Politics Enter How US Move Goods in USA

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Politics does enter the economic world. Example: US tariff & potential ban on Chinese EVs. The result of that imposes economic cost on the US vehicle consumer and environmental cost on the nation.

I move now to trucking.
https://insideevs.com/news/795603/ev-truck-satisfaction-2026/
The Results Are In: 93% of Electric Truck Owners Say They’re Not Going Back

The majority of operators praised the reliability, cost savings, and comfort of EV trucks. However, some challenges persist.

Electric trucking is slowly but surely picking up pace, and a new survey from Germany now shows that there are significant benefits to switching over to battery-powered big rigs.

The high initial purchase price, as well as the complications associated with the expansion of the grid connection, were the main negative points.

Well the distance traveled in Europe is likely less than the USA. And the US is lacking EV semi charging also. But range will improve with better battery innovation. And charging infrastructure is a matter of time and money. I suspect the US trucking corporation will migrate to EV semis due to fuel costs. And Iran war may accelerate that trend.

Also trucking corporations are interested in cutting labor costs too.

Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire fossil-fuel investor Tom Steyer have each vowed to reverse the California DMV policy authorizing autonomous truck testing. Though framed publicly as a safety issue, the candidates occasionally reveal that the real conflict is between labor and technology.

“We should be making sure that we don’t make dramatic changes in the way that people work,” Steyer said. Not to be outdone, Congressman Ro Khanna, who represents the state’s 17th district in Washington, said he will “fight for legislation to stand up for truck drivers.”

Though Becerra, Steyer, and Khanna’s automation aversion could be interpreted as naked deference to the Teamsters, it also touches on some of the thorniest economic and social questions of our time. They aren’t wrong to consider truck driving among the most remunerative non-college jobs Americans can find today. They aren’t crazy to think that automation will disrupt the industry. But they show strikingly little interest in how the freight industry’s economic dynamics affect other Californians and Americans more broadly.

The transportation sector is a prime example of the Baumol effect: costs for labor-intensive services rise with the tide of the economy, even when worker productivity stays flat. This benefits truck drivers but costs everyone else.

I’m pretty sure this political lobbying effort will fail as labor is much less influential than 50 years ago. And the cost savings potential is so great.

Methinks semi EV transition first then autonomous trucking though I expect to be dead before the latter becomes prevalent.

It is sometimes hard to separate politics/lobbying & economics. Politics won on Chinese EVs in US. And I predict politics will lose on autonomous trucking.

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What about the cost of unintended consequences? Don’t know how much more an EV semi weighs compared to an ICE EV, but it has to be more. So, how much to upgrade safety barriers, how often will they be rerouted due to bridge weight limitations, etc. Re-charging will be an issue for quit awhile, but at what point will a fully loaded EV semi not make it over some Rocky Mountain pass in the middle of winter because of range? Adding more batteries can’t be the answer because at some point the extra weight of the extra batteries doesn’t significantly increase range. Still not sold on autonomous. Can’t tell you the number of times I’ve had delivery trucks pull into my long driveway looking for either my neighbor (their driveway is 10 feet before mine) or my in-laws (their neighborhood entrance is 1/4 mile down the road, the end of my drive happens to end at their backyard).

A lot of things to work out. Interested in the tech but don’t think it is ready for the big time.

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Agreed. How many times have we been told it’s just a matter of more training data? We’ve been promised L5 autonomy for nearly a decade now. Billions of miles of real world data from the likes of Tesla, Waymo, etc. Billions of miles of simulated data from the likes of Nvidia. As a driver assistance its very helpful. As a means of completely displacing the human its’s been a disaster.

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Electric trucks and buses works best for short range routes where you can recharge overnight. Or maybe have backup vehicles for afternoon shift.

50,000 lb load limit for long range over the road trucking is a problem. Adding 20,000 lb of batteries is not very efficient. Remember those trucks pulling two trailers. Imagine one of those filled w batteries. Battery unit could be dropped off for charging and truck continues on its way w fresh battery trailer.

This model works best for railroads where wt is less of a concern. A tender filled w batteries is very possible.

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I agree that EV trucks works best for short haul. I think going for long haul routes, at least for the foreseeable future, is a waste of effort.

Regarding the two-trailer scenario. You can either have two tractors pull two trailers with two human drivers. Or one tractor pull two trailers with one human driver. The tandem approach cuts human cost in half, and substantially lowers the fuel cost as well. Having an EV tractor pull two trailers would cut total aero drag, which is a big deal. As well as remove the extra weight of the second EV tractor, also a big deal. But you do have the problem of the added battery weight still. We are not there yet.

We already electrify nearly all trains. Diesel-electric locomotives are nearly all of them, and their efficiency is eclipsed only by boats. Fully electric locomotives are powered by overhead lines or electrified rails today. We have very few steam locomotives left. Full-battery trains are not realistic - that is why they all have onboard diesel generators. Even today, batteries are nowhere near good enough.

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Diesel electric locomotives are made by Wabtec (Westinghouse Air Brake) who bought GEs leading locomotive business when they sold things to pay down debt. The other one is GM EMD now owned by Caterpillar. They are experimenting w alternatives to reduce emissions for climate change.

Locomotives use dynamic braking. Electric motors on the wheels are used to generate electricity which is fed to large resistors to dissipate energy as heat. They have experimental units w batteries to save this electricity reducing diesel consumption.

They are also experimenting w natural gas and hydrogen fueled locomotives. Mostly railroads are investing in more efficient diesel locomotives. In a good year US produces 500 locomotives per year. But rebuilds keeping locomotive frame but installing more efficient diesel is most common. Both companies make most money on parts and maintenance.

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The weight of the semi tractor is actually immaterial! What counts is the fully loaded rig which for semis has been upgraded from 80 to 82 thousand pounds for EV semis.

Google AI:

That is correct. In the United States, federal law (under the FAST Act and subsequent amendments) allows electric battery-powered semi-trucks to operate at a gross vehicle weight (GVW) of up to 82,000 pounds, rather than the standard 80,000-pound limit.

This 2,000-pound increase is a crucial regulatory adjustment designed specifically for EVs.
Key Points on EV Semi Weight

  • Purpose: The extra allowance compensates for the heavy weight of battery packs compared to diesel engines, helping prevent a significant reduction in payload capacity.

  • The “Immaterial” Tractor Weight: While the tractor portion of an EV is often 5,000 lbs heavier than a diesel, the combined allowable GVW of 82,000 lbs (tractor, trailer, and cargo) keeps the operational load competitive.

  • Payload Parity: Companies like Tesla have designed their electric semis to operate within this 82,000 lb limit while maintaining comparable cargo capacity to traditional trucks.

  • State Alignment: States are actively updating their local laws to match this federal 82,000-lb limit for electric and natural gas vehicles on interstate highways.

The goal of this policy is to facilitate the adoption of electric trucks without forcing fleets to sacrifice revenue-generating cargo weight.

The Captain

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And then we have all those bridges out there with 5 to 7 ton load limits. I guess that means no trucks.

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Energy use when going over the Rockies or the Sierra Nevada specifically envisioned:

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EVs operate with the same weight restrictions as ICE 18-wheelers, so if you’re happy with current truck safety, the “safety barriers” need not change.

To the extent that the EV battery is heavier than a diesel engine and 200 gallons of fuel, an EV many have a reduced freight load capacity. But few trucks operate at the maximum 80,000 lb gross weight. A lot of cargo is light weight and the operating constraint is the cubic foot volume of the trailer, not the weight.

intercst

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Dissipating the “potential energy” on the way down the hill is even more dramatic (i.e., in this case, the runaway train derailment triggered a natural gas pipeline explosion.)

intercst

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Talking about mountain passes…

  • A diesel truck going up the mountain burns lots of fuel and on the way down it wears down the breaks.
  • A semi on the way up it uses a lot of battery power and on the way down it recharges the batteries with regenerative braking prolonging the useful life of the breaks.

The Captain

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Orinoco Mining, a US Steel subsidiary, used diesel electric trains to haul iron ore from Cerro Bolivar to Puerto Ordaz for transshipment to the USA. The trains used regenerative braking but not having batteries to store the electricity they dissipated it with large resistance coils cooled by noisy fans. :locomotive:

The Orinoco Mining public relations manager explained why Puerto Ordaz had the highest birth rate in Venezuela. The trains came down the hill at night making a terrific racket. Woken in the middle of the night, what else are you going to do? :baby_bottle:

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You could also set up truck swaps every 400 miles, Ala pony express, the fleet would be constantly moving except for the trailer stop.

Jk

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