Poll: What is our recession outlook for the US?

Meaning the TACO back and forth action delayed the actual full brunt of the tariffs till the beginning of August. I could not see Trump taking June and July to hesitate.

Unemployment is getting more problematic.
The housing market has begun to slump.
The US debt is rising by over $2 trillion per year.

Without raising corporate taxes the US economy will go over the edge.

The odds the US government defaults on the debt should be of major concern.

@DrBob2 There has been a delay. Things are beginning to get worse. Expect the worst.

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And the future does contain a recession, as is always the case. By ‘expect the worst’ do you mean you still expect a global great depression?

DB2

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Yes

BTW as a conservative, didn’t you feel there was far too much debt? What do you think the results will be?

I’ve felt that way for a long time. I remember back in the Obama era singing ‘Sixteen trillion and what do you get? Another day older and deeper in debt’.

DB2

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Then why do you keep voting for the party that keeps adding to it the most? Sorry, I don’t believe you are actually concerned about the debt.

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Over the decades I’ve come to the conclusions that a) it doesn’t make a significant difference which party is in control – the debt keeps going up – b) I could be wrong and c) I have no leverage to make a difference.

DB2

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Yes the debt keeps going up. This time economic instability is being added in.

Quibble. You have as much leverage as any other topic on which you decide to vote - otherwise why vote at all.

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WSJ had article yesterday that boxboard (corrugated boxes) are closing due to slowing economy. (But also Amazon reducing use of boxes. Also plants are old and need major investment to continue.). Rail shipments down a bit.

Everyone agrees economy is slowing. Interest rate cuts will help. Tech sector continues to prosper so far. How does anyone guess the net gdp result?

Here’s an interesting article on national debt by party. It supports your argument that it doesn’t make much difference who is in control.

Democrats vs. Republicans: Who Had More National Debt?

The “Party in Control” is that of the financiers of political elections seeking payback — the party of soft corruption and anti-democracy. They fund both parties, and the return on that investment can be immense.

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Not really true. Only one party has had a surplus in over 50 years.

And in the years they didn’t have a surplus, they reduced the deficit compared to the other party.

As you well know.

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The U.S. economy is very close to falling into a damaging contraction — and many states are already experiencing a recession, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Zandi estimates that 22 states plus the District of Columbia are now experiencing persistent economic weakness and job losses that are likely to continue. Another 13 states are treading water, he noted.

problems are driven largely by a mix of slowing immigration, increasing tariffs and federal job cuts, Zandi argues

Looks like our federal policies are having an impact.

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I am a lot less articulate than anyone else here. I act like I listen to no one when I profoundly indeed listen. I know much of the time whats what.

You are the opposite. Stop that nonsense

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Those guys had the apparatus. Its been hijacked. Those guys just dont want to pay taxes. Otherwise the rational ones voices have been drowned out. Most of them were flying blind.

The golden goose is dead. No more golden eggs.

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Figures don’t lie, but liars do figure.

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Q4 2025 gdp growth was today revised down:

Oops, double yowza.

Q4 GDP now estimated at 0.7%, because international trade numbers zig and zag.

No one thought such trade could be so volatile (well, everyone but 1 low character person).

Maybe we weren’t so off target to think a possible recession in 2H2025?

We are certainly giving our best for a garbage economy now.

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And,

Alright then.

When we forecast a recession in our poll, we probably didn’t have “starts middle east war” in our journals from the peace, antiwar candidate (if you did, congrats).

But we all did have low ethics and dim, so still counts.

I suppose we just had to get a good start on wars in our own cities before we went international.

Is taco an option?

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Some taco…and the beat goes on.

And it ticked down just a little more for good measure.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025

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