Poll: Age old question

If Markets decline, is Berkshire immune to recession/ market sell-off?

  • Well… it will still beat SP500
  • No It will be sliding similar to sp500 or worse
  • Berkshire is immune, it will keep moving up; Buy, buy, buy

0 voters

My expectation:

At the early part of the slide, perhaps a short period of relative strength: stable or falling less than other things.
While “flight to safety” lasts but before “gotta sell everything” starts.
We have seen that year to date, in fact.

Then, during a serious market slide, Berkshire will likely slide about the same amount as most other US large caps.

Shortly after a market slide, Berkshire will rise from the bottom, but will rise more slowly than a lot of very junky stocks will, for maybe 2-3 months.

Later, maybe 12-18 months from the bottom: Berkshire will fully rebound and more, to new highs.
The broad US market might or might not do that for quite a long time.

I wouldn’t wager on any of these things, but they have happened repeatedly in the past and wouldn’t be a surprise.

While the price is sliding, it’s always good to remind yourself that bear markets, especially lasting ones, are very good for the value of a share of Berkshire.



Re: Jim’s response -

The generals are the last to fall. (Old investing quote)

Professor Talon

1 Like

This question is best answered by Jim’s post. I had mentioned something similar to that and asked Jim to reply earlier this year (about a month ago) but he didn’t reply.

But my view is that what he just wrote, although somewhat simplified, has a high probability.