One of the key subscript service gurus I follow believes we are due for a summer retreat which would allow for better entry points ACB. It should be pointed out that they are not the only ones I follow that are sounding the Retreat. Now…they are chartists of a sort and trade more frequently than I do - which, in and of itself doesn’t rattle me all that much - however, in general they put their money where their charts are and trade accordingly.
At this point it should be noted that like all charts folks they follow a conversational pattern that goes something like this: We believe that given where the market indicators are today
it is highly probably that a near term pullback is a certainty; that is unless, XYZ occurs and then we could see a healthy Bull run. Our probabilities call for 100% recessionary conditions forcing stocks lower unless the market somehow slugs t was out.
Any way - what to do? As I mentioned there are a number of folks I follow who are seeing the same market dark clouds on the horizon. However, all that might mean to long time, experienced investors is that they should keep some cash on hand for portfolio roster augmentation.
Note that with two exceptions the roster remains the same: I did sell out of ENPH. Why - well because a highly respected subscription guru, that has been sky high on ENPH did and they believe that a better entry will ensue. We’ll see. the other company I sold out of was MELI - and did so with a hardly discernible loss. Why? Pretty much the same reason as above and to raise cash for all the buying opportunities that the pros claim are coming my way.
When I combine all that with fact that I will be mostly out of pocket this summer I would like to do so without looking back over my shoulder to see what’s gaining on me. So basically my plan is to let the core roster do the heavy lifting and tamp down the trading a bit.
We’ll see how all that works out. Hope everyone has a fantastic summer.
All the Best,
Oh…one last thing before I take off for a bit. Several of the older folks from the Mongoose have written to ask me about BDH Investing - supposing some how that I have joined one of those groups of investment advisors; or, alternatively, starting a service on my own - which I find laughable for a great many reasons.
BDH Investing is nothing more than an inside joke between me and the All-Too-Lovely. It came about this way:
A couple of years ago I was approached about joining a group that was going to debut their subscription service on Seeking Alpha. Since I do very little without running it by my wife…I did. Her comment was something like this: Well…if that is something you want to do, although I can’t imagine why…just do it on your own. Thats what you do with everything you do and I don’t see how this would be anything different.
Then I said something - joking around - well I could do it on my own I suppose but then …what in the world would I name it? Without hesitation she replied: How about Big Dumb Hick Investing? That was the end of the conversation and any thought I ever had of trying to pass myself off as anything but an amateur investor.
Hope everyone has a Blessed, fun, profitable and safe summer.