Plug-in hybrid cars

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
#64

Because Wendy was looking at non-SUV cars. Bringing in SUVs is off topic per the OP.

Was she? I went back and looked at the OP, and there’s nothing there that specifies what type of car she was talking about.

Regardless, a Model 3 is a very different type of car than a Highlander - so that comparison doesn’t really tell you very much about the question that arose in this thread: whether the cost savings from EV’s compared to ICE’s makes supplementing an EV with an occasional ICE rental for long trips economically viable.

Having gone back and looked at Wendy’s initial post, I’m going to make a mostly unsubstantiated guess that it wouldn’t make sense for her. A plug-in hybrid might not make sense, either. Based entirely on her comment that her already-five-year-old-car will outlast her. Which suggests (at least to me) that Wendy isn’t going to be putting a ton of miles on any new car on a regular basis. And if you’re not putting that many miles on your car, you’re not going to get the fuel (and probably other) savings fast enough to justify the higher initial outlay, no matter what your time value of money is.**

How about it, Wendy? Would you mind sharing what you think your rough annual miles driven would be?

Albaby

** That’s why I don’t personally own an EV. I live close to virtually all of the destinations I travel to, and we have a larger second car for long-distance family road trips. But I put fewer than 6K miles on my car each year, so it makes very little sense for me to pay an EV premium that I’ll never get paid back.

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#65

You are missing he point. This does not split out EV and ICE driving that the working paper did.

I did not miss the point. I’ll put it in an equation for you since you are an engineer. Since you are a nuclear power expert and car maintenance expert, you may also be a VMT expert.

total VMT = ICE VMT + EV VMT

Now those are broad categories. We could then break down ICE VMT to light duty, medium duty and heavy duty vehicles. Even further differentiating between cars, truck, SUVs, etc. But for the purposes of the study, ICE and EV VMT will do.

The point of posting the link to total VMT is that it was significantly distorted for two years during Covid. Can you assume the VMT for each type of vehicle showed that same declines percentage-wise as the overall VMT? Maybe or maybe not. The last full year data that isn’t affected by Covid is 2019.

PSU

2 Likes
#66

Silly because Wendy was looking at non-SUV cars. Bringing in SUVs is off topic per the OP.

So you are suggesting that you have not once on these boards strayed from the topic per the OP. I admire your ability to stick to the topic 100% of the time.

PSU

#67

I did not miss the point. I’ll put it in an equation for you since you are an engineer. Since you are a nuclear power expert and car maintenance expert, you may also be a VMT expert.

total VMT = ICE VMT + EV VMT

===========================================

The point I was referring to was not VMT.

The study was done based on PG&E’s electrical data from 2014 to 2017. I was telling DB2 that that is old data and probably the reason that the working paper was not published. Look at page 6 of the study.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28451/w284…

At least I read the study and not make up stories about VMT in years not included in the study.

Jaak

#68

This research by Parker et al. concludes that “considering the full distribution of vehicle miles traveled suggests that buying an EV saves money for over 17% of households.”

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920921001…

DB2

#69

This research by Parker et al. concludes that "considering the full distribution of vehicle miles traveled suggests that buying an EV saves money for over 17% of households."

Or you could read that as “buying an EV is a bad idea for 87% of households.”

intercst

1 Like
#70

Looking at Germany, Halba et al. find that “EVs are, on average, driven shorter distances than conventional vehicles, both in terms of annual and single-day mileage, even if costs are identical.”

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920921000…

DB2

#71

This research by Parker et al. concludes that “considering the full distribution of vehicle miles traveled suggests that buying an EV saves money for over 17% of households.”

=====================================

With or without State/Federal subsidies?

Jaak

#72

JaaK"Brake wear is the most expensive part of normal automobile service. For my ICE vehicles from the past I paid about $1000 for front brake rotors, calipers, pads, brake fluid and labor. For all 4 wheels it would $2000. Currently it would cost even more."

You drive ‘premium’ cars. I have 148,000 miles on my GM Malibu 2016 and the dealer said brakes are 1/2 worn. Good shape. Last Malibu had new brake pads and rotors turned at 135,000 miles for $400 at the dealer.

12 year old Prius will likely never need new brakes.

“Reduced wear of brakes is the most significant maintenance item for saving money on any vehicle - ICE, Hybrid or EV.”

Drive conservatively and get lots of miles on brakes. Drive like an idiot or in city traffic all the time, behind idiots who go from full gas pedal to full brake pedal on the road…and you’ll be fixing brakes soon.

And no…the 2007 Prius has never had anything over a hundred break in 25 years. However the hybrid battery just gave up the ghost and that was a $3000 repair. Dealer said they tend to die at 10-12 years. That dwarfs any repair. Oil change once a year. New air filter is $14 at Autozone and easy to replace yourself every few years.

Jaak:“The cost of engine oil changes, transmission oil changes, coolant changes, air filters, fuel filters and drive belts are insignificant compared to brakes. EVs do not have any of these costs.”

Oh, but they do. They have brakes. Even worse, they are full of electronics that can die or hiccup. EVs have battery cooling systems, a/c compressors, heating cooling fans, power windows, steering mechanisms, front axles and suspension parts, rear suspension/shocks, etc.

I’ve never had to replace a fuel filter. All the gas pumps have decent filters these days to avoid junk in your gas.

Worse, a typical EV might need a new $15,000-$25,000 battery after 10-12 years. Who knows. When it dies, your car is worth about $2000…until you fix it.

t.

1 Like
#73

Jaak:“I know what my cars need and when they need it. I do not want to be stranded on some out of the way place with broken water hose, bad battery, broken drive belt, flat tire, or any other common hazards with the many systems and components. I work closely with an independent auto mechanic only - I do not use dealers service centers. Therefore, I change the coolant, brake fluid, brake pads, and some other consumables more frequently than manufacturer/dealer recommendations based on wear/deterioration that I see.”

Fine, but you’ll probably find the nail in the tire could care less about how new your tire is. I’ve had almost brand new tires ruined by nail in sidewall that couldn’t be fixed safely…to tires with 40,000.

But…unlike most new car owners, I actually have a compact spare tire in my 2016 Malibu. Paid extra to get the tire, jack, etc, in the back of the car. The normal Malibu comes with a can of ‘inflator’ and an inflator air pump. Useless for cut tire or nail in sidewall.

Yeah, I don’t want to be stranded out in boonies…so dealer checks belts and hoses every oil change. Checks fluids. Amp tests battery to see if it is about to die.

Coolant lasts 100K miles, unlike old days. Changing it sooner does nothing.

I haven’t had a car ‘die on me’ in decades. (It was usually the crappy GM alternator that died on older GM cars that gave you about 10 miles to find a repair station at just over 70K miles). The Prius 12v little gel=cell died and car wouldn’t start in garage. Jump started it and drove to dealer. Fixed.

I’ve driven through EVERY COUNTY in the USA on mostly secondary roads - through the boonies - through the cities - everywhere. I have no issues with driving modern cars from GM. But I’ve probably averaged a flat tire once every 50,000 miles but that happens on every car. Put decent tires on cars, too.

t.

2 Likes
#74

The most ironic thing about the new credits is that a used Tesla will get most people a $4000 tax credit but a new one will not. Used Teslas are going to increase in value next year.

I also thought this … but then I read the new law. And it isn’t the case. Only used cars UNDER $25k qualify for the $4000 tax credit, and they only qualify on the FIRST sale. The vast majority of first sale Teslas are selling for more than $25k.

1 Like
#75

Which, of course, gets mostly eaten up if you end up spending $4,500 on renting an ICE twice a year over that 15-year lifetime. It then disappears entirely for cars if you also use a more realistic figure for annual miles driven, rather than the 15K figure that CR uses, since people driving EV’s aren’t going to drive as much (on average) as people driving ICE’s.

I drive my EV more than I used to drive my ICE. And we, as a family, choose to use our EVs as much as possible when compared to our remaining ICE vehicle. The incremental cost for using EV is far lower than for using ICE.

Also, if you do need to rent an ICE for vacations, it would only be in years where the vacation requires a long drive. But people vary their vacations over 15 years. Sometimes the vacation consist of a short drive, sometimes it consists of a flight to somewhere, and sometimes it consists of a cruise. And, yes, sometimes it consists of a long drive. But not every single year for 15 years.

2 Likes
#76

Polestar 2.

How confident are you that it will be delivered in 2022? (before the current tax credit expires)

#77

I haven’t had a car ‘die on me’ in decades.

Me too! My '72 Dodge Charger had a voltage regulator that would die periodically and would strand me on the side of the road. After it happened twice, I carried a spare voltage regulator with me in the glove box.

#78

Detroit dealership says late November. shrug

I read that it is based on the contract, not delivery, but what I does anyone know at this point.

#79

Speaking of new EVs, this one just started accepting reservations today:

https://www.polestar.com/us/polestar-6

Looking to compete with the Tesla Roadster. Reservations will cost you $25k with the final price expected to be $200k.

I have to say that I am more partial to the full drop top style of the P6 than the T-top (MR2 looking) visual I get from the Roadster - but then I’ve never been overly fond of the exterior presentation of Teslas, excluding the model S.

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#80

Well, there goes my Polestar 2 pre-order.

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-cred…

Needed to have had a binding non-refundable contract or have put 5% down.

Sure would have been nice if they had put out this notice prior to yesterday.

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#81

Sure would have been nice if they had put out this notice prior to yesterday.

Yeah.

“The Department of Energy has provided a list of Model Year 2022 and early Model Year 2023 electric vehicles that may meet the final assembly requirement.”

https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/inflation-reduction-act

Not much choice if you want that tax credit this year.

Isn’t this new tax credit just going to kill EV and PHEV sales for the remainder of 2022?

Maybe that’s the goal? I don’t see the miniscule EV sales to be a significant driver of inflation.

#82

Isn’t this new tax credit just going to kill EV and PHEV sales for the remainder of 2022?

Pretty unlikely. Remember, the overwhelming majority of EV sales in the U.S. are Teslas. Teslas haven’t been eligible for the tax credits for a while now. So this isn’t really much of a change for those purchasers.

Albaby

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#83

Pretty unlikely. Remember, the overwhelming majority of EV sales in the U.S. are Teslas. Teslas haven’t been eligible for the tax credits for a while now. So this isn’t really much of a change for those purchasers.

Tesla become eligible for tax credits in 2023. That’s the point.