labeled OT because the only good indicator has been endeared useless by the Fed.
And because timing isn’t the point of the Saul method. Though looking at the ragged saw pattern of prices of Saul type stocks indicate that the price fluctuates more than the fundamentals Is there any real data suggesting Sketchers suddenly is not selling shoes, that people have decided going barefoot is the best way?
http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/15100…
And No , I don’t know when.
IMO the stock market itself is a good indicator. Every recession has been accompanied by a bear market- actually the bear comes first. But you have already lost too much money by then. Also sometimes markets anticipate recessions that never happen.
If you could make money in markets by studying economics, all economics majors would be rich. They aren’t
we are in an environment where we can look only at “predictive” indicators that are not 100% reliable. Actually, most are not even close. Some indicators have predicted seven out of the last four recessions. Some never trigger at all.
Personally I am leery of any kind of predictive measure when it comes to markets. Complex interactive systems are never the same two times in a row. Afterwards looking in retrospect it seems clear but it never does at the time.
I just try to be not too far from the front of the exit and entry lines to the biggest show in earth, the Stock Market.
The line is already formed, already moving when I join. Sometimes the line doesn’t lead to any door but the men’s room. So you call it a mistake and start all over again. Having reduced your risk but maybe losing a little money (never very much)
Real egress lines are harder to find than real entry lines. At panic times the exit line is moving so fast that trying to join it will likely result in getting trampled. Markets move down quicker than they go up because fear is more potent than greed