OT: Reviewing 2011 Portfolio Strategy

I just stumbled over a text file on my desktop I called “My Investment-Strategy 2011” which contains essentially the following notes, written down in 2011:

1.) Grantham in a piece from July 2020 about 7 Year Allocation Outlook: The S&P will

a) either goes sideways or falls very slowly
b) or b)climbs from now 1000 to 1400/1500 before it then falls dramatically

My notes contained instructions for myself in case b) happens:

  • From S&P at 1300 on starting to sell everything I am willing to sell (probably meaning not all of BRK) plus partly leaving USD for EUR+YEN+AUD.
  • Waiting for fall and bottom of S$P
  • Buying then fonds like GMO&Leucadia + High Quality US Dividend Stocks + Markel&Fairfax

2.) Update from Oct 2012, S&P 1440: According to Mungofitch US market is according to ALL indicators historically seen 40% overvalued! Probably will within a few years fall 1/3 to 1000.

Luckily I did not adhere to what I told myself and did nothing.

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