Gaucho I don’t disagree with that view that long term lower oil prices might beneficial., In part because lower oil prices have in them the acorn that will grow into higher oil prices,
. Eventually.
But “eventually” could be a long time. I invest for the shorter run (except for a few deep conviction stocks) and in the next couple of years I think consensus will once again be wrong, falling oil prices will have either neutral or slightly harmful effects on the economy. I could give more prognostications but my supply of of tea leaves and entrails is low at the moment.
In fact even though I would be surprised to see oil prices much above $80/bbl in the next 4 or 5 years I will not join the ranks of all those who predict oil prices. Because almost all of them have been shown to be wrong in the past.
Oil and solar are not related, almost all oil is used for transportation, almost all solar is for fixed use. Any connection is remote.
Since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, the traditional centers of power in the Arab world—Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states—have been nervous about the growing influence of Iran: its nuclear ambitions, its sway over the Iraqi government, its support for the militant groups Hezbollah and Hamas, and its alliance with Syria.
The conflict is now a full-blown proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which is playing out across the region.
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2014/12/15/saudi-arabi…
IMO it is likely that Iran has more undiscovered oil than any nearly comparable sized country in the world. But they are too incompetent to find it, and the oil they have is not cheap to produce. It will get even more expensive if the US and EU ever really get tough about sanctions because they need foreign equipment to drill and produce new fields,