Oil drop confusing markets

May be a bit OT, but worth consideration as we look further ahead when sentiment catches up with reality. As Neil has stated on many occasions, cheap oil should factor a net neutral to slightly positive result on our economy.


Global equity markets are off to a bad start to 2016 largely because oil’s dramatic fall is confusing investors, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) President and COO Gary Cohn said Thursday.

“What I think the confusing part of the oil market is, everyone’s relating the sell-off in oil to be an economic slowdown,” Cohn told CNBC’s " Squawk Box " at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “I don’t believe the sell-off in oil is reflective of an economic slowdown.”

U.S. oil prices have dropped over 20 percent in 2016, including their worst settlement since May 2003 on Wednesday.

“We’re not seeing a demand slowdown in oil,” Cohn said. “What we’re seeing is a massive oversupply of oil. So we’re now having to price oil at such a level that we can actually price in all available on-land storage, and then we’ll move to floating storage.”



Except for the fear of debt contagion related to all the smaller shale oil producers and such who could become insolvent if oil is low enough for long enough that they cannot fund their obligations. I do wonder how much oil shorting is being done by banks themselves to hedge their own loan books? Not quite the impact of CDS swaps and CDOs related to mortgages in 2008, but I think that is a big part of the recent correlation of oil to markets, which historically are not as correlated as they have been in recent months.

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