[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9zH8CJTPS8]
Zeihan:It’s not that we are running out of children on a global basis. That happened in the 1980’s. We are now running out of 50 year olds. So if there is no one to purchase the product. A decline in global demand. It no longer matters where you poke the system hard; tech, energy, finance, ag–the system is so fragile & vulnerable a cascade of events occurs. And if the Iran War turns off the oil. We are there now. Worse case, international trade grinds to a halt. Even transportation of goods within a nation becomes more difficult. And for some nations, not the US, an oil crisis means famine & starvation and deindustrialization.
They all agree China will be in a world of hurt as it depends on its exports to exist.
Best case scenario-we have 2 billion deaths, the world takes a step back technologically, globalization breaks into region trade, regional powers.
One of the fellows believes deflation hits the world and we return to 1929-1930.
And believes a nuclear war occurs started by a “sick man” nation in economic trouble and resulting civil unrest. Russia comes to mind. A war is already in progress next door. So escalation to distract the Russian people and maybe victory can be declared. And the Ukraine War is currently a stagnant stalemate tactically.
Zeihan interjects-Well if Putin falls the oligarchies will be infighting. And looking the barbarity that occurred between the White & Red Russians. I could see a nuke being used internally.
A different fellow suggests China will look to bit off pieces of weaken Russia to solve its oil & mineral problems.
tj-How does US respond to such action? Is the US even capable of responding?
Zeihan comment that the EU is morphing from an economic financial union to a political-military union.
tj-certainly the current US regime is pushing the EU/NATO toward forming its own military-strategtic autonomy. A return to European imperialism?
Another fellow thinks nation states will either cease to exist or have very little power over its populace. Any power it does have will be used to protect the elites and oligarchs.
All current political &economical systems are based on the growth of demand. But now global demand will be shrinking. Humans will have to invent new systems. But it will have to be done during societal upheaval.
tj- Perhaps demand does not decline precipitously? The top 10% consume 50-60%. They will still have wealth to consume. But the middle class will be eventually hollowed out. Most will be gutted economically. Some will be able to rise into the wealthy class. Our society will be feudal based on wealth rather than royal blood lines.
Zeihan & the fellows talked about how war has changed with the advent of drones. The battlefield has become a VERY dangerous place for armor and infantry. It has become EXTREMELY difficult perhaps even impossible to take ground. To control territory, boots on the ground are necessary. But now that is practically impossible.
If Iraq had the current drone technology in 2003. The US would have been defeated or at least stalemated.
tj-Solution. Robot soldiers.
Zeihan & the fellows believe some of the above occurs in 10 years.
If one believes Zeihan’s & his pals predictions. Commodities & precious metals is the path to save/protect one’s investments