NVTA

Thanks Qazulight. Retrying it with the advise.

NVTA was discussed here some time back and since I had bought a small position I have been tracking there performance. After this qtrs underwhelming results, I decided to sell. Here are my reasons:

I was hoping Cost of Accession per sample will get much lower by now. Company’s goal is to lower it close to 100 bucks but seems like the progress to get there will not be as fast as I expected. Here are the numbers from last few qtrs. (the cost is going up since 1st qtr 2019:


COGS   Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4
2016   $600   $520   $465   $400
2017   $359   $345   $330   $322
2018   $279   $279   $262   $243
2019   $226   $252   $249

Cash burn is actually increasing. So the company ls losing gobs of cash with no sight of profitability…


Cash Burn (MM) Q1    Q2    Q3    Q4      Yearly
2016                                     76.3
2017                                     97.7
2018          35.1   26.5  18.4  17      97.0
2019          29.6   33.2  40.3          103.1

Operating expense is also trending negatively. This qtr even the gross profit and gross margin trended negatively.

Looking at the shares outstanding, too much dilution is going on qtr to qtr. This cant be just the effect of one off secondary. So looks like management is getting richer at the expense of shareholders.

 Shares Outstanding      Q1       Q2       Q3      Q4
2018 Basic                                        75,092
2018 Diluted                                      75,092
2019 Basic              79,369   90,863    95,577
2019 Diluted            79,369   90,863    95,577

I may be wrong so please check the numbers yourself and make your own decision.

Ruhaan

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