OT: Alternative Perspective

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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An alternative heading for this post could well be “How I lost a fortune.” (I “lost” well into 6 figures–ouch–but still my gains YTD are several times that of the S&P 500.)

So each of us has either taken a beating over the last several weeks, or cashed out either by luck or genius. The following chart shows the YTD price for several holdings that are popular here. (They are all my holdings–you can change them by editing the list below, then clicking the “GO” button, NOT the “Predefined Group” button.) Note that clicking on a ticker symbol in the header row, changes that stock’s gains to zero, and compares all others to that chosen stock, another useful perspective IMO, allowing one to compare performance between stocks on an absolute basis.

It may also help to look at these over a different time frame. Be sure to play with the slider at the bottom of the chart in order to change the time frame, anywhere from 1 day to YTD. It really helps (me, at least) get perspective on what stock is doing what, and when. Note that “Days” is Market Days, not Calendar Days.

I sold a few things before the current slide, but have bought or sold nothing since, so I have considerable cash for bargain shopping. This wasn’t really a conscious decision on my part as much as luck. I still like and believe in all the companies I own, and expect them all to come roaring back when the market turns again. If that takes a year or more, so be it, in which case I will survive, but not replace my aging Avalanche nor my outdated Corvette. Boo hoo, I expect others have much worse problems to deal with after this little market rout, so I will not complain. Dealing with a broken neck for several years now, I’m used to a little pain, market-related and otherwise.

In the spirit of full disclosure, I should mention that any doubt I have concerns NTNX. While I can’t find any serious issues with the company, the market isn’t always completely off-base, so I continue to look for that mysterious flaw that others see that I cannot. I’ve seen a lot of bad pricing in the market over the years, for many companies. But the trend of this one is so strong and so negative, that I can’t help but wonder what I’m missing. I will surely win big on Nutanix, or I will lose my shirt once again. I wish I knew which, but maybe that would take the fun out of the game.

Stocks shown include ABMD,ANET,AYX,AZPN,MDB,NTNX,OKTA,PSTG,SQ,TWLO. I hope they help you see the bigger picture.

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?ABMD,ANET,AYX,AZ…

Dan

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Nice post Dan.

I didnt have the big up this year as I’ve been very conservative, just holding my core positions.

I sold ANET back when it crossed 300, SHOP and TWLO mid Sept for the most part as valuations just got too rich for my blood.

Most of the other stocks on your list I’ve wanted to own, but just didn’t want to take on too much risk.

I’ve patiently waited with the realization that I might never own any of them again if they just kept rising.

Then this sell off happens and I’m starting to put limit orders in, with a plan to buy in thirds.

So far I’ve bought 2 positions back into ANET at 250 and 240 if my memory serves me. I bought a first position in NTNX at 39 and TWLO last Friday at 67. I have limit orders in on MDB and OKTA as well.

From my own experience when a group of high growth momentum names like these finally after a huge run up that’s gone on for the most part all year finally lose their steam, roll over and turn the other way, it can last much longer downward then one might think.

Looking at the Asian markets getting crushed tonight, I’d say this sell off isn’t over. So I will add if we do go lower, with my eye looking way past these waves of volatility.

I’ll use the volatility to build positions knowing that I might need to hold my breath underwater for longer then I’m comfortable with, but I will pop up on the other side at some point.

Interesting market indeed.

Chris

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Dan,
Thanks for the post, and especially the link to the chart. I plugged in my own positions and bookmarked the page. Very useful. I changed the chart to histogram mode and arranged the entries in descending order with the best performing position on the left (which makes it the top line on the line graph). Makes the graph a bit easier to read.

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Chris I do not post here very often but this board seems to be very focused on keeping things on topic-discussing individual growth stocks. It don’t worry about the China markets. As soon as you do and sell them it will be the bottom. Your priority right now is to stop letting psychology and emotions get the best of you. It’s probably best to stop talking about this on here.

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Sorry wrong threa than what I thought