Predictions From Nine Months Ago

On the morning of Sept. 14, 2019, we had a poster write the following:

I know that this board does not include technical analysis, but IBD has basically issued a sell report on most of the stocks discussed on this board. Most stocks have fallen below their 50 day and 200 day Moving average on significant weekly volume. This normally means at least a few quarters before these stocks return to their glory, and of course this depends on their performance exceeding expectations. A few of these stocks might be large winners, but most will never regain their highs. That’s post 59730. It was at a tough time for our stocks. Remember that.

I responded (59782) with specific contrary predictions. I haven’t exactly run out the clock on any of them yet, but let’s see how I did anyway. First, the predictions:

1) The companies I refer to, hereafter referred to as “the companies,” by ticker symbol, are, in alphabetical order:

AYX
ESTC
MDB
OKTA
TTD
TWLO
ZS

I stipulate this list because without doing so, it is impossible to agree or disagree on whether a prediction turns out to be accurate . . . .

2) I predict that within 1 year, most of the companies will be 30% higher than their close as of Friday, September 13, 2019.

3) I predict that within 2 years, most of the companies will have achieved new all-time highs on their way to whatever their eventual fate is, and a minority at least will have done within a year. This is stark contrast to your prediction of “never.”

4) I predict that over the next 10 years, there will be more than one instance of volatility such that most of the companies will be cut by 40% or more – perhaps much more – from their highs . . . .

5) I predict that a minority of the companies will lose our collective interest, and my personal investment, over the next year . . . .

And today, less than 9 months later?


        Close   Close         All Time High    Drops of 
Stock  9/13/19  6/10/20 Gain  Since 9/13/19?  40% or more?
AYX	112.17  146.1	30%        No             Yes
ESTC	 93.75   81.99	-13%       No             Yes
MDB	123.29  208.18	69%       Yes             Yes
OKTA	102.09  181.45	78%       Yes              No
TTD	207.49  368.52	78%       Yes             Yes
TWLO	109.59  203.08	85%       Yes             Yes
ZS	 47.48  105.72	123%      Yes             Yes, Intraday
Average Return           64%
S&P 500	3007.39	3190.14   6%

Prediction #1: Correct: Most are indeed 30% higher or more, and as a group, they are more than twice that, well ahead of schedule.
Prediction #2: Correct: Most have since achieved a new all-time high, even more ahead of schedule.
Prediction #3: Correct so far: This is a 10-year prediction, yet even after only nine months, most of the stocks have experienced a 40%+ fall. Hey, look, I predicted volatility! Why did I do that? Because it is normal, had happened before, will happen again . . . and yet, when it does, some FUD creeps in, which is why I wrote this post in the first place.

Does this mean tomorrow will be a new record-setter? No, it does not. It means that it is going to be a bumpy ride going forward. Like, heart-in-your-throat volatile. But, if you pay attention, it might just be worth it (see above).

Oh, almost forgot:
Prediction #4: Correct: The board has lost interest in one or more of the above companies. I know I have, and we’ve picked up a few notable names that aren’t on that list that would improve returns had I added them. And yet, what a wonderful group, including some of the ones we don’t talk much about anymore. Still, these predictions were getting dated, so it was time to look in on them.

Considering how I did, I’m going to put out my shingle as the New Oracle of Fooldom. Let me know if there’s anything else that’s utterly obvious you need me to predict, and I’m there. Here’s a freebie: Another leg down in the market is coming! A big one!

No, really, it is. It always is. Don’t worry, I won’t come back and check on that one.

Cheers,
Wot

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Hi Wot, wasn’t that amazing… that someone would have the utter and complete foolishness to predict… IBD has basically issued a sell report on most of the stocks discussed on this board… (so) most will never regain their highs.

It’s that NEVER that just blows me away. Most will NEVER regain their highs! And he thought he was so smart preaching to us poor sinners.

Saul

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There is a mutual fund whose charter is stock picking by the IBD CANSLIM method. Their ticker is CANGX. What most of us here do part-time, they are paid salaries to do full time.

How does that work? You can pull up a chart and compare their performance to the SP500 or Nasdaq. Don’t even bother comparing to the stocks discussed here. Not even close.

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There is a mutual fund whose charter is stock picking by the IBD CANSLIM method. Their ticker is CANGX. What most of us here do part-time, they are paid salaries to do full time. How does that work? You can pull up a chart and compare their performance to the SP500 or Nasdaq. Don’t even bother comparing to the stocks discussed here. Not even close.

Hi ibuildthings, you made me curious so I looked it up. It’s down 8.3% ytd while our portfolios are up between 75% and 95%. Do you know, we are really pretty good. :grinning:

(Not fair, really, because no mutual fund managers can have results that compare to ours because they have to carry 50 or so stocks at least, and have to “diversify,” while we can pick the best of the best.)

Saul

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I responded (59782) with specific contrary predictions. I haven’t exactly run out the clock on any of them yet, but let’s see how I did anyway. First, the predictions:

This is not to challenge you Wot, but you are sort of comparing the peaks and valleys. Those returns are only possible if you bought/sold at those specific times. I own 5 of those positions which I bought before the September swoon during the run up. For example, my initial buy into ZS was at $70, TWLO was $129 and again at $139. Still good returns, but not quite as stellar as indicated.

In some cases I was using trailing short put options, and made considerable returns prior to being assigned shares, so my actual “net” price can be calculated lower. In other cases I had straight out buys. I may be somewhat timid, where others may be more fortunate than I with their timing, so I won’t take away from those with the foresight and skill who caught the top & bottom. I just have to be honest with myself when calculating returns and not inflate numbers based on peaks and valleys. Thankfully, I still have market beating returns - though my portfolio includes many more positions than these.

Not fair, really, because no mutual fund managers can have results that compare to ours because they have to carry 50 or so stocks at least, and have to “diversify,”

Plus, they have to trade in such large amounts, they move the price. That is one advantage of being one of the little guys…at least until you follow this board for a while and become a big fish.

I wish I could recommend Saul’s post #68368 1000 times.

Picking the “best of the best” keeps an old fart like me enthusiastic about investing in common stocks after 40 years.

Thank You, Saul

drillerjim101

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IBD (and the likes) strategy is to say such things about a bunch of stocks and hope that a subset will turn out to be correct. They will then be able to say ’ I predicted that right’. How many rights is not a matter for such seers. This one would gladly rejoice when at least one of their ‘predictions’ turns out to be right, otherwise he will be silent. He chose the wrong cohort.

The counter prediction ‘won’. But that is hardly surprising, is it? Back in Sept 2019, we were descending into the ‘sector rotation’ edict, and most of us knew that was just a buying opportunity.

tj

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This is not to challenge you Wot, but you are sort of comparing the peaks and valleys. Those returns are only possible if you bought/sold at those specific times.

Horse feathers. Nonsense on stilts. You have missed the entire point. As have others who think I am just sort of cherry-picking, that it all came so easily.

As far as picking peaks and valleys – I didn’t pick either. When I posted yesterday, I posted about market prices as of the close of that day. Not some funny new high era from a fortunate time a few months ago. That day. Was it actionable, as opposed to academic? Yes. It was comment on the present time. Was it relevant? Yes, otherwise we can’t check on predictions. So, that end of it I can comfortably refute. That’s a matter of record.

As is who picked the start date. As I noted, I was responding to a poster who used the recent fall in our stocks as proof that our choices were doomed, and I responded to that poster that day. That same very day. The preacher to us sinners picked the day, not me.

And as for it being obvious that everything was fine, it was just sector rotation or whatever – it wasn’t obvious. I bought more. I sold stock to buy options. As for picking a valley, no. Far from it. Our stocks got beaten up the rest of that month. And the next. And the next. The fourth quarter was absolute murder right through Christmas. I lost sleep. But I kept current, and I kept my nerve. I told my friends that Boxing Day was the best opportunity they were going to see for a long time. But at the start of that quarter, it wasn’t obvious that we were about to get strapped to the spanking machine, at least not to me, otherwise I would have gotten out. But I didn’t. I stayed in. I doubled down. I really bet the farm on ZS. And I had my bacon handed to me for doing it the way I did.

And yet, from the day of the original preacher post to today, I am up – much, much more than my predictions post, just as many here are.

How is that possible?

Because my predictions were frozen in a moment in time. No buys. No sells. No updating the portfolio when a DDOG or COUP comes along. Stuck with no more new information, for nine months. Whereas I was not. And, as I mentioned, I used options as well, adding enormous volatility but also higher returns.

Yet even that robotic portfolio, playing only by the rules I publicly stated on the day the preacher preached, and without a single trade, still beat all the doom and gloom, and the market. I did that, live, in real time, for all to see. No one picking stocks live in real time can possibly be accused of cherry picking. You get that, right?

But you know why I picked yesterday? Yes, the experiment was getting stale – no updating, no new trades, after a while it doesn’t resemble my portfolio. Yet the larger reason is that I have sold out of the market, which I very rarely do, because my last prediction, that we will see another leg down, feels like it’s about to come true.

I never market-time – except when I do. You can read my other posts going back to February. I posted when I got out, when I got in, why, how I did it (often badly), and why I got out again. And yet, I still got great returns, just phenomenal, which I am protecting for now with a 100% cash position.

Not a recommendation. Just something I posted a few days ago, and I will follow up on it somewhere down the line. At which time someone will say, “yeah, well, it was pretty obvious the market was overvalued.”

Well, yeah, it is. And I’m acting on it, and I’m saying so. If I’m right, I am picking a peak, but I’m doing so in the present, and I’m doing it in the open. Leaving me to look pretty silly in the future. And I don’t mind that. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong – which happens, as it turns out. But don’t tell me I picked the peaks and valleys. I lived through it, and shared it as I went in real time. Honestly, what more do you want? How could you do better?

Saul does. He posts everything, at least monthly. It must be exhausting, especially when he suffers some baseless criticism. That’s why I wrote my response to that preacher, really – someone has to address such garbage when it comes out and prove them wrong. And I did exactly that.

I hope that sheds some light.

Cheers,
Wot

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