Plug-in hybrid cars

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
#72

JaaK"Brake wear is the most expensive part of normal automobile service. For my ICE vehicles from the past I paid about $1000 for front brake rotors, calipers, pads, brake fluid and labor. For all 4 wheels it would $2000. Currently it would cost even more."

You drive ‘premium’ cars. I have 148,000 miles on my GM Malibu 2016 and the dealer said brakes are 1/2 worn. Good shape. Last Malibu had new brake pads and rotors turned at 135,000 miles for $400 at the dealer.

12 year old Prius will likely never need new brakes.

“Reduced wear of brakes is the most significant maintenance item for saving money on any vehicle - ICE, Hybrid or EV.”

Drive conservatively and get lots of miles on brakes. Drive like an idiot or in city traffic all the time, behind idiots who go from full gas pedal to full brake pedal on the road…and you’ll be fixing brakes soon.

And no…the 2007 Prius has never had anything over a hundred break in 25 years. However the hybrid battery just gave up the ghost and that was a $3000 repair. Dealer said they tend to die at 10-12 years. That dwarfs any repair. Oil change once a year. New air filter is $14 at Autozone and easy to replace yourself every few years.

Jaak:“The cost of engine oil changes, transmission oil changes, coolant changes, air filters, fuel filters and drive belts are insignificant compared to brakes. EVs do not have any of these costs.”

Oh, but they do. They have brakes. Even worse, they are full of electronics that can die or hiccup. EVs have battery cooling systems, a/c compressors, heating cooling fans, power windows, steering mechanisms, front axles and suspension parts, rear suspension/shocks, etc.

I’ve never had to replace a fuel filter. All the gas pumps have decent filters these days to avoid junk in your gas.

Worse, a typical EV might need a new $15,000-$25,000 battery after 10-12 years. Who knows. When it dies, your car is worth about $2000…until you fix it.

t.

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#73

Jaak:“I know what my cars need and when they need it. I do not want to be stranded on some out of the way place with broken water hose, bad battery, broken drive belt, flat tire, or any other common hazards with the many systems and components. I work closely with an independent auto mechanic only - I do not use dealers service centers. Therefore, I change the coolant, brake fluid, brake pads, and some other consumables more frequently than manufacturer/dealer recommendations based on wear/deterioration that I see.”

Fine, but you’ll probably find the nail in the tire could care less about how new your tire is. I’ve had almost brand new tires ruined by nail in sidewall that couldn’t be fixed safely…to tires with 40,000.

But…unlike most new car owners, I actually have a compact spare tire in my 2016 Malibu. Paid extra to get the tire, jack, etc, in the back of the car. The normal Malibu comes with a can of ‘inflator’ and an inflator air pump. Useless for cut tire or nail in sidewall.

Yeah, I don’t want to be stranded out in boonies…so dealer checks belts and hoses every oil change. Checks fluids. Amp tests battery to see if it is about to die.

Coolant lasts 100K miles, unlike old days. Changing it sooner does nothing.

I haven’t had a car ‘die on me’ in decades. (It was usually the crappy GM alternator that died on older GM cars that gave you about 10 miles to find a repair station at just over 70K miles). The Prius 12v little gel=cell died and car wouldn’t start in garage. Jump started it and drove to dealer. Fixed.

I’ve driven through EVERY COUNTY in the USA on mostly secondary roads - through the boonies - through the cities - everywhere. I have no issues with driving modern cars from GM. But I’ve probably averaged a flat tire once every 50,000 miles but that happens on every car. Put decent tires on cars, too.

t.

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#74

The most ironic thing about the new credits is that a used Tesla will get most people a $4000 tax credit but a new one will not. Used Teslas are going to increase in value next year.

I also thought this … but then I read the new law. And it isn’t the case. Only used cars UNDER $25k qualify for the $4000 tax credit, and they only qualify on the FIRST sale. The vast majority of first sale Teslas are selling for more than $25k.

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#75

Which, of course, gets mostly eaten up if you end up spending $4,500 on renting an ICE twice a year over that 15-year lifetime. It then disappears entirely for cars if you also use a more realistic figure for annual miles driven, rather than the 15K figure that CR uses, since people driving EV’s aren’t going to drive as much (on average) as people driving ICE’s.

I drive my EV more than I used to drive my ICE. And we, as a family, choose to use our EVs as much as possible when compared to our remaining ICE vehicle. The incremental cost for using EV is far lower than for using ICE.

Also, if you do need to rent an ICE for vacations, it would only be in years where the vacation requires a long drive. But people vary their vacations over 15 years. Sometimes the vacation consist of a short drive, sometimes it consists of a flight to somewhere, and sometimes it consists of a cruise. And, yes, sometimes it consists of a long drive. But not every single year for 15 years.

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#76

Polestar 2.

How confident are you that it will be delivered in 2022? (before the current tax credit expires)

#77

I haven’t had a car ‘die on me’ in decades.

Me too! My '72 Dodge Charger had a voltage regulator that would die periodically and would strand me on the side of the road. After it happened twice, I carried a spare voltage regulator with me in the glove box.

#78

Detroit dealership says late November. shrug

I read that it is based on the contract, not delivery, but what I does anyone know at this point.

#79

Speaking of new EVs, this one just started accepting reservations today:

https://www.polestar.com/us/polestar-6

Looking to compete with the Tesla Roadster. Reservations will cost you $25k with the final price expected to be $200k.

I have to say that I am more partial to the full drop top style of the P6 than the T-top (MR2 looking) visual I get from the Roadster - but then I’ve never been overly fond of the exterior presentation of Teslas, excluding the model S.

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#80

Well, there goes my Polestar 2 pre-order.

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-cred…

Needed to have had a binding non-refundable contract or have put 5% down.

Sure would have been nice if they had put out this notice prior to yesterday.

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#81

Sure would have been nice if they had put out this notice prior to yesterday.

Yeah.

“The Department of Energy has provided a list of Model Year 2022 and early Model Year 2023 electric vehicles that may meet the final assembly requirement.”

https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/inflation-reduction-act

Not much choice if you want that tax credit this year.

Isn’t this new tax credit just going to kill EV and PHEV sales for the remainder of 2022?

Maybe that’s the goal? I don’t see the miniscule EV sales to be a significant driver of inflation.

#82

Isn’t this new tax credit just going to kill EV and PHEV sales for the remainder of 2022?

Pretty unlikely. Remember, the overwhelming majority of EV sales in the U.S. are Teslas. Teslas haven’t been eligible for the tax credits for a while now. So this isn’t really much of a change for those purchasers.

Albaby

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#83

Pretty unlikely. Remember, the overwhelming majority of EV sales in the U.S. are Teslas. Teslas haven’t been eligible for the tax credits for a while now. So this isn’t really much of a change for those purchasers.

Tesla become eligible for tax credits in 2023. That’s the point.

#84

Tesla become eligible for tax credits in 2023. That’s the point.

That wasn’t what I was responding to. The poster noted (correctly) that because of the way the bill was drafted, most vehicles that would have been eligible for tax credits in 2022 are no longer going to be eligible for them. The poster asked whether that would reduce sales of EV’s in 2022. I was pointing out that since Tesla is the lion’s share of EV sales, and Tesla would not have been eligible for tax credits prior to the IRA anyway, the change of credit eligibility for 2022 will probably not have an appreciable impact on 2022 sales.

Albaby

3 Likes
#85

I was pointing out that since Tesla is the lion’s share of EV sales, and Tesla would not have been eligible for tax credits prior to the IRA anyway, the change of credit eligibility for 2022 will probably not have an appreciable impact on 2022 sales.

I think Adrian’s point is that the new law may push some of the 2022 Tesla sales into 2023 - when they might again become eligible for the tax credit.

This new EV law is terrible, both micro and macro, for the EV market - if the goal is to increase EV conversion. If the goal is to encourage domestic manufacturing of EVs, I don’t think it is going to compel the desired change.

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#86

I think Adrian’s point is that the new law may push some of the 2022 Tesla sales into 2023 - when they might again become eligible for the tax credit.

Ah. That seems a bit unlikely, given Tesla’s wait list. Some of their models have a wait list extending into 2023 already, and all of their sales (in the U.S. at least) appear output constrained rather than lack of demand. So if there are any buyers currently on the wait list who want to delay until 2023, there’s almost certainly a customer willing to take that 2022 delivery in their place.

This new EV law is terrible, both micro and macro, for the EV market - if the goal is to increase EV conversion. If the goal is to encourage domestic manufacturing of EVs, I don’t think it is going to compel the desired change.

Of course it’s terrible for conversion. The overwhelming majority of the EV’s being sold in the U.S. were already being sold without the tax credit, which means that the overwhelming majority of those tax credits will be “wasted” - money flowing out the door that doesn’t increase adoption of EVs. Given that EVs are now an established, mainstream product (comprising about 13% of total sales in Europe), this bill is entirely about trying to incentivize global auto companies to relocate some of their EV production domestically to the U.S., rather than have a wave of European and Chinese imports come in. It’s industrial policy disguised as an environmental measure.

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#87

This new EV law is terrible, both micro and macro, for the EV market - if the goal is to increase EV conversion.

Why do you need incentives to buy when production cannot meet demand?

I was listening to a Tesla channel presenter on uTube, “The new law is great for Tesla, they will be able to raise prices and margins!” As a Tesla long I love it but as an economist it’s STOOOPID!

BTW, Elon Musk has said that EVs don’t need incentives. What kind of capitalist is that? LOL

The Captain

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#88

It’s industrial policy disguised as an environmental measure.

Right on target! Protectionism.

The Captain

#89

The poster noted (correctly) that because of the way the bill was drafted, most vehicles that would have been eligible for tax credits in 2022 are no longer going to be eligible for them. The poster asked whether that would reduce sales of EV’s in 2022. I was pointing out that since Tesla is the lion’s share of EV sales, and Tesla would not have been eligible for tax credits prior to the IRA anyway, the change of credit eligibility for 2022 will probably not have an appreciable impact on 2022 sales.

But for upstart EV companies, the change might be devastating - not much impact on the total EV market, but protecting and enhancing Tesla’s market share.

Successful, enduring monopolies - without government protection and possibly even enforcement - are rare.

#90

BTW, Elon Musk has said that EVs don’t need incentives. What kind of capitalist is that? LOL

The smart kind that knows when to back credits when they benefit you, and oppose them when they don’t.

Elon Musk’s growing empire is fueled by $4.9 billion in government subsidies
https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-201…

Tesla Motors Inc., SolarCity Corp. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp., known as SpaceX, together have benefited from an estimated $4.9 billion in government support, according to data compiled by The Times. The figure underscores a common theme running through his emerging empire: a public-private financing model underpinning long-shot start-ups.

“He definitely goes where there is government money,” said Dan Dolev, an analyst at Jefferies Equity Research. “That’s a great strategy, but the government will cut you off one day.”

Elon Musk says XXXXX presidency won’t hurt Tesla — here’s why
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-decision-on-…

But Musk said eliminating ZEV credits, if it should ever happen, would actually improve Tesla’s competitive position in the market.

…

Automakers who are unable to earn enough ZEV credits toward compliance can choose to buy the credits from other companies.

Because Tesla, naturally, only sells electric cars in states supporting the mandate, it always has an excess of ZEV credit that it then sells to other automakers. Tesla made $139 million in the third quarter from selling ZEV credits.

But because of the way the program is set up, there’s an oversupply of ZEV credits flooding the market. That’s made it harder for Tesla to consistently turn a profit from selling them. For example, ZEV credits were so negligible in the second quarter that Tesla didn’t even break them out.

…

“If General Motors or Ford or somebody else makes electric vehicles, they get to monetize their ZEV credit at 100 cents on the dollar, so if there are two ZEV credits per vehicle, General Motors would have a $5,000 cost advantage over Tesla.”

“If people are concerned about Tesla incentives, they should be concerned with, ‘Well, how does Tesla overcome the disadvantage of EV incentives,’” Musk continued.

Musk is anything but dumb. He certainly lacks wisdom on occasion but he is clearly a smart businessman - and one who knows when to tact when the wind changes on the benefits of tax credits and the competition.

#91

I think Adrian’s point is that the new law may push some of the 2022 Tesla sales into 2023 - when they might again become eligible for the tax credit.

Unlikely given the huge backlog queue. Not only does this mean way more people waiting to buy than cars available, if someone gets to the front of the queue, they are unlikely to be willing to go to the back of the queue in order to not buy one now.

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