OT: Kinda - Wealth and Stocks

Typically I would only post this on the METAR board, but the last thread delved so deeply into the future and all the cool things that lay there that I wanted to point out some really important stuff.

When we create something truly valuable, like an open software platform (Think DOS vs Apple) we create not just wealth for the company that built it, but wealth for the entire economy, and it is all interrelated.

For example, we were experiencing a significant lack of oil up until the end of the 1970’s, but using advanced computing techniques we were able to locate a great deal of oil in non-OPEC countries. Even more importantly we were able to reduce oil consumption a great deal.

Additionally, we had a significant shortage of capital. This is reflected in the very high interest rates of the time.(I know the Fed did it, but imagine if the Fed tried to jack up rates now, I am pretty sure the bond market would probably collapse, mainly from laughing so hard.) Walmart solved a lot of that problem by using a skinny inventory system among other things, and created a great deal of wealth in the process, but that system would not have worked with memos and paper invoices. It took computers and a lot of them.

I point this out because while we cannot know what will be the “next big thing” and even if we do, we don’t know who will profit from it. Anyone remember the NeXT computer, the Amiga, or the Osborne 1?

The trick is to understand that the wealth will be reflected in the stock market indexes, and the real trick is to identify the business leaders who can collect more than their share and who will reward their stock holders.

This is what Saul does.

It is my belief that Saul hasn’t seen anything yet. He thinks he has done well, but as the market rises, he may scare even himself.