Silent on 9/30? Is that bad or does 9/29 trigger it?
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I find it amusing folks here frothing on everything mungo says despite him being wrong on almost everything he has said over the years.
S&P vs BRK
AMZN
TSLA
CBI
ADS
on and on. I guess DLTR compensates.
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Thanks, I’ll be checking in on the regular.
One advantage of this fiasco & the new website that resulted is I won’t have to read repetitive posts by who those who continually fail to understand, or pretend to fail to understand, what he is presenting.
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folks here frothing
Neither true, nor kind.
everything mungo says despite him being wrong on almost everything
Neither true, nor kind.
If we take away the parts of your post that are neither true, nor kind, what are we left with? Not much.
It’s especially unkind to attack someone with false accusations and insults, that you know is not here to defend themselves against it.
I have - for a long time - admired the degree of patience, dignity, and politeness with which Jim has responded to year after year of baseless and unkind attacks on him personally.
Mungofitch’s intellectual attitude and social conduct are of a very high standard and worthy of emulation.
Yours, dividends20, are not.
Separately, I will note that:
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To my knowledge, mungofitch has never in 20 years claimed his views on individual stocks were ‘right’ or ‘superior’ and has frequently referred to having many bad outcomes like anyone else.
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If I were to rank all the most useful and valuable influences on my investing education of the last 20 years, Jim would make the top 6, albeit after a brutal 7-way battle for the position, involving himself, Jack Bogle, Seth Klarman, Nassim Taleb, Howard Marks, Ben Felix, and ‘TMF, generally’.
(Buffet, Munger, Grantham, Soros, Montier, secure the top 5 places).
Having said that, to establish my respect for the guy you’re needlessly and unprofitably insulting…
I’m not asking you to be kinder in your attitude, out of respect for a member of my Pantheon.
I’m asking you to be kinder, because, “it’s nice to be important, but it’s more important to be nice”.
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Surprising it didn’t trigger on the 30th: another significant down day (-1.5% S&P 500) on volume higher than the prior day. His model is based on the broader market, though, as I recall, and small cap stocks did better yesterday, only down .6% for the Russell 2000. So I guess the overall market breadth wasn’t as strongly down as needed to trigger.
Mungo was far from infallible. I.e. he has been bullish on CarMax recently, which took a brutal beating in recent days. But, he’s obviously a very smart guy who thinks a lot about the market, puts in work to analyze it, and spent a lot of time writing about it and explaining his thinking.
I sure wish I’d paid attention to his major bottom indicator back in 2020 instead of running scared of another leg down … that would have made a big difference in my current wealth.
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Fyi- I was curious-BRK itself is up 52% at present since the last major market bottom fired in March 2020 (and was up 103% at peak 2022 YTD price in late March).
Also like AAPL here, off 21% in 2 weeks and I imagine Mr. Cook & maybe Mr. Buffett are buying as well. Any hiccups will look like a blip over time. May add to an oversized position if it drops to 130 or so. I think it will run nicely when inflation subsides, the Fed pauses and equities become even more appealing to those on the sideline.
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Copied from Mungofitch’s Website:
“2022-09-29 strong “short term bottom” signal”
So it’s the short term bottom signal, not the major one yet.
It looks like actually both signals fired on Sep. 29, based on what he wrote towards the end.
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Yeah, sorry, I need to learn to read till the end…
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This bottom detector is nonsense.
Don’t fall for it. Folks are acting like kids in a candy store.
No one knows how Oct, Nov or 2023 looks.
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Whether the market bottom has been reached or not, my recent purchases were companies selling at near or less than the 10:1 market cap to pretax earnings ratio Buffett advocates. I have liked these companies for a long time and held off buying until they dropped below the 10:1 market cap to pretax earning ratio.
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No one knows how Oct, Nov or 2023 looks.
I am starting to wonder if we should pay more attention to your views on 2022, as you appear to be a misplaced time traveller.
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This is a graph Jim posted a couple of years ago about the bottom detector. The longer the line, the stronger the detector.
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How do we get an update from JIM on Major Bottom Indicator after today?
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I imagine starting with a more polite tone than ‘how do we get’ wouldn’t hurt
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I just received this message from TMF regarding my original post starting this thread in which I posted Jim’s “Major bottom detector” comments:
Your post was flagged as inappropriate: the community feels it is offensive, abusive, or a violation of [our community guidelines].
This post was hidden due to flags from the community, so please consider how you might revise your post to reflect their feedback.
I still see it (probably so that I can edit it) but sorry to whoever “community” was: My “inappropriate” post rather disappears in CyberNirvana than get “revised”. My consequences are different.
Assuming this is the first post in the topic, I can see it too.
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Yes, that’s the post the link in the email points to. Still visible. Anyway.
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I think the post in question was posted by DBB on Oct 8. On my system I can open the post to read if I want to. I think the email message is referring to the thread, not the post.
Craig