After following the referred link Li Lu holdings on dataroma,
$2.8B AUM, only 6 holdings, ~40% in Micron , ~ 3X his commitment to BRK/b
Pabrai also very heavy concentrated in Micron at > than 70%
Anyone have an opinion on Micron?
ciao
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Meta is worth the risk of a small allocation.
Those are false weightings due to the fact that they are both heavily invested in foreign securities that do not show-up in 13F’s.
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Did anyone listen to a recent talk by Guy Spier? In the video, he seems to be implying, if I hear it correctly, that Munger encouraged Pabrai when Pabrai wanted to sell Baba and buy Tencent, while Munger himself bought more baba.
Maybe I hear it wrong but it seems that what’s Guy is saying.
Video link: https://youtu.be/4h3zUCe8lA4
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<First piqued for me looking at Li Lu’s portfolio. I’ve be watching a lot of his talks and following him since. Interesting guy, has evolved into a younger version of Munger starting out as a Grahamite and has dinner with Charlie every Tuesday night apparently.
He is not like Munger, he traded a lot more frequent than Munger ever did. Look at his following trade on Meta.
Li Lu - Himalaya Capital Management
Holding/activity history for Meta Platforms Inc. (FB)
Period Shares % of Portfolio Activity % Change to Portfolio Reported Price
2022 Q1 876,200 8.19 $222.36
2021 Q4 876,200 11.06 Add 53.02% 3.83 $336.35
2021 Q3 572,600 9.05 $339.39
2021 Q2 572,600 9.72 $347.71
2021 Q1 572,600 8.53 Reduce 40.37% 5.78 $294.53
2020 Q4 960,300 14.45 Reduce 27.85% 5.58 $273.16
2020 Q3 1,331,000 26.58 Add 118.59% 14.42 $261.90
2020 Q2 608,900 13.00 Buy 13.00 $227.07
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I got an Oculus 2 today and this showed me where Meta is going. Will be huge, huge. Whoever grabs the most eyeballs in Metaverse, wins, my bet is Meta. VR is spectacular. And it’s a super point-of-sale environment.
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Philip Morris ==> Altria was more disgusting.
But any giant public company changing the corporate name that owns the giant corporate assets is a red flag, with an infinitesimal number of exceptions… non-archimedean in some cases. (trying to be funny with my applied math reference)
DER
< I got an Oculus 2 today and this showed me where Meta is going. Will be huge, huge. >
I would like to try one too. But I don’t play game or subscribe to some online service. What use is it besides gaming today?
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I am bit surprised to see FB/Googl valuation viz-a-viz AAPL. If you are someone sitting with large gains in AAPL, remove tax considerations, would you swap some for GOOGL or FB?
What use is it besides gaming today?
I use it for virtual travel and exploration.
Todays take from Morningstar on Meta & a $384 fair value est.
“Meta’s FB stock price has declined significantly over the past eight months as increasing competition and further enforcement of data privacy policies have slowed revenue growth and pressured margins. But we think the market is ignoring the high probability that double-digit advertising revenue growth will return on the back of the platform’s network effect moat source, which has helped further increase the number of users and engagement on its apps. We believe Meta shares, trading at half of our $384 fair value estimate, are very attractive.
Meta is the largest social network in the world, with over 3.6 billion monthly active users across its Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp apps. “
ciao
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Moats are good. Nasty ones are even more effective.
Let’s just say it’s a reasonably effective moat, but I choose not to be anywhere near it : )
I’m with you on that. “Nasty” moats may put off not only competitors but also potential investors.
Tom
I was curious and looked up the GOOGL LEAPS Call options? I saw the Jun. 2024 Strike 100 Call option priced around $30.60.
Break even appears 13.4% above current price of $115.12 over 23 months. Any thoughts or interest in these from Board members? Thanks
I was curious and looked up the GOOGL LEAPS Call options? I saw the Jun. 2024 Strike 100 Call option priced around $30.60.
Break even appears 13.4% above current price of $115.12 over 23 months. Any thoughts or interest in these from Board members?
It’s a bit more aggressive than necessary?
As the strike price rises and the time frame shortens, it becomes less and less like a prudent allocation of capital and more like a speculation.
I consider it a spectrum: a stock can be thought of as an infinitely long duration call option with a strike price of zero : )
So, my advice would be, if you’re going to do it, go longer dated and lower strike.
After all, it doesn’t take very much leverage at all to turn a pleasant rate of return into an excellent one.
For example, I believe June 2024 options are available now, with strikes as low as $55.
The other advice would be, don’t do it with too much of your portfolio.
Prices might be anything as the expiry date approaches, so you want to be able to come up with the
money to exercise or roll the options if necessary, in case you need to buy more time to let the investment thesis works out.
And as always: as the saying goes, leverage is the only way smart people go broke.
Like alcohol, a little can be fun and even enrich the life, but a bit more can be bad.
I have some (post split) $65 calls, as it happens. But it’s about 3% of my portfolio.
My expectation is to roll them once from Jan 2024 to January or June 2026, and that by then the position will have worked out nicely.
I can follow the progress of the underlying business for the next 3-4 years and decide then how much I want to keep longer term.
Jim
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Well I’m sold on the metaverse. I had a great time with my daughter riding roller coasters whilst being chased by a T - Rex and Velociraptors, such fun. (Think Jurassic Park in full 360)
The Oculus headset is very light, a snug fit and very easy to use with the handhelds. In summary. It works.
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Well I’m sold on the metaverse. I had a great time with my daughter…
Sounds good!
I tried to do my own calculations about what I think are attractive stocks, similar to Manlobbi’s way (but using IV5), and while the winner was BABA (which I hesitate to buy, for entirely other than financial reasons) with my growth assumptions the No.2 was META, with a clear advantage over GOOGL, the stock everybody here loves so much (and as I am not familiar with Mark Zuckerberg luckily I have no reason to share Jim’s resentment).
… I am not familiar with Mark Zuckerberg luckily I have no reason to share Jim’s resentment
Good executive summary here : )
https://xkcd.com/1978/
Jim
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Google recently announced a new board member who used to be a partner at Goldman. This guy used to be the boss who runs the division where I used to work. To me, he’s just another greedy manager who basically destroyed the Goldman Sachs while making himself rich. When he was there, he was all about cost cutting and “using technology to replace people”, but the truth is he was pushing out a lot of good traders who make money and he get paid based on how much money he saved for the firm, but after a few years really the tech didn’t get better at all and the company makes less and less money.
It’s certainly suspicious that now google is freeze hiring and now need someone like him who had experience in cost cutting, and they announced a Wall Street guy joining the board a week before the ER, and splitting the stock. All this doesn’t feel bullish to me.
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