https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12/16/business/jobs-report-economy
U.S. Unemployment Rate Rises, a Warning Sign for the Economy
- World Recession
- US Recession
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voters
Little to do with the war, the globe is already there. The US is about to follow.
Great Depression II.
Not many choices here. How about adding
- Iran recession
- No recession
DB2
I suspect your view is influenced by your media choices. For instance, today:
The New York Times:
Trumpâs Oil-Route Demands Draw Cool Response
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/16/world/iran-war-trump-oil-lebanon
The Wall Street Journal:
U.S. Allies Work on Reopening Hormuz After Trump Pressure
Those are just the headlines, of course, but the articles which follow are pretty much in line with the fewer, bolder words at the top.
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And vice versa.
However, assuming a recession does conflict with the general consensus. For example, yesterday Goldman Sachs said they see the S&P500 at 7600 later this year. Of course they may be wrong, but taking a poll with a predetermined outcome (recession) is pretty weak sauce.
DB2
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Along with technology, GS sees energy as the big driver:
- Energy leads asset returns this year
Across asset classes, energy-related investments have delivered the strongest performance so far this year.
Crude oil has surged roughly 70%, while energy equities have gained nearly 30%, far outpacing broader equity benchmarks and other asset classes.
So, yes, the market could do well this year with the great rise in oil/gas and may avert recession on that great rise alone. Maybe.
Higher oil and gas prices are great and they also mean greater increases in prices throughout the economy, which is also great! More money for businesses means higher stock market values, even if the average Joe doesnât have quite as muchâŚ
Pete
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They also stated in the same report that a severe oil shortage could drop the S&P to 5400 ~ another 19% drop from where we are today.
Now that is the sort of prediction designed to cover all your bases!
Hawkwin
Who predicts the S&P500 will climb above 7000 if earnings grow at 10% this year but if the Iran conflict drags on for another month, we risk a recession.
Who knew I could predict as well as Goldman Sachs!
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That would help, but donât forget that the energy sector only makes up a little over 3% of the S&P500, so its effects are swamped by changes in things like the technology and financial sectors.
DB2
Whose unloading on who?
Gs
Earnings in the S&P 500 Index are expected to rise 20% in the next 12 months, data compiled by Morgan Stanley show. Historically, the reading was higher only when the economy emerged out of recessions.
âThis supports our stance that the probability remains low for this oil spike to end the business cycle,â Morgan Stanley chief investment officer and chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson said in a March 23 note to clientsâŚ
Should oil trade at $110 a barrel for the rest of the year, earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies could shed as much as 5 percentage points, data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. show.
DB2