Poll: At $345 per B

Are you…

  • Adding
  • Holding
  • Trimming

0 voters

I’m I-don’t-know ing

Definitely in the “I Don’t Know” camp…

Back in 2020 (boy do I keep self-shaming myself on this one), I sold off some Berkshire into QQEW and VOO. I was very highly concentrated in Berk at the time (well beyond the boundaries of most here).

Anyway, I was really really ‘smart’ and then became really really ‘dumb’ (smart = lucky, dumb = unlucky… or perhaps dumb).

These days, I’ve been trimming the VOO quite significantly and building cash. It’s not very exciting but keeps me out of trouble. I did pick up some DLTR, GOOG and COST along the way and they’ll go into the “ignore for 20 years” pile.

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For whatever it’s worth, consider my rule of thumb never to lighten up during a strong ongoing rally:

All time high daily midpoint was set March 22.
The required size of pullback using daily midpoint happened Tuesday April 5th, the day before your poll was posted.
So someone following that rule would have sold at $517200 ($344.80 per B) at close.
If they were nimble they might have managed an exit something nearer the daily midpoint which was $520290.

That’s not to say that it’s a good time to sell, as such. Future prices could do anything.
Merely that, statistically speaking, if you were going to sell anyway, it’s usually better to sell after a rally seems to have ended than too early during a strong rally.

Jim

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