Odds of Civil War at the Southern border and macroeconomic affect?

I though the Supreme Court said that Federal agents could remove razor wire, but it didn’t say that the state couldn’t put up the barrier.

DB2

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Maybe the wire is discouraging some. We’ll see if the trend continues.

Notably, the numbers in TX’s Del Rio sector, which includes Eagle Pass, have fallen off a cliff. In December, the sector saw days of 3,000-4,000 illegal crossings per day. Over the last week, it has averaged around just 200.

DB2

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There is a lot of trade crossing the US/Mex border these days. Would the trade be impacted? Would factories in the US shut down for lack of Mexican parts? Will companies run out of stuff to sell?

Steve

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Impacted by what? What is your scenario here?

DB2

The scenario would be heavily armed goobers declaring “the Republic of Texas” and sealing the borders, especially the border with Mex.

Steve

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Abbott would shut them down ASAP because it would be a major killer to the state’s economy. Abbott KNOWS the state is heavily dependent on the federal govt. Not being part of the US means losing all that financial AND logistical support–plus losing ALL of the US military located there ($$$!!!$$$).

THEN they lose access to all the oil and gas distribution networks outside their territory, non-local technology, and so on.

They would then have to “build a wall” ALL THE WAY around their territory. Otherwise, people would be leaving in massive numbers–especially a lot of tech people in most fields. They could NOT prevent people from leaving unless every mile of that walled border was manned 24/7, specifically to stop tech people from leaving. Tech flight WOULD happen and their economy would collapse fairly quickly.

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This is an ongoing circus. After Nevada, Texas leads the nation in employing undocumented workers. Texas has the highest percentage of undocumented workers in its labor force (after Nevada). Let’s see Greg Abbott go after big Ag in his state. Or let’s see him go after the meat processing industry for employing undocumented workers: In Texas, undocumented immigrants have no shortage of work. That’s why the come to Texas.

Hypocrites.

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This has been the story for 90 years now, ever since giant agricultural interests quietly recruited and exploited Mexicans after FDR started protecting the “Oakies” who had migrated to California from exploitation.

Most of the immigration political shrieking is a planned sideshow to the continuance of exploiting cheap vulnerable because illegal labor nationwide. Penalizing the employer works far better (check out the rest of the world), but NNNOOOOOOooooooo! Because, well, just 'cuz.

As a result of our idiocy regarding employment creating big volumes entering, the illegal pathways are now huge, well trod and tested and BRIBED, and EASILY exploited by smugglers of drugs and other contraband, and absolutely attract every person in the world who can imagine themselves as a refugee, never mind the hordes of all too real refugees in an ever more insane world.

The debate in the USA as to what to do remains trapped, trapped in illusions and delusions purposefully propped up by Agro-industrial, hotel/restaurant, and construction trade interests backing the likes of Abbot.

d fb

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Firstly, the goobers declaring the “Republic of Texas” would be political theater. Their blockaide of all border crossings, including blocking truck and train traffic, would put a crimp on the national economy.

As for the Tex/US money flow, iirc, Texas is pretty close to paying it’s way. I remember a discussion I had with DesertDave some years ago, about Plan Steve for the US west coast and northeast breaking off of the US and joining Canada, which would leave Texas to support the rump US.

This ranking puts Texas #35 in Federal dependency, receiving 83 cents for each dollar paid to DC, and Federal funding covering 20.49% of the state’s budget.

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Piece on the wire today about the immigration legislation:

The border proposal, which took months to negotiate, is aimed at gaining control of an asylum system that has been overwhelmed by historic numbers of migrants coming to the border. The bill proposes an overhaul to the system with tougher and quicker enforcement measures. If the number of illegal border crossings reaches above 5,000 daily for a five-day average, an expulsion authority would automatically kick in so that migrants are sent back to Mexico without an opportunity to make an asylum claim. If the number reaches 4,000, presidential administrations would have the option of using the expulsion authority.

The US is obligated, under international treaty, to accommodate refugees, as a “safe” country.

Plan Steve, as mentioned before, is to declare that, as Mexico is “safe enough” for the hundreds of Billions that non-Mexican corporations are investing there, Mexico is “safe enough” for people escaping from Venezuela, Guatemala, and other similar garden spots. That would put the burden of accommodating the refugees on Mexico. The US and Canada, being compassionate countries, would help Mexico bear the costs of accommodating the refugees. I have seen Mexican officials say Mexico needs their labor. I have seen a US Congressman, who represents a district on the border, say the Mexican government gladly issues work permits to the refugees passing through, in the hope they will stay, but the people only use the work permits to legally transit Mexico, on their way to the US.

Plan Steve would go a long way to solving this problem, with the stroke of a pen. But TPTB seem to not want to really address the problem, but rather, to maintain the status quo, so they can make political points off it.

Steve

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I agree it is theatre. But Abbott insists on pushing the envelope. When it breaks, he comes begging, crying, and screeching for FEDERAL WELFARE. Make him aware of what is at stake if the federal govt decided to give him a small TASTE of being “off the govt teat”.

True, if it was doing NOT using massive amounts of federal money fed to it via the military via a variety of military bases AND by its oil processing on the Gulf Coast. Some oil is imported and then exported via the refineries, but a very significant portion of the oil comes from outside the state. With no oil from the US, most refineries basically shut down due to lack of raw materials AND the closing of markets in the US to their products.

This is exactly the point.

Except for the Reagan “interregnum”; the Reagan amnesty adjusted the number of undocumented Ag workers considerably. I suspect that the Big Ag employs today in California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington close to 90%. immigrant workers; meaning first generation immigrants. This (as your point out) has poured over to the construction trades. Contractors across the state have told me that most framing subs have to be able to read plans and be bilingual or it’s a non-starter. The only exceptions are small jobs only requiring two or three framers. Other aspects of construction trades are also impacted by immigrant workers to the point where it would be impossible to keep up with the housing demand without immigrant workers both undocumented and documented.
This loud noise about “keeping immigrants out” is a political rally shout with all the hypocrisy that defines America. The most hard-core anti-immigrant voices are the ones that employ undocumented workers, and depend on their compliance to make big profits.

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Texas does not have a term limit for Gov, so there is always an eye on how policy plays with the mob, even if the policy is stunningly hypocritical. Right now, pushing back on the “socialists, communists and fascists” in DC, as well as bringing in money from DC, (bringing back OUR MONEY, which is technically correct as Texas is a net payer) plays well.

Steve

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Playing to the mob today. What happens when you squeeze on one part of a balloon? It bulges out somewhere else.

“And so these governors are rallying around Texas to support our ongoing right to self-defense, and the deployment of this razor wire that has led to a massive reduction in inflow,” “The area where we have occupied this park in Eagle Pass, Texas, that we put up the razor wire, there used to be 3,000 or 4,000 people crossing that area a day.”

“For the past three days, we have averaged just three people crossing that area. The point is, if we put up resistance, we show that we can secure the border.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/abbott-claims-texas-razor-wire-has-led-to-massive-reduction-in-migrant-flow/ar-BB1hLxSO?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=f09a7c6808164880a872cc3a539a7579&ei=17

BAM! Go after the big companies, the big industries that employ these people and they will stop coming. But we can’t have that can we! And yes, the Texas ag industry would collapse if that were to happen.

If this really was an emergency, if it really were a crisis, we’d have the House passing the bipartisan bill from the Senate, rather than blocking it for a year so the Orange T*rd can campaign on a manufactured issue.

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“Must not burden the “JCs””

Given the decades that people have been posturing about the issue, it is clear that a bipartisan majority does not want it effectively addressed, so they can make political points off it. TFG is the only one to say so, clearly, and publicly.

Steve

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…is endorsed by Mexican resident flyerboys and most of my friends and neighbors, both rich and poor and native and ex-pat.

d fb

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Bob,

You can’t bank on anyone being that dense.

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@steve203 Those stats do not discuss the actual dynamics of a state economy. If the federal government invests in a state that might help the state’s economy very long term.

The truth of how bad that pov is…DC is close to Mississippi in the rankings. But DC’s average income is the highest in the nation.