OT: Guns of August

Many of you may be familiar with Barabara Tuchman’s classic the “Guns of August” about the start of WWI.
The usual starting point is usually cited as the Archduke Ferdinand of Austria’s assassination. It escalated from a single act of terrorism to a series of missteps, misunderstandings, backstabbing, mistrust, and fear which culminated in the Great Powers locked in a death struggle none of them wanted, none believed would actually happen, and found it impossible to stop once it started.

JFK was hugely impressed by it, and made it required reading for his cabinet and staff and gave a copy to all of the top military officers. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, used the GofA as an example of bungling your way to war. “We are not going to bungle into war,” he said.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00IB43Q6C/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?..

There are no counterfactuals with history. No one knows what would have happened had different decisions have been made. But we do know in many cases the decision making process was bad. Decisions made on emotion and not the facts. Not thinking through the problem. In the current situation, there are good reasons for doing lots of different things, but not all of those things lead to equally good outcomes. This is a time to be careful and thoughtful, and not make decisions based on emotion.

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Thanks. I need to get that book. I’ll also recommend a podcast series by Dan Carlin called Hardcore History. He has a series about WWI that is long, very well done, and great to listen to. Speaking of Franz, the assassination attempt itself was quite interesting. It was originally bungled, but the car turned around and went back to an assassin that first missed, and then killed Franz. His driver’s choice of escape route is what ended up killing him.

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Thanks. I need to get that book. I’ll also recommend a podcast series by Dan Carlin called Hardcore History. He has a series about WWI that is long, very well done, and great to listen to. Speaking of Franz, the assassination attempt itself was quite interesting. It was originally bungled, but the car turned around and went back to an assassin that first missed, and then killed Franz. His driver’s choice of escape route is what ended up killing him.

Love, love, love Hardcore History. Dan Carlin quoted from GofA quite a bit for the initial portions of that series. After the first assassination attempt was bungled, the would-be assassin stopped off for a bite to eat, and Archduke Ferdinand’s car stopped right in front of the pub, giving him another chance.

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On the ground in the Ukraine is a permanent crisis.

The western markets are not in crisis over this any longer.

We are highly organized. This will be drawn out for years. There is a bottom line we can no longer do business with Putin he must go. How we get there needs to be objectively thought through. We do not as JFK is saying need to bungle into war.

We are though on a war footing.

Sweden and Finland will probably need to join NATO. We must offer them a safe passage. Russia will attack Finland other wise. While there might be odds on that, do not bother trying to justify the odds Putin wont attack Finland. That is not how Putin works.

The economic shift away from western corporations producing in China is part and parcel of this abrupt cold war. Xi is less interested in assuming risk. Xi in the long run would be worse than Putin as he if he is more empowered.

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“Russia will attack Finland other wise.”


Why would Russia attack Finland? I fail to see the logic or any benefit to Russia. I doubt that
the experience the Russian troops in Ukraine are demonstrating would encourage additional attacks

  • anywhere. Also, wars cost money and would Russia not need monetary support to continue an
    extended war of aggression? Would China help finance such an action?

Howie52
Back in the 60s would anyone have considered China as the financial arm of the two countries?

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Why would Russia attack Finland? I fail to see the logic or any benefit to Russia.

Yes.

However, at some point in the next decade if Russia continues so wastefully and stupidly, I can imagine the culturally largely Finnish Russian Province of Karelia revolting and seeking to rejoin Finland (the Russians grabbed it from Finland in the opening weeks of WWII).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karelian_question

david fb

For some reason I keep thinking back to John Toland’s The Rising Sun book. Specifically what caused Japan to draw the US into WWII. The book is a step-by-step account from the Japanese viewpoint.

Japan had taken over Manchuria in 1931 seeking room for industrial expansion and raw materials - without much repercussions. It then invaded China in 1937 seeking still more raw materials and land. There were many atrocities. This all led to the US putting economic restrictions on Japan with severe impacts.

Neither side really wanted to go to war. But neither side trusted the other and negotiations to avoid war were hampered by such. At the last stages, the US said they would withdraw sanctions if Japan withdrew from China. From the book, Japan was willing to do so to avoid war, but thought that also included Manchuria which would have been crippling from an industrial standpoint. The US did not include Manchuria in their “China” mandate but this was never clear to the Japanese. Lack of trust and poor communications prevented this being resolved. So Japan viewed the US offer as unacceptable.

Instead, Japan decided on war with the US - hoping a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor would cripple the US Navy leading to a short war and a negotiated peace.

Instead we know what happened.

Putin is not Japan - his motivations for empire and a buffer zone are different. And he is a dictator. Japan had internal political conflicts between those seeking empire and those level heads understanding the consequences of a war with the US. Their decision was a reasoned one from their viewpoint.

Still one wonders how negotiations with Russia faced the same distrusts and lack of good communication before the invasion of Ukraine. And a similar error in judgment.

It worries me. I hope there are some level headed people in Russia before this gets further out of hand.

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Putin is sternly warning Sweden and Finland not to join NATO.

Putin sees NATO on his borders. A constant movement of NATO to his borders.

While from our perspective NATO will do nothing to Russia that is not at all how Putin sees NATO.

As far as logic out of Putin? Really? I can not find any or get there in my worst nightmares, but here we are.

Putin sees NATO on his borders. A constant movement of NATO to his borders.

Thirty years ago, NATO directly abutted Russia’s “sphere of influence”. Russia proved the dominion it had over eastern Europe in 56 and 68. I remember a hilarious moment when a sitting POTUS said Russia did not dominate Poland. Everyone in attendance at the event was laffing at him. Russia proved it’s domination of Poland a few yeas later.

On 11 February 1981, Jaruzelski was named Chairman of the Council of Ministers (Prime Minister). On 18 October, Stanislaw Kania was ousted as First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Polish United Workers’ Party after a listening device recorded him criticising the Soviet leadership.

According to Jaruzelski, martial law was necessary to avoid a Soviet invasion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wojciech_Jaruzelski

Steve

While from our perspective NATO will do nothing to Russia that is not at all how Putin sees NATO.

Perception is reality insofar as it is treated and reacted to.
– Desert Dave (Quotation, with attribution, permitted and encouraged.)