardware. Digital currency is not going away. It’s here to stay."

So maybe $150million? around there?

cheers
Greg

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