Pre-Earnings run-up, post-earnings plummet?

Well, as we have landed in the heady mid-300s, approaching earnings, is anyone betting on a post-earnings plummet? Seems like invariably Lisa delivers ambitious, optimistic but rational forward guidance and the market heads for the hills. If it happens again I think it will rebound eventually, but I actually sold a little here.

I have yet to sell any of my umpteen shares. I’ve only ever sold once, back when Intel announced their Core breakthrough, at which time I sold every share I had. At the time I think I netted about 250k profit.

It will almost certainly be my heirs who ultimately have to make the sell decision and they’ll benefit from the new cost basis at my date of death (unless that rule goes away in the name of decreasing the national debt or funding Social Security).

I still have confidence in Lisa Su, and AMD’s hopefully still bright future in A.I., but the recent explosive run-up seems a little unjustified and “irrationally exuberant”.

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