# OT:Was the Israeli Missile Attack Upon Iran a Misstep? **URL:** \ **Category:** Macro Economic Trends and Risks\ **Created:** [June 17, 2025, 1:48am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160 "2025-06-17T01:48:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DrBob2](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/drbob2/32/3456_2.png) [@DrBob2](https://discussion.fool.com/u/DrBob2)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 8:40pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/22 "2025-06-17T20:40:49Z")
> [@steve203](#): > > Seems apparent that, the only way to really be sure any Iranian nuke program is dead and buried, is to occupy the country. That’s an odd conclusion. A nuke program is quite a large undertaking (witness the number of sites in Iran) and takes years. Not something that can be kept secret if it is looked for. So no need to occupy Iran. Just let them know that if one is started up again it will be bombed again. DB2 ---
**Author:** ![AlphaWolf](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/alphawolf/32/5945_2.png) [@AlphaWolf](https://discussion.fool.com/u/AlphaWolf)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 8:47pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/23 "2025-06-17T20:47:58Z")
> [@steve203](#): > > Notice, we are hearing the same sort of narrative that we heard about Iraq: the population hate the regime, probably soon to be followed by “US troops will be welcomed as liberators”. I think it was US troops will be welcomed with open arms. AK-47s, IEDs, vest bomb martyrs, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 8:51pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/24 "2025-06-17T20:51:09Z")
> [@DrBob2](#): > > So no need to occupy Iran. Just let them know that if one is started up again it will be bombed again. But what if we give power to people who like to use only soft diplomacy? Or people who think justice is being nice while nuclear arms proliferate? I am talking blatant…id…s… It is called criminal negligence. It can kill the US and the rest of the world. Oh someone here said don’t guess that sort of thing. I do not consider that to be thinking at all. ---
**Author:** ![steve203](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/steve203/32/3302_2.png) [@steve203](https://discussion.fool.com/u/steve203)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 9:38pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/25 "2025-06-17T21:38:44Z")
This piece on bubblevision’s site is a bit more pointed than the one on Yahoo. > **[Trump weighs potential U.S. military strike on Iran, demands ‘unconditional...](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/trump-iran-israel-khamenei.html)** > > President Donald Trump warned Iran's leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that he is an "easy target" and that "our patience is wearing thin." If they got their dream, of a surrendered Iran, who would police it? Israel is still working it’s ethnic cleansing in Gaza. They can’t handle 90M Iranians, regardless what the Iranians may think of the Mullahs. Steve ---
**Author:** ![waterfell](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/waterfell/32/8050_2.png) [@waterfell](https://discussion.fool.com/u/waterfell)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 9:46pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/26 "2025-06-17T21:46:52Z")
> [@syke6](#): > > Iran has been signaling they would be willing to go back to the original deal the entire time. Of course, the Iranians want to go back to the JCPOA. The JCPOA let them cheat and continue to hide much of their nuclear weapons program, and the IAEA couldn’t do much about it. The Iranians would be happy to go back to that arrangement. Just one example: The JCPOA let the Iranians delay inspections for 54 days after being notified the IAEA wanted to look at something. They could simply move whatever clandestine materials and equipment out of the area during those 54 days. A real deal, with real teeth, would force the Iranians to open up whatever facilities the IAEA wanted to see **on the day they showed up**. [https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/delayed-inspections-jcpoa-provisions-for-iaea-access-to-suspicious-sites/](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/delayed-inspections-jcpoa-provisions-for-iaea-access-to-suspicious-sites/) \_ Pete ---
**Author:** ![steve203](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/steve203/32/3302_2.png) [@steve203](https://discussion.fool.com/u/steve203)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 9:52pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/27 "2025-06-17T21:52:13Z")
> [@waterfell](#): > > Just one example: The JCPOA let the Iranians delay inspections for 54 days after being notified the IAEA wanted to look at something. Would any such movement out of a facility not be seen by surveillance satellites? Steve ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 10:30pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/28 "2025-06-17T22:30:42Z")
> [@steve203](#): > > Would any such movement out of a facility not be seen by surveillance satellites? Absolutely and it would result in war? Or keeping at a standstill? Would you complain if we went to war under those conditions? How about if we went to war because Iran is advanced and can build several nukes very quickly? Before playing the Israel or US blame game…Iran decides what Iran does. It is unacceptable for Iran to have nukes. We agree right? ---
**Author:** ![syke6](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/syke6/32/26265_2.png) [@syke6](https://discussion.fool.com/u/syke6)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 10:56pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/29 "2025-06-17T22:56:05Z")
> [@waterfell](#): > > Just one example: The JCPOA let the Iranians delay inspections for 54 days after being notified the IAEA wanted to look at something. Wanted to look at something not on the list, you mean. IAEA had 24 hour access to everything on the list, plus real time video and electronic surveillance. Instead we got no access to anything, no surveillance of any type, and a shooting war. I don’t think that’s a security upgrade. ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 10:58pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/30 "2025-06-17T22:58:38Z")
This is important information. I believe US intelligence. But if we are all marching no matter how slowly towards a nuclear Iran we simply have to stop marching. The second to last point matters. JMO Iran has exhibited it will create war throughout the ME. The number of dead does not matter to them. So why would we let this march towards nukes continue? Another opinion a government with religious leaders in power doing evil should not be leveraging anything up to and including nuclear weapons. It is evil to have the clerics control a country. If a country plots war anywhere it can reach and goes up against us and our allies in the process those are declarations of war. Lets get on with it. Iran can stop seeing anyone other than the clerics as the problem. AI No, according to US intelligence assessments, Iran is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon and is estimated to be up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target. While Iran has made progress in enriching uranium, which is a key ingredient for nuclear weapons, it is not actively engaged in the key weaponization work. Here’s a more detailed breakdown: - **US intelligence assessment:** US intelligence agencies assess that Iran is not currently building a nuclear weapon and that the country’s supreme leader has not authorized a nuclear weapons program. - **Timeframe for weaponization:** While Iran has made significant progress in enriching uranium, US intelligence agencies believe it would take Iran up to three years to produce a deliverable nuclear warhead. - **Iran’s stance:** Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful and not for weapons development. - **Trump’s position:** Despite the intelligence assessments, President Trump has expressed concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and has suggested that it is closer to developing a nuclear weapon than the intelligence community believes. - **Expert opinions:** Some experts believe that Iran could develop a crude nuclear device more quickly than the three-year estimate, although there would be no guarantee that it would work. - **Enrichment progress:** Iran has enriched uranium to 60% purity, which is close to weapons-grade. However, going from 60% to 90% purity (weapons-grade) is still a significant technological hurdle, [according to The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/what-is-uranium-enrichment-and-how-is-it-used-for-nuclear-bombs-a-scientist-explains-259031). ---
**Author:** ![tjscott0](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/tjscott0/32/1083_2.png) [@tjscott0](https://discussion.fool.com/u/tjscott0)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 11:14pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/31 "2025-06-17T23:14:04Z")
This news concerns me. > **[US Intelligence: Iran Was Not Pursuing Nuclear Bomb Before Israel's Attack -...](https://news.antiwar.com/2025/06/17/us-intelligence-iran-was-not-pursuing-nuclear-bomb-before-israels-attack/)** > > Ahead of Israel's attacks on Iran, US intelligence assessed that Iran was not pursuing nuclear weapons and that even if it chose to do so, it would take up to three years away for Tehran to be able to produce and deliver a nuclear bomb against a... > **[America's spies say Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon. Trump dismisses...](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americas-spies-say-iran-wasnt-building-a-nuclear-weapon-trump-dismisses-that-assessment)** > > Trump's national intelligence director, Tulsi Gabbard, told Congress in March that Iran's supreme leader had not reauthorized the dormant program. > **[Trump splits with Gabbard’s assessment that Iran isn’t pursuing a nuke:...](https://nypost.com/2025/06/17/us-news/president-trump-splits-with-tulsi-gabbards-assessment-that-iran-isnt-pursuing-a-nuke-dont-care-what-she-said/)** > > President Trump broke with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s assessment that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon and warned that the theocratic regime is “close’… _ **“I don’t care what she said,” Trump told reporters. In his view, Iran was “very close” to having a nuclear bomb.** _ > **[Israel says Iran was racing toward a nuclear weapon. US intel says it was...](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-bomb-us-intelligence-years-away)** > > When Israel launched its series of strikes against Iran last week, it also issued a number of dire warnings about the country’s nuclear program, suggesting Iran was fast approaching a point of no return in its quest to obtain nuclear weapons and that... [https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-close-building-nuclear-bomb-013602936.html](https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-close-building-nuclear-bomb-013602936.html) So Israeli & US Intel differ. Would Israel fudge so that they could justify an attack? Bibi;“Trust me Donald.” DT:“Of course, my best friend.” ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 11:16pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/32 "2025-06-17T23:16:38Z")
I think US intel is trying to calm us. We are all stressing on this. That does no favors to anyone involved. The real answer is mixed. Crude bomb quickly. And Iran on a path we can not survive with in the long run. Israel wants regime change. They were successful in Syria. The Arabs want Iranian regime change. Many Arabs have died because of Iran. Before some powers in the ME regroup Israel is facilitating change. Saving lives. A solid majority of Iranians want regime change. ---
**Author:** ![buynholdisdead](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/buynholdisdead/32/12874_2.png) [@buynholdisdead](https://discussion.fool.com/u/buynholdisdead)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 11:17pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/33 "2025-06-17T23:17:36Z")
Hmmm who to trust Trump or Gabbard? Dang the quandry we are in. But watch, I bet Gabbard comes around to Trumps way of thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 11:18pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/34 "2025-06-17T23:18:27Z")
Gabbard is burning her bridges with Trump. She won’t be back in politics god willing. Wait a minute…Iran could have nukes next Tuesday. As of June 17, 2025, Tulsi Gabbard is the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). She assumed this role in 2025, having previously served as a U.S. Representative for Hawaii’s 2nd congressional district. She also holds the rank of lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve. ---
**Author:** ![tjscott0](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/tjscott0/32/1083_2.png) [@tjscott0](https://discussion.fool.com/u/tjscott0)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 11:23pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/35 "2025-06-17T23:23:36Z")
> [@buynholdisdead](#): > > But watch, I bet Gabbard comes around to Trumps way of thinking. Well sure if she wants to keep her job. She wasn’t in favor of the US adventures though she deployed twice. My gut tells me she would resign before being forced to agree with the president. ---
**Author:** ![tjscott0](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/tjscott0/32/1083_2.png) [@tjscott0](https://discussion.fool.com/u/tjscott0)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 12:00am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/36 "2025-06-18T00:00:42Z")
I thought we had just buried the neo-cons. Nope. > **[Pompeo: ‘Fantasy’ to think Iran poses no threat to US](https://www.yahoo.com/news/pompeo-fantasy-think-iran-poses-154636947.html)** > > Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo dismissed the notion that Iran is not a threat to the U.S., calling it a “fantasy.” Israel launched an attack Thursday night, striking Iran’s nuclear facilities and killing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps... [https://www.aol.com/news/mike-pompeo-israel-strikes-iran-090025224.html](https://www.aol.com/news/mike-pompeo-israel-strikes-iran-090025224.html) [https://thehill.com/policy/international/5327094-john-bolton-us-iran-nuclear-talks/](https://thehill.com/policy/international/5327094-john-bolton-us-iran-nuclear-talks/) # Bolton says US-Iran nuclear talks are ‘fruitless’ [https://thehill.com/policy/international/5349287-iran-israel-nuclear-attack-bolton/](https://thehill.com/policy/international/5349287-iran-israel-nuclear-attack-bolton/) # Bolton: ‘Never a chance’ Iran would reach deal acceptable to US Nikki Haley is really over the top. [https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/nikki-haley-blames-china-iran-and-russia-for-october-7-hamas-attacks-5762924](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/nikki-haley-blames-china-iran-and-russia-for-october-7-hamas-attacks-5762924) The neocons feed on this conflict. Time to finish Iran, Russia, & China. Nuclear war be damned! I guess we are back in the regime change business. ---
**Author:** ![steve203](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/steve203/32/3302_2.png) [@steve203](https://discussion.fool.com/u/steve203)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 1:28am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/38 "2025-06-18T01:28:51Z")
> [@tjscott0](#): > > Would Israel fudge so that they could justify an attack? > Bibi;“Trust me Donald.” > DT:“Of course, my best friend.” The “yellowcake letter”, that was investigated and pronounced a forgery. The “Prague meeting” between a 9/11 hijacker and an Iraqi intelligence officer, that “proved” a connection between 9/11 and Iraq, was debunked by the FBI, Czech Intelligence, and the Iraqi intelligence officer in question. The metal tubes that were supposed to be for uranium enrichment centrifuges. The drawings of “mobile bio-weapons labs” The documentation Iraq provided on their disarmament was dismissed. Reports by the UN inspectors that they weren’t finding anything were dismissed. Shiny-land rushed into war, before everything it claimed, was widely, and publicly, debunked. “Bibi” is using #43’s playbook. Only difference is, “Bibi” doesn’t have the means to finish the job, so will suck the US into finishing the war he started. Steve ---
**Author:** ![thegreatdane](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/thegreatdane/32/4269_2.png) [@thegreatdane](https://discussion.fool.com/u/thegreatdane)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 1:49am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/39 "2025-06-18T01:49:45Z")
🍰 Yellow cake, anyone? ---
**Author:** ![waterfell](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/waterfell/32/8050_2.png) [@waterfell](https://discussion.fool.com/u/waterfell)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 2:37am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/40 "2025-06-18T02:37:59Z")
> [@Leap1](#): > > Iran has enriched uranium to 60% purity, which is close to weapons-grade. However, going from 60% to 90% purity (weapons-grade) is still a significant technological hurdle, [according to The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/what-is-uranium-enrichment-and-how-is-it-used-for-nuclear-bombs-a-scientist-explains-259031). No, not really. As is stated in [the Conversation](https://theconversation.com/what-is-uranium-enrichment-and-how-is-it-used-for-nuclear-bombs-a-scientist-explains-259031) link you provide… **According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), [Iran has enriched large quantities of uranium to 60%](https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/documents/gov2023-8.pdf). It’s actually [easier](https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/conversion-enrichment-and-fabrication/uranium-enrichment#feedstock-and-separative-work-units) to go from an enrichment of 60% to 90% than it is to get to that initial 60%.** If you are enriching uranium, and go from the natural 0.7% to 60%, it takes something like 1250 separative work units (SWU) of effort. To go from 60% to 90%, only takes around 25 SWU. The higher the percentage, the easier it is to get even higher. If the Iranians have uranium at 60% concentration right now, they are over 95% of the way to get to weapons grade. Notice how the curve levels off once you get higher than 25% or so. ![f4f20d2a-04ad-4bda-b1bf-570db3b84cc9](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/original/3X/b/e/be087957649312a3c7ba02f3875bfb32041062d6.jpeg) Graph image from [here](https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/conversion-enrichment-and-fabrication/uranium-enrichment#feedstock-and-separative-work-units). ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ > [@Leap1](#): > > Some experts believe that Iran could develop a crude nuclear device more quickly than the three-year estimate, although there would be no guarantee that it would work. The bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima was a uranium bomb, and was considered so fool-proof, it was never tested first. The “gadget” that they detonated in the New Mexico desert was a plutonium device, and needed to be tested because of the sophisticated implosion configuration. But the Hiroshima “Little Boy” bomb was a gun-type uranium bomb, and it worked the first time it was tested over that Japanese city. If the Iranians decide to take out an Israeli city, there is no guarantee it will be delivered by missile. They could probably figure out a way to smuggle it in, and let it sit in some warehouse or somebody’s apartment, until they decide to set it off. \_ Pete ---
**Author:** ![captainccs](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/captainccs/32/3775_2.png) [@captainccs](https://discussion.fool.com/u/captainccs)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 8:03am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/43 "2025-06-18T08:03:01Z")
> [@steve203](#): > > If they got their dream, of a surrendered Iran, who would police it? The Iranian Opposition to the current regime? The Captain ---
**Author:** ![captainccs](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/captainccs/32/3775_2.png) [@captainccs](https://discussion.fool.com/u/captainccs)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 8:06am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160/44 "2025-06-18T08:06:32Z")
> [@tjscott0](#): > > So Israeli & US Intel differ. > Would Israel fudge so that they could justify an attack? Not to worry, a mushroom cloud will decide the winner. The Captain [Previous page](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160.md?page=1) [Next page](https://discussion.fool.com/t/ot-was-the-israeli-missile-attack-upon-iran-a-misstep/119160.md?page=3)