I just decided to pull the trigger on IQ. The 20% pullback off highs from the IPO looks good. My wife, being from Hong Kong, is very happy being one of the free users of this service and loves it (contributing to the 44% ad revenue ;), and the information from this community makes me think it is a good bet to go up.
I used options as I usually do with a stock which I am willing to buy, but not afraid to see get away from me as long as I get a profit.
Sold the June 15 $17.50 Put for $2.00, giving me a buy price of $15.50 if I’m assigned, and 11.5% interest for 5 weeks if it gets away from me (in which case I’ll probably sell more puts)
2 Likes
I just decided to pull the trigger on IQ. The 20% pullback off highs from the IPO looks good. My wife, being from Hong Kong, is very happy being one of the free users of this service and loves it (contributing to the 44% ad revenue ;), and the information from this community makes me think it is a good bet to go up.
In the year of living dangerously…
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=IQ&cobra…
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=BIDU&cob…
not speaking for Saul, but he has mentioned not being a fan of the VIE/risk associated with China stocks, like BABA, BIDU, or IQ, etc…
I am an IQ fan, and there are a couple of us on the NPI board, fyi.
volfan has been mentioning the quiet period ends this week, so we may see an uptick in analyst coverage/noise as a result, which may get the stock and company more attention and get stock heading back up.
They look roughly like Netflix in 2014. With a mix of ad rev and sub rev, I believe they get the best of both worlds with that hybrid approach. Especially as CTV/video streaming grows and grows, there will be a limit to how many subscriptions a user is willing to pay for. I believe an ad-supported or lower-cost-ad-supported tier will be key in the long run to maximize users. The content on this site is also a bit of a mix of Youtube (user videos) and Netflix (actual produced content). IQ also producing their own content, stealing from the Netflix playbook.
programmatic ad tech plays into this, as the digital/data nature of the users will allow for more targeted ads, which brands will be willing to pay more for, vs throwing darts and running tv commercials on standard cable/networks.
Finally - the TAM of users in China is approx 250m to the 180m in USA alone. Add to that the tendency for China to be heavy mobile users in largest middle class in the world, and you see the upside. Likely IQ can’t match Netflix success or marketshare, as Netflix caught a lot of folks sleeping on their way to the top. Competition is Tencent Video and Alibaba’s Youku Tudou (sp?).
Dreamer
4 Likes
Likely IQ can’t match Netflix success or marketshare, as Netflix caught a lot of folks sleeping on their way to the top. Competition is Tencent Video and Alibaba’s Youku Tudou (sp?).
Dreamer
Dreamer:
We often hear justification for a Chinese stock that is the “NEXT…fill in the blank”…usually filled in with one of America’s best examples.
Since Chinese stocks aren’t welcomed here…how about posting this over at the NPI where we can put it through its paces…if you are truly high on it??
I don’t much care for the confirmation bias of associating it with NFLX…does it pass mustard on its own merits or not?
2 Likes
Yup, I think Netflix and IQ are totally different things. Netflix built the whole live streaming video subscription business model - they were a real first mover on the business model (not the technology - I actually was the architect of Starz Vongo which built a modern video streaming technology on a dinosaur business model, a number of years before)
IQ is a freemium model like most mobile game platforms.
Usually I like to invest in companies that I can forget about for 10 years. I feel like that, for example, about MongoDB and Pivotal.
I suspect IQ will be a total roller coaster ride - doing well, but overshooting in both directions, on sentiment. I will be a lot more active on this investment, and will use options to get income and possibly sell if it goes very high, or buy if it goes very low.
1 Like
Dreamer:
We often hear justification for a Chinese stock that is the “NEXT…fill in the blank”…usually filled in with one of America’s best examples.
Since Chinese stocks aren’t welcomed here…how about posting this over at the NPI where we can put it through its paces…if you are truly high on it??
I don’t much care for the confirmation bias of associating it with NFLX…does it pass mustard on its own merits or not?
I literally pointed the poster to NPI. 
I have been posting about IQ since their IPO.
In my very short post, I explained how it is, and isn’t, like Netflix. Benefit here is Netflix blazed trail for the model and the streaming industry for others to follow. I use it in the sense of “what does this company do?” positioning.
Looks like TMF recommends it in one of their ports. Will save the rest for NPI.
Dreamer
2 Likes
I appreciate discussion here on IQ. I’m not reading the NPI board, despite some interesting stock discussions, because I really dislike the immature political discussions and personal invective there.
78 Likes
I appreciate discussion here on IQ. I’m not reading the NPI board, despite some interesting stock discussions, because I really dislike the immature political discussions and personal invective therE
The irony does not escape me that your ad hominem attack is the very thing that you object to. But no problem we’ll do just fine without you
6 Likes
No hominem was attacked … the nature of the discussion on the board was characterized … and fairly. It is a frequent complaint and this behavior detracts substantially from the investment discussion on the board, not least of all by all the people it chases away who are therefore not participating.
44 Likes
Let’s not make Saul post requesting that this discussion be halted, please…now, back to IQ.
I would be quite surprised if the end of the IPO quiet period resulted in negative coverage from the IPO-associated investment banks. Some of the firms that weren’t impacted by the quiet period have already put out some ratings on IQ. Citigroup and BoA with $21 and $22 price targets, per this link: https://www.benzinga.com/stock/iq#/NASDAQ
Also, not sure there were any responses any of the places I posted this, but it appears that IQ and JD.com partnered up for a dual-membership, which reminds me a lot of Amazon’s Prime offering. Here’s the news release for that, from April 27th:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/iqiyi-and-jdcom-anno…
With the way the market has been acting lately, I’m not sure that there’s anything really company-related that has caused IQ’s share price to fall. The revenue growth from their initial quarter reporting as a stand-alone company was enough to entice me to enter at $18.35 in the after-hours that day. I have subsequently added some June $20 calls with the share price having fallen. I may begin to close out part of that position tomorrow afternoon/Wednesday/Thursday depending on analyst and share price action.
volfan84
12 Likes
I like Saul have no interest I Chinese stocks but I’m ok with just ignoring the thread as long as it doesn’t bug Saul.
1 Like
Volfan says I’m not sure that there’s anything really company-related that has caused IQ’s share price to fall.
IQ is the “Netflix of China”, which is a phrase that will let people dream about huge returns for quite some time before giving up. That is to say, earnings probably won’t matter too much. This feels like a stock you could buy and hold onto to for 3-5 years and come out smelling good.
I would be quite surprised if the end of the IPO quiet period resulted in negative coverage from the IPO-associated investment banks.
Goldman Sachs with a $23 price target with their coverage initiation.
IQiyi +1.9% on initiation at 41% upside https://seekingalpha.com/news/3353710?source=ansh $IQ
1 Like
I appreciate discussion here on IQ. I’m not reading the NPI board, despite some interesting stock discussions, because I really dislike the immature political discussions and personal invective therE
The irony does not escape me that your ad hominem attack is the very thing that you object to. But no problem we’ll do just fine without you
@dumaflotchie - I didn’t attack you personally or anyone else on the NPI board. Ad hominem means attacking the person rather than attacking their idea. My problem with NPI is that there is constant attacking of individuals, esp. tamhas, and constant airing of political views in an immature “us vs them” way, which has nothing to do with “New Paradigm Investing” which is the theme of the board.
30 Likes
@dumaflotchie - I didn’t attack you personally or anyone else on the NPI board. Ad hominem means attacking the person rather than attacking their idea. My problem with NPI is that there is constant attacking of individuals, esp. tamhas, and constant airing of political views in an immature “us vs them” way, which has nothing to do with “New Paradigm Investing” which is the theme of the board.
Good grief Steppin…you still slamming the NPI…you are on Saul’s board but bringing up another board…no need to continue to spread your disinformation.
No worries…the NPI will survive without you.
3 Likes
Duma, why don’t you do us all a favor and move on. This board is not the place for this.
39 Likes
Duma, why don’t you do us all a favor and move on. This board is not the place for this.
But attacking another board is fine?
I appreciate discussion here on IQ. I’m not reading the NPI board, despite some interesting stock discussions, because I really dislike the immature political discussions and personal invective there.
http://discussion.fool.com/i-appreciate-discussion-here-on-iq-i3…
4 Likes
Goldman Sachs with a $23 price target with their coverage initiation.
That’s a contrarian indicator. I don’t trust GS with their individual stock coverage as they are often the other side of the table than where they claim to be.
A
1 Like
NPI is referenced here with some frequency. Are you suggesting that only positive reviews are allowed?
2 Likes