I’m sure those of us who are not involved in SHOP are tired of this, so please pass this thread and thanks for your patience.
Dan
Shortify’s at it again. I felt I had to respond, and not with both barrels, but with a machine gun. Shame on me. 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4078560-shortify-shopify-ma…
I appear to be one of the few here who appreciate opinions disagreeing with my premise on a company much more than those in general agreement. I learn little from those who agree and see no value in arguing against nay-sayers for the sake of appearing correct to whom, investor longs? Please, let’s all use our time more productively. The bottom line will tell the truth in who is right and who was wrong, just as it has throughout history, but of course this takes time and it’s our current affliction to be collectively out of patience for anything under discussion, including disagreement over the value of a company whose future appears bright indeed, but in reality, like all market-disrupting new companies (and new ideas) will take considerable time to skim the reality off the top of all the hype.
However … talk about confusing. There are so many contradictory statements in this analysis that it’s hard to gain anything knowledge from your analysis. Rather than point those contradictions out (we can all read here) I would like to make my own synopsis of the hype surrounding Shopify in the market.
Many investors claim to have gotten in stocks at the beginning for companies who changed the landscape in their chosen field. (indeed some did … but how many stayed in through the peaks and valleys of price volatility which always surrounds these market-changing new thinkers? Many fewer than those that claim, that’s for sure.) So millions of investors truly missed out on the heydays (or is it “hay” days, as in make hay while the sun shines?) of bulldozers like Amazon, Netflix, Facebook, Google, Wild Wings, and many others. And many of us are/were reluctant to jump on the pile of buyers in these companies after prices were rising faster than a speeding bullet and able to leap tall market hurdles.
And now along comes Shopify. It’s been awhile since a company showed signs of dominating a market so thoroughly as does SHOP. I’m reluctant to compare, but maybe there are similarities between Shopify’s race to dominance of the ecommerce scene today and Microsoft’s sprint to the top of must-have software back when. That situation played out in front of everyone here over the age of 35. And still, millions of us totally missed out on one of the biggest commerce and cultural changes in human history. “It was too expensive.” Oh really?
But of those millions who missed out time and time again, many of us have seen those signs again—signs of a likely market segment’s takeover heading our way at the speed of light via Shopify. The word is out. “Shopify is the NextBigThing. Must have Shopfiy shares. It isn’t too late.”
Right or wrong, we won’t miss out again. It’s too big, too obvious, too much demand. So I’m afraid for your financial safety. Not because I disagree with your possible real directive; But we’ve been presented with a lot of if’s, maybe’s and I think’s, and very few relevant facts. You may be right. You may be wrong. But your analyses, if they continue to parallel these first several, are unlikely to change anyone’s mind and only emphasize your frustration. I think you know this, and of course that makes many of us wonder what your real goal here truly is.
Meanwhile, there is a huge and growing demand for Shopify’s services on the web. There is a huge demand for shares of Shopify’s stocks in the market, which if not already, will soon be in short supply (pun coincidental but relished) in spire of a secondary offering! There is so much interest in Shopify that journalists and writers of every background are clamoring for more information, even those outside the financial industry.
So whatever your intentions (I admit, to borrow your phrase, I’m confused) my analysis of your analysis is that the ramifications of your writing about your doubts in SHOP are about to move strongly against you, only adding to the interest in and demand for, Shopify services and Shopify shares. As a shareholder, I find that counter intuitively disappointing for several reasons, a whole other conversation. So I will mention only that most of us here would have a hard time justifying SHOP’s valuation today, outside of the forces I’ve mentioned here, which I warn you, are real and powerful. But at many times, we found the same thing in the young Microsofts, the Amazon’s, the Netflix’s and so on in the past, have we not? Yet, no matter when a foolish investor bought any of these companies, and I add always against the advice of short-selling preachers of those times, I dare say few are unhappy with their returns to date. Hard to argue against that, isn’t it? So my belief is that investors don’t want to miss out on the obvious game changer yet again and that particular trains’ brakes aren’t nearly up to the task of stopping this ride. You should know this, and I suspect that deep in your core, you do.
Meanwhile there are sizeable landslides in the markets—commerce and equities— once again. And not wanting to add to your woes, sir, but I feel it my duty to remind you; I believe your podium is directly in the path of one of the largest, which we might call Landslide Shopify.
As an investor I must embrace some risks. Nothing risked, nothing gained as we often hear. But Shortify? Oh, my. I fear the squeeze may be unprecedented—and the end. Shortify at your peril, sir.
Before it’s too late, please. Allow me to bid you good luck and goodbye. It’s my belief there’s too much violence in the world already. So I hereby refuse to be a witness to the coming destruction of a friendly but misguided Shopify Shortifier. When it shows up on YouTube, I won’t be there. So be well, Shortify. And if you have the courage revise your strategy, no matter how public your “explanation”, be long.