Make a plan when the market is not in stress. Stick to the plan when the stress arrives.
BCC, like many timing methods, does not add much to CAGR. While out of the market, many small gains are balanced by a few large losses.
Subject: past BCC sell signals, Date: 4/29/2022
https://discussion.fool.com/past-bcc-sell-signals-35100895.aspx?..
Dates BCC turned 0, inflation > 5%, and sbqBars > 12.
Date [SMADiff] [NHNLDiff] CAPE EG inflation PH98 prevBCC sbqGain sbqBars Gain21d Gain42d
19411216 0.0 -8.8 10.1 34% 10% 0.832 4 3% 15 4% -1%
19420211 0.0 -0.6 9.7 21% 12% 0.833 2 -1% 78 -5% -8%
19420624 -0.1 -0.4 8.9 5% 11% 0.915 2 3% 7 5% 7%
19461018 -0.1 -3.0 11.4 -27% 15% 0.781 4 4% 36 -2% 3%
19470110 -0.1 -0.6 11.5 -15% 18% 0.859 2 3% 13 6% -1%
19471212 0.0 -0.7 10.7 14% 9% 0.929 4 1% 1 1% -6%
19480121 0.0 -0.9 10.4 15% 10% 0.921 2 1% 8 -3% 2%
19480211 0.0 -5.6 10.0 19% 9% 0.879 1 1% 19 2% 11%
19480315 0.0 -1.5 10.2 22% 7% 0.896 1 5% 5 9% 15%
19691119 -0.3 -0.8 18.4 11% 6% 0.963 2 -3% 34 -4% -6%
19700115 -0.4 -0.5 17.1 8% 6% 0.932 2 -1% 34 -5% -4%
19700309 -0.8 -0.6 16.5 5% 6% 0.900 2 -7% 121 0% -9%
19730605 -0.3 -9.1 15.8 9% 6% 0.877 4 2% 31 -3% 2%
19730802 -0.1 -0.5 15.3 11% 7% 0.928 2 -1% 24 -2% 3%
19730912 -0.5 -0.4 15.5 13% 7% 0.926 2 3% 5 8% 3%
19740329 -0.5 -0.5 13.3 14% 10% 0.878 2 -20% 198 -4% -6%
19810827 0.0 -3.0 8.4 -2% 11% 0.912 1 -1% 30 -6% -3%
19811208 -0.1 -0.7 7.8 -3% 9% 0.933 2 -6% 80 -4% -7%
19820521 -0.7 -0.4 7.2 -11% 7% 0.936 2 2% 65 -5% -2%
19901204 -0.7 -1.3 15.8 3% 6% 0.888 4 2% 31 -1% 7%
20220525 -22.5 -7.8 32.5 62% 8% 0.830 4
avg -1% 42 0% 0%
[NHNLDiff] is a 9-day weighted average of NHNL. No signs of [NHNLDiff] going positive anytime soon.
Date [PcntNHC252] [PcntNLC252] NHNL
20220525 0.6 5.7 -5.2
20220526 0.8 3.4 -2.6
20220527 1.8 1.4 0.5
20220531 0.9 2.5 -1.6
20220601 1.0 4.6 -3.6
20220602 1.6 2.2 -0.6
20220603 0.9 2.7 -1.8
20220606 1.0 4.3 -3.3
20220607 1.2 2.3 -1.1
20220608 0.6 2.0 -1.4
20220609 0.3 4.7 -4.4
20220610 0.2 11.1 -10.9