With Appian shares seem to return closer to the earth yesterday and today after almost exiting the stratosphere, I am thinking a basket of Talend, Appian, and Alteryx might be a decent idea. I keep thinking of all 3 companies as playing in basically the same space, and amongst the 3 don’t see one clear likely winner, thus the basket idea (similar to Jason Moser’s “War on Cash” basket of MA, V, SQ, and PYPL, often-mentioned on the Market Foolery and Motley Fool Money podcasts). I am thinking about a 1.2-1.5% sized position for each might be decent.
Any thoughts about such an approach giving my portfolio some di-“worse”-ification?
Can anyone on the board sell me on one of these 3 options being a far better option than the others?
I know that Saul owns some Talend (medium-sized 6-ish% position) and Alteryx (big 11+% position).
For context, I have about 14 “meaningfully-sized” stock positions presently, accounting for just under 90% of the total.
1 NVDA 26.85% (darn thing keeps growing)
2 ANET 9.66%
3 MELI 9.37%
4 AAPL 7.67% (trimmed in late-Dec.)
5 UBNT 6.51%
6 SHOP 5.56%
7 SQ 4.48% (+ ~0.9% for Jan 2019 SQ call option position)
8 BOFI 3.99%
9 CGNX 3.73%
10 TTD 3.16% (added a bit in late-Dec.)
11 SWIR 2.73%
12 IRBT 2.25%
13 HUBS 1.99%
14 CELG 1.72%
also FMI calls 2.5-ish% (present “market” value of various strikes/expirations)
and KMI Jan 2020 calls 0.4%
I am thinking a basket of Talend, Appian, and Alteryx might be a decent idea
Doesn’t Appian do something fundamentally different? I thought it allows users to create apps without writing code. The other two are in data integration, with Talend focusing on a platform and Alteryx…well, they do data integration too I guess.
I might consider Alteryx if it wasn’t so expensive, but as Saul just pointed out, it’s been going straight up for several months and at a PS of ~13, I think it’s a bit pricey.
Speaking of pricey, even after the big pull back, Appian still sports a PS of almost 12.
Talend’s PS is 8.5
It’s hard to suss out the subtleties between Talend and Alteryx, so I just own Talend because the price is so much better.
With Appian allowing creation of apps without coding and with Alteryx enabling “citizen data scientists”, I think of both as basically empowering folks in the business world that don’t have “coding chops” to be able to use data for all sorts of different purposes. Talend’s main thing is ETL (extract, transform, load), which also helps empower folks to use data, without having to figure out on their own how to get that data. Thus, I view all 3 as enablers of the use of data within business environments.
The P/S ratio comparisons are worthwhile. I might combine that comparison with the relative revenue growth rates and maybe some view of gross margins of each to determine some slightly different weighting for each in the event that I follow through with the idea of buying this “basket”.
This article on Seeking Alpha discusses Appian’s recent rise and has a decent chart comparing Appian’s valuation to several other 2017 IPOs, including Alteryx and Mulesoft, which have been discussed here.
As a refinement of this basket idea, I might consider replacing Appian with Mulesoft, unless Appian falls back to maybe $25-29/share.
Whoops, forgot to paste the link:
Appian: Don’t Get Caught When The Music Stops https://seekingalpha.com/article/4137130?source=ansh $APPN