Poll: ZM Security posts

In the last week or so we’ve had several threads and dozens of posts on ZM security issues. Some think Zoom’s handling of security has been unconscionable or even malicious, and others think we’re just seeing growing pains that will get sorted out.

Many of you know more than I do and have weighed in, but honestly I’m not really learning much about this issue…it seems like one opinion against another.

Personally, I think it would be great to discuss other aspects of Zoom, like how to estimate how many customers they might be adding now (especially customers with more than 10 employees of which they currently have 81,900).

That said, discussing Zoom security concerns is not off topic. So I want to be democratic about it.

Do you think we should stop these ZM security threads unless someone has something really new to add?

  • Yes - They’re not helping me (anymore)
  • No - I’d like to hear more about ZM security issues

0 voters

2 Likes

Frankly, I’m not keen on hearing more unfounded speculations about how many customers will result from this boost in downloads since we have no history on which to model it and there are so many unknowns as to make the effort no better than wild speculation.

Whereas, while there is certainly redundancy in the security posts, there continues to be new information produced.

14 Likes

Frankly, I’m not keen on hearing more unfounded speculations about how many customers will result from this boost in downloads since we have no history on which to model it and there are so many unknowns as to make the effort no better than wild speculation.

I agree about unfounded speculations. I think we can do better than that. But maybe you’re right…we might just not have enough information. We have a lot of knowns (in bold) but maybe they don’t help us get to the unknowns (italics).

Last Q
~60k downloads /day
10 million daily users
81,900 customers with > 10 employees
$188m revenue (Avg customer: roughly $2300/q, or about $9200/year)

Now
~2 million downloads /day (maybe not every day but some)
200 million daily users (https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/2/21204018/zoom-security-pri…)
??? customers with > 10 employees
??? revenue

The problem is, the user to revenue relationship is anything but 1:1.

I think we could do better if we knew how many customers (with more than 10 employees) they’re adding, but I don’t have a great way to estimate that, so I’ll drop it unless anyone has a breakthrough.

Bear

2 Likes

~60k downloads /day
10 million daily users
81,900 customers with > 10 employees
$188m revenue

Now
~2 million downloads /day
200 million daily users

Hi Bear,
Interesting figures. Back when they had 10 million daily users, they only had 82 thousand customers with over 10 employees. Now, 1% of 10 million is 100 thousand, so they had less than 1.0% of their daily users (0.8% to be exact), producing that $188 million in revenue. That seems like a very low bar. If they get even 0.5% (half of one percent) out of those current 200 million daily users being customers with over 10 employees, we are talking about increasing from 82,000 customers with over 10 employees …to a million customers with over 10 employees.
Saul

12 Likes

If they get even 0.5% (half of one percent) out of those current 200 million daily users being customers with over 10 employees, we are talking about increasing from 82,000 customers with over 10 employees …to a million customers with over 10 employees.

Thanks, Saul. But the 190 million new users don’t look anything like their old users. Before covid, most Zoom users had a business reason for joining a Zoom chat. Most people hadn’t heard of Zoom, there were no Zoom happy hours or relatives chatting on Zoom, and organizations (like schools) weren’t getting Zoom for free. All of that is happening now. So I really don’t think they’ll convert 0.5%. I don’t think 1 in every 200 of their current users is a company with over 10 employees.

So is it 1 in 1,000? I kinda still don’t think so. Even if it were 1 in 10,000 (0.01%), that would still result in 19,000 customers added this Q, compared to 7,800 last Q.

Just some thoughts. Really, if people aren’t interested, we can drop this. We really won’t know for 2 months, I guess.

Bear

2 Likes

I don’t think 1 in every 200 of their current users is a company with over 10 employees.

So is it 1 in 1,000? I kinda still don’t think so. Even if it were 1 in 10,000 (0.01%), that would still result in 19,000 customers added this Q, compared to 7,800 last Q.

I really will drop this, but I feel like I need to clarify so people don’t read me wrong: I am very bullish on Zoom. It’s a 15% position (my third largest, as it has moved in front of ESTC) and I just added to it in the premarket at $113!

And though I think growth this Q may be less gaudy than some are expecting, that just means the growth story will play out over a longer period of time. Not necessarily a bad thing.

Fool on, and Zoom on.

Bear

2 Likes