Jim’s bottom indicators were good things to pay attention to. Markets up 14% in October.
That can’t be correct. Divi said Jim’s indicators are nonsense.
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There are many things to recommend Divi but his dislike for Jim is not one of them. There is lots to learn there. We can all agree to disagree without having to disparage.
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I’d be amazed if we’ve seen a bottom, having read my stock market history I’d consider the recent uptick another bout of optimism before a further grind down what with increasing interest rate rises and outlook etc leading to market readjustment. Someone commented that we’ll know when we’ve reached the bottom when people have necome bearish on Apple and it’s sold off.
Personally im just DCA into some names I like at reasonable valuations, Apple definately isn’t one. 10 year 12% return price target is $90 per share.
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I didn’t pivot very much as a result of the post about the bottom detector, but I appreciated it. Pretty much I just held onto what I owned. But it helped me to stay resolved about that rather than selling anything. And on the margin, I bought a couple of things that have done extremely well from the bottom, but they weren’t done at any scale. I am girding for a bumpy period.
Having said that, I am not as convinced that the market has another large round to go of deep decline the way people like GMO believe. I know why they believe that and can appreciate where the belief comes from when I see our currently interest rate level and valuations from things like CAPE. But I see individual stocks that I follow trading at what seems like very attractive valuations. BRK included. This is the first time it’s felt that way in years. So I can’t quite resolve the discrepancy mentally but there are things that seem worth investing in now as a conservative value oriented investor.
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Am I missing something obvious?, still above 2000 and 2007
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Here’s a recent (Oct 19) talk with Howard Marks. Apologies if posted before.
Marks: "I don’t believe in forecasts, especially my own. Following the recent correction FAANG’s are “essentially fairly priced”. Recession likely coming, but forget the short term…next few months. What matters is the long term. Can you find stocks that will do well for the long term. Still investing in China?‘’
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The corporate tax cuts pushed through by the prior administration mean that more of GDP is flowing to the corporate bottom line. If one assumes that the current lower tax rates will continue, then a one time re-valuation upward on this measure would be appropriate.
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My problem is not with Jim but with folks who hang on to Jim’s words. Sometimes he is right, mostly about BRK. His advise and reasoning is sound and has earned the trust of the board. He has also been right about DLTR.
However, most of the other times Jim has been very wrong: CBI, ADS, TSLA, AMZN, S&P etc and can be objectively measured with info from last 10 to 15 years. The pattern was Jim asserts something and folks hitting the like button, not based on the content but on who authored.
Do your own due diligence.
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Taxes are heading north in the UK to balance the books, assume it’ll be the same in the US.
And separately a good interview with Mervyn King on interest rates “the UK faces similar issues to the US” from May 22"
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My problem is not with Jim
…
most of the other times Jim has been very wrong
…
I say again. There is no bottom detector, no top detector.
Ignore this nonsense.
No comment needed. Speaks for itself.
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For me, trying to assert the value of Jim by pointing out cases where he was right or wrong is not the point. I was happy to see his bottom detector and it influenced my thinking about some things, but it wasn’t like I tried to back up the truck or something. Similarly, the fact that Jim’s call was wrong in some situations like CBI doesn’t detract at all from the value I think he had.
Jim was invaluable because he thought deeply about the situations he was looking at. He did an enormous amount of work and analysis and showed you the data. Its the kind of analysis I wish I could do but don’t have the time for and couldn’t do in some cases even if I wanted to. It was like having a great analyst working for me for free.
Armed with that analysis, I could make my own decision and diligence. I never blamed Jim for failings and I didn’t think he wanted nor did it feel right to me to credit him with the wins. We all make our own decisions ultimately. When I click thumbs up on one of his long form posts, it wasn’t a reflection of whether I agreed with him or not (although I did often), it was a thank you for putting in all that work and sharing it with the community. Prediction is a hard business, I don’t expect he or anyone else to get it right all the time. If Jim had a blind spot, we could all decide that for ourselves and ignore his recommendations. But his data was always helpful and you could follow his logic, disagree or not.
That is worth so much and far more than posts that offer a short paragraph asserting only an opinion rather than deep analysis + opinion. Even if the posters opinion is right a lot of the time, its value to me is close to useless. But the ability to have someone constantly streaming data and analysis for me to weigh, now that was gold.
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This post is an example of your and the boards infatuation.
The data was wrong, the reasoning was wrong and post were long for no reason.
That is how you get CBI and ADS and Baba and ridicule TSLA and AMZN.
Do your own due diligence.
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Yeah. I did my own diligence. That was the point. I can’t help it that in the end my judgement was that his data was more accurate and his analysis more transparent than the limited amounts you put up.
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Why worry about bottom indicators.
Dividends is often correct. His posts remind me of the late poster named “Eurotr*sh”, god rest him.
What an insult to Euro, as everybody can attest to who knew him. Apparently you did not.
I once had the pleasure to meet him in Tokyo. That man does not deserve to be named in the same sentence with D.
P. S. : After my post was removed let me pls add this: I stand to what I wrote (that you met him too makes your comparison even more baffling).
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Hey… I knew him and met him too!
Why so angry? Euro and I used to email back and forth. I liked him very much.
Dividends is very good, too. There is always more than one way to skin a cat.
Euro, was an independent thinker and always kind.
Jeez?
They both thought independently and although I have not met Dividends in person, I did meet Euro at Joann’s BBQ at the Annual Meeting.
Gosh… I agree with Dividends, if you are a true long term buy and hold forever BRK shareholder, you care nothing about technical or mechanical analysis. You do not to short term time the market. And you do not cotton any short term thinking for buying or selling. You buy a good company with a future and when the price is fair or cheap, if you are lucky. You sell when you need the money for something else.
Goodness… gracious.
Recessions are painful, I get that feeling, unless you are WEB.
Are you ok?
:^|
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The name calling on this thread is something that Euro would never do.
Shame…
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Your comment was not exactly removed and as far as I can see it was much appreciated.
The moderators can`t overlook the use of words that, no matter how innocuous they may seem (to some of us), contradict the board policy.
Enjoy the weekend!
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