No. 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13
The Captain
1 Like
Same as my answer.
It took a minute, but we got to agreement.
So we have shown that it is possible to agree from time to time, here.
Yay!
A key distinction seems to be what is theoretically feasible versus what has been demonstrated (at some scale) and maybe what is nearing demonstration (at some scale).
One truth: Tesla generates discussion, and therefore entertainment.
And a humanoid robot cannot produce 100’s of meters of fabric per day.
Mike
5 Likes
It can by operating a Jacquard loom. 
The Captain
So can a cat. A JC can NOT.
1 Like
I doubt that they actually have the dexterity to thread all those spools and fix a broken thread.
Mike
1 Like
How much will it cost to buy, own, and maintain? No matter how advanced a humanoid robot may be, there’s a very limited market unless there’s a need that can’t be replaced by something cheaper. As long as low-skilled labor is cheap, humanoid robots will end up being a Segway with dumb legs.
Humanoid robots could be relegated to being companions for incels who can’t interact with human women. Seems like there’s currently a strong market for that.
4 Likes
Do the numbers!
If a compact car can be made for $30K an Optimus might be made for half that. It might cost another $15K to own, and maintain. If it wears out in three years that’s
$15K + $15K * 3 = $60K total, $20K per year
In a factory setting it might work 12 to 18 hours a day, let’s average it to 15 six days a week.
15 * 6 * 52 = 4,680 hours per year.
$20K / 4,680 hours = $4.2735 per hour. Call it $5.
Many dangerous work settings require safety measures that would not be needed for Optimus. No payroll or other labor related expenses. Cheaper than illegal immigrants!
The Captain
A sex doll? Hmmm…
1 Like
I think Musk has suggested they’ll cost between 20k - 30k. Given the Cybertruck was originally priced at $39,900, we should expect Optimus to be around 50k.
Some safety measures will be needed, otherwise you lose money on maintenance and repair costs. Also, they’re robots, not Jesus…they’ll make mistakes.
How long will it take to make Optimus as productive as a human? A very long time.
I think that is too high but using that as input the cost per hour goes from $4.2735 per hour (call it $5) to $6.8376 (call it $7).
Get in line, you get stock options and stories to tell your grand kids about building the Foundation Series Optimus Robots! The FSOR Brigade!
The Captain
1 Like
Note to innocent bystanders this is not math.
2 Likes
With population collapse in most developed countries and aging demographics, Optimus is badly needed.
It will have a huge deflationary effect. Tesla is going to internally use them, starting this year.
What if it is 95% as productive in year 1, 97% as productive in year 10, 99% as productive in year 20, and 100% as productive in 100 years?
95% as productive may be sufficient to start with.
Beware, it’s Back of the Envelope Witchcraft Voodoo [BEWV] 
The Captain
What if each one has to be rebuilt every five weeks because they keep blowing circuit boards that then cause the robot to self-destruct? Or, if one catches fire, it spreads quickly to all of the robots? A virus could also cause major damage…
Then it won’t be 95% as productive. If it’s only 10% or 20% as productive, then they won’t be used.
In 10 years, they will be self healing like humans.
1 Like
Then so would cars also be “self healing”. More interesting is a basic question: How long to go from “really busted” to “full health”? Fair question, but using Optimus-Warrior Update would make a great replacement for the military hiring shortfalls. Plus, no training needed. No need for medics, VA, etc for robots in the military.
That is, until they get hacked. THEN what do you do?
You must be very young. Humans are not fully self healing. Metal and plastic will never be self healing.
1 Like