Pre-crimes?

Pre-crime is a term coined by Philip K. Dick.

An algorithm can predict future crimes with 90% accuracy. Here’s why the creator thinks the tech won’t be abused
www.sciencefocus.com/news/algorithm-predict-future-crimes-90…
The AI model was tested across eight cities in the US and predicts future crimes with 80 to 90 per cent accuracy, without falling foul of bias. Prof Ishanu Chattopadhyay leads the ZeD Lab at the University of Chicago, where he studies algorithms and data. He tells us about the AI he has developed that can forecast crimes being committed days before they actually occur…

"So we start with this event log and then digitise the city into small areas of about two blocks by two blocks – about 1,000 feet [300 metres] across. And in one of those tiles, we’ll see this time series of these different events, like violent crimes, property crimes, homicides and so on. This results in tens of thousands of time series that are coevolving…

“People have concerns that this will be used as a tool to put people in jail before they commit crimes. That’s not going to happen, as it doesn’t have any capability to do that. It just predicts an event at a particular location. It doesn’t tell you who is going to commit the event or the exact dynamics or mechanics of the events.”

DB2

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It just predicts an event at a particular location. It doesn’t tell you who is going to commit the event or the exact dynamics or mechanics of the events.

How about spending money more wisely to get children educated. That would bring down crime substantially. This AI wont bring down crime.

What can be done? If a young woman becomes pregnant and she gets HUD housing, let her live with her boyfriend and child. Because a couple that can live together will raise themselves out of poverty, raise their child better and more often than not move out of HUD housing. This goes as much for suburban neighborhoods that can have high rates of poverty.

How about spending on childcare at much higher levels? When we say we can not afford it what happens?

Google results…

How much does the US spend annually on prisons?
$81 billion a year
The U.S. spends $81 billion a year on mass incarceration, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, and that figure might be an underestimate. In 2017, the Prison Policy Initiative estimated the actual cost on state and federal governments and impacted families is roughly $182 billion.Apr 7, 2021

Yep much of the $81 b in direct costs would not be saved. We have the highest incarceration rate in the world so a good bit of the $81 b would be saved. This is longer term 20 year planning.

The indirect costs go well over $81 b. Meaning these guys are unproductive and not paying taxes. That changes. Unless you could making license plates in prison as the economy you want.

The current bill for childcare is $600 b over ten years or $60 billion per year.

But there is more of a return, it is not just poor children not getting into trouble later in life. There are middle class kids that would get a better chance in life to be productive, educated and pay more in taxes.

In other words demand side econ promotes a hell of a better US economy.

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It looks like the algorithm is leaving out illegal firearms sales, tax fraud, insurance fraud, real estate fraud, and other financial crimes. If Wall Street were has heavily policed as many minority neighborhoods are, we would have a very different world.

I highly recommend reading Cathy O’Neil’s book Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy.

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"People have concerns that this will be used as a tool to put people in jail before they commit crimes. That’s not going to happen, as it doesn’t have any capability to do that.

Nonsense. Add in the personal behavioral profiles of people, and you can get a prediction when certain elements of motive, means, and opportunity, come together.

This is the sort of issue with proposed gun control legislation, for instance. The Constitution says you cannot be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.

So, denying anyone their “right” to have a carload of assault rifles and a couple thousand rounds of ammo, on the evidence he’s funny in the head, becomes controversial, because being funny in the head is not a crime. Gunning down 40 people is a crime, but, until the guy actually does it, he can’t be prosecuted.

Same thing with the present case in Michigan: members of a nutter militia on trial for plotting to kidnap and kill the Gov. The FBI grabbed them before they actually did it. So, the perp’s defense is they talk a big game, but would never have actually done it.

In the first trial, two were acquitted, while the jury hung on the other two. The second trial for the other two was going last week. Expected to go to the jury next Monday or Tuesday.

Steve

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