I´m not sure you´re right, on the contrary.
On the other hand, although there’s no point in making statistics, I believe that (for personal reasons) Saul has exited many stocks that sometime in the future have recovered and (at least) doubled in value: ZS and ANET come to mind.
Although (unlike many others) I stopped following his board long time ago, for me Saul remains a man I respect for all that he has done in the past for those interested in stocks/investing.
Investing large sums of money copying Saul’s portfolio (in spite of his warnings!) was a decision that worked for years.
Until it didn’t.
And that’s when the true character of those who had begun TO LOOSE began to emerge.
If those who have been posting disguised invectives at him had carefully read The Knowledgebase, they would have realized that everything they have been posting for years is worthless. Precisely because The Knowledgebase foresaw from the very beginning what was going to happen someday, say in 2020 or two years later.
Yes, The Knowledgebase contains, among other things, a clear and quite often explained warning, which the vast majority either didn’t want to, or simply couldn’t understand.
But blaming others for your own failure it´s simple and convenient.
That’s right - Saul never strong-armed anyone into buying his portfolio.
The other aspect of Saul that I didn’t appreciate at first, but after a year or so understood: he is a short-term investor. He denies being a stock trader and that is correct, technically, but he is quite nimble in getting in and out of companies that he sees value in or no longer value in. If you look at his portfolio from year to year, you can see that he has no trouble selling and buying companies frequently. This is often a tough thing for most folks who would like to be long-term investors.
I completely agree. While it’s not my approach, it aligns with the strategy used by the investment club the thread initiator mentioned.
They claim not to be traders but they are. It is one way amongst many to play the market.
I think Saul is a brilliant investor (and a brilliant man) and he taught people his method for free. I commend him for that. He has been having some health issues, and he admits it has hurt his performance recently. I think two things happened. One was that he got so much adulation that it went to his head. Scores of people just idolized him. The other thing is he could have been softer with people who said things he did not like. Broadway Dan is a professional writer, and had great posts. One time, he talked about why he liked a company. He does not know finance, so talked about his respect for the company’s CEO. Saul just lit into him, stating if there were anymore posts like that, he would lose his right to post. He has not posted since.
You mislabeled this thread. You’re just mad/sad/upset that a stranger on the internet said mean things to you and you couldn’t influence him to change the entire scope of his board to something different. You’re welcome to hold a grudge, if it makes you feel better. While I don’t mean to speak for Broadway Dan, I’m sure he’s moved on.
It’s just a board for either finding a new stock idea or confirming one you already had. Searching for anything else is probably a stretch.
Oh baloney. He’s mad/sad/upset become someone running a well travelled board was saying things that were demonstrably untrue, and when evidence was presented both he, it, and anyone else who questioned the leader were summarily trashed and occasionally exiled.
There was a LOT of bad information on that board along with the good. But when someone refuses to allow that discussion, then it’s simply dangerous to people. That, in a word, is irresponsible.
I have no issue with someone having a different investing strategy than my own, indeed I celebrate their victories. I also think they should not be afraid to let others have opposing opinions. It’s that simple.
You have self selection bias. First, of all, I gave my exact results from following him. Second, you are only looking at some of my comments. Did you see this that I wrote. “I think Saul is a brilliant investor (and a brilliant man) and he taught people his method for free. I commend him for that. He has been having some health issues, and he admits it has hurt his performance recently.” I said what I like about Saul, which is plenty, and what I don’t like. In no way, was I 100% negative. My feelings about him are neutral. I respect his genius and his generosity in teaching people his method for free. I don’t like the way he talks to some people.
Pretty simple really. Sauls popularity got to his head a bit, and he didn’t know how to be a good leader in certain situations.
Main example. He bashed anyone discussing valuation. Ok I get it to a certain point, but it got ridiculous when as a small group they came up with new ways to “value” their cloud names when the valuations reached more and more absurd levels. Anyone that questioned that was attacked and or banned if they became a nuisance. That’s what cults do.
The other glaring one was the refusal to discuss cash positions, and even further, the way they made cash the enemy of investing. Anyone with cash was a fool, and missing the opportunity to make big gains by holding a cash position. That the only acceptable way to invest was to always be 100% in stocks. A bear market later and they are all listing their cash positions in their monthly performance posts. Not one mention of the transition, of what they may have learned, or what changed their minds.
Saul went even further to write now that he’s always had a cash cushion, that especially at his advanced age, he’s always pulling funds out and into the safety of cash. So where was the leadership in 2021, when so many were following, many in retirement years, being told cash was your enemy, stay fully invested. That’s the only way to invest.
When you run something that for whatever reason gets a cult like following, you can’t say you don’t have a responsibility to the people joining you. You put yourself out there like a Saul has done, sorry but there is responsibility to it, and some of what Saul did I know for a fact hurt some people pretty badly financially and emotionally. I’ll also put some of the blame on Motley Fool for giving him the platform and the power to control his own board, which to my knowledge is the only public board that has a controlled and hand picked membership.
There is a difference in having cash in an emergency fund or whatever, i.e., taken out of investing, and having some large part of your investing money in cash.
I am continually amazed at the hostility shown Saul by anonymous posters here and on other sites. Where else do you find someone posting monthly transactions and the reasoning behind them and has been doing so for about 10 years? You are not paying him for his reasoning and you are absolutely free to disregard it in whole or in part. He makes this clear assuming you take the time to read his lengthy Knowledge Base which is found on the first page of his site.
It appears evident this is a high risk, high reward method of investing. He states up front that his site is a place to analyze and discuss individual growth stocks. It is not a forum for value, dividend or occasional investors. It is not for chartists or timers. He tells you what is a proper subject of discussion and if you do not agree, kindly go elsewhere.
Perhaps those who visit this site do so to look for new ideas, see whether their reasoning for holding, buying or selling similar companies is consistent or different from other investors. Maybe they want to see how their returns compare to others.
It is disingenuous to blame Saul if your returns are unsatisfactory.
I hope you don’t consider me as hostile to him. First, I wanted to state what my results were following him, which I know is what he says is not to do. I thought I was balanced in what I said. He is a brilliant man, and a brilliant investor, and he teaches us all for free. That is very positive. How he occasionally talks to people is not positive. I am grateful for what he taught me, and what I learned from others. I do think he could have got his point across and still been a little softer with people who post things he does not like. He is human. Some very good things, some not so good things.
Tamhas,
You’ve been around a long time. You remember when they balked at any cash in an investing portfolio right? You see now that just about everyone that it still posting there, is now showing a cash balance. Bear for one has like 45% cash, maybe more. Stock Novice has I think 25% cash. This was unheard of with those guys pre 2022. Saul never ever mentioned cash until after 2022.
As for abusing Saul, or blaming Saul for someone’s choices or returns, I don’t see anyone here doing that. Poster above didn’t do it, and neither did I. People did get caught up in the hype though, I was there daily and witnessed the growth between 2017 and 2021, and with it the inflated invincibility of the main group. The ever shifting new and improved analysis and numbers to change valuation models that fit the message, instead of the other way around. None of those guys in November 2021 was raising a warning flag on valuations. In fact they were doing the opposite. It wasn’t permitted. That’s just plain fact.
It’s not “hostility” to point out flaws in an investment system. It’s called “criticism”, and some people don’t want to hear it and shut off all dissent. Others respond defensively, and still others actually defend, and are sometimes proven right. Which of the three approaches would you say is the best?
Yes, but some of the “hostility” comes from people posting on Saul’s board on a topic Saul has explicitly and in writing has said is off topic for the board and who are then annoyed at Saul firmly telling them it is off topic.