Polymarket, again

So there’s news, which may not come as a shock to those who have been paying attention to this government lately:

Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture

A brand new account made some suspiciously timed bets on Polymarket.

Shortly before the US military launched an attack on Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro, an account on Polymarket made some very suspiciously timed investments. The prediction market had been running bets on when or if Maduro would be removed from power, with prices for “out by January 31, 2026” as low as $0.07 late Friday evening. But within 24 hours of the military action, a newly created account invested tens of thousands of dollars, racking up several hundred thousand in profits.

The account was created less than a week ago and invested over $30,000 the day before the assault, turning a profit of over $408,000. The activity was flagged on social media, with people speculating that the person placing the bet was acting on inside information and perhaps even worked at the Pentagon. Joe Pompliano, an investor and podcaster, quickly pointed out on X that “Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged

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This should come as no surprise. The Prez has been signalling for months he planned to do something about Venezuela–especially to stem the flow of drugs from there.

Those who heeded the warning made money. To those who missed the opportunity, its more sour grapes.

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There are lots of someones making money betting on Maduro’s capture. Vulture funds have been gobbling up Venezuela’s debt since the return of he who shall remain nameless.

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Read an article today about Polymarket, how it was started, etc., and that it was banned in the USA for 3 years and just recently became available again with in the past month or two, IIRC. The ban came about because they didn’t register with some oversight/regulation board.

One thing that caught my attention, a comment from the founder. He basically wants “insider trading” to occur. The reasoning is that is a better way to know what is really happening behind closed doors or what the news won’t cover/report.

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