With all the recent events, Ukraine has sort of been forgotten, but there have been some interesting developments.
One is that Ukraine has developed fairly robust long range drone strike capability is able to regularly attack military targets far from the front lines.
Another is that Ukraine has moved away from the WWI style trench warfare defense tactics and towards a more fluid defense, falling back as the Russians approach, and then counter attacking. This had lead to a marked increase in Russian casualties, to the point where Russia appears to be having trouble generating forces for the first time in the war. It is rumored that Putin is contemplating involuntary call-ups.
The other effect is that Ukraine has actually been gaining territory this year. Not a lot, only about 400 square km, but that is territory Russia originally captured at very high cost, and now must recapture.
For the first time, it is starting to look like Ukraine is not just holding on, but starting to gain an advantage. Probably not the beginning of the end, but maybe the end of the beginning.
For one very long range attack Ukraine put the drones on trucks and let them fly once they reached their destination. Ukraine is being consulted by major powers about drone usage. Good show!
Another quick update. Today’s ISW report states that Ukraine appears to have a drone advantage over Russia. Ukraine is able to destroy mid-range targets, including oil refineries, and intercept Russian drones on large numbers. Russian casualties remain very high, possibly above replacement rate.
The Russian offensive appears to be stalled. Russia has made minor gains in some areas, but Ukraine has recaptured even more territory in response.
And…there are others who’d defend war criminals. But I digress.
Ukraine is strategically targeting Russia’s oil supply chain. They’re not indiscriminately destroying stuff.
"The Ukrainian military are applying an effects-based approach to an entire energy value chain by targeting Russia’s upstream production assets, including oil platforms in the Caspian Sea; key pipeline pumping stations on export systems, such as the Druzhba Pipeline; power plants and substations; oil storage sites; oil loading ports, such as Novorossiysk; and most of all, oil refineries.
Multiple strategic factors underpin Ukraine’s specific attention to Russia’s oil supply chain. First, crude oil and refined products sales are Russia’s main source of externally generated income and largely fund its war efforts. Second, interdicting oil storage and refining capacity can also impede Russian battlefield logistics. This is reflected in the large number of strikes on oil storage assets located in western Russia as well as the fuel facilities supporting the Engels Bomber Base.
Third, Ukraine appears to be prioritizing economic and military effects over direct impacts on civilians in Russia. Put differently, Russian consumers may experience higher gasoline prices or increased reliance on public transportation, but electrical services have typically remained interrupted. Ukraine’s demonstrated energy strike capabilities at this point — including successful but limited strikes in late 2025 on key high-voltage power substations in central Russia — suggest that leaving Russia’s electricity infrastructure intact is thus far a conscious choice by Kyiv."