The shipping industry is expected to face a flood of new container ships entering service in the coming years, leading to overcapacity and weaker demand.
The largest wave of these new ships, mainly Megamaxes, will arrive this year, posing capacity pressures on trans-Pacific rates in 2024.
Carriers are expected to resize their fleets to cope with the orderbook dilemma, and scrapping and vessel layups are expected to increase in the coming months.
Here it comes. An unprecedented flood of new container ships is about to enter service. The pace of deliveries will pick up in earnest next month, surge much higher in the second quarter, go higher still in the second half, even higher throughout 2024, and stay strong in 2025.
“The colossal orderbook is like a sword of Damocles hanging over the market, with a raft of new ship deliveries in the next months inevitably triggering a return of overcapacity,” warned Alphaliner in a new report on Tuesday.
“The change will be obvious from mid-March,” Alphaliner analyst Stefan Verberckmoes told American Shipper, adding: “This newbuilding wave is coming at a time of shrinking demand.”