On the morning of Sept. 14, 2019, we had a poster write the following:
I know that this board does not include technical analysis, but IBD has basically issued a sell report on most of the stocks discussed on this board. Most stocks have fallen below their 50 day and 200 day Moving average on significant weekly volume. This normally means at least a few quarters before these stocks return to their glory, and of course this depends on their performance exceeding expectations. A few of these stocks might be large winners, but most will never regain their highs. That’s post 59730. It was at a tough time for our stocks. Remember that.
I responded (59782) with specific contrary predictions. I haven’t exactly run out the clock on any of them yet, but let’s see how I did anyway. First, the predictions:
1) The companies I refer to, hereafter referred to as “the companies,” by ticker symbol, are, in alphabetical order:
I stipulate this list because without doing so, it is impossible to agree or disagree on whether a prediction turns out to be accurate . . . .
2) I predict that within 1 year, most of the companies will be 30% higher than their close as of Friday, September 13, 2019.
3) I predict that within 2 years, most of the companies will have achieved new all-time highs on their way to whatever their eventual fate is, and a minority at least will have done within a year. This is stark contrast to your prediction of “never.”
4) I predict that over the next 10 years, there will be more than one instance of volatility such that most of the companies will be cut by 40% or more – perhaps much more – from their highs . . . .
5) I predict that a minority of the companies will lose our collective interest, and my personal investment, over the next year . . . .
And today, less than 9 months later?
Close Close All Time High Drops of Stock 9/13/19 6/10/20 Gain Since 9/13/19? 40% or more? AYX 112.17 146.1 30% No Yes ESTC 93.75 81.99 -13% No Yes MDB 123.29 208.18 69% Yes Yes OKTA 102.09 181.45 78% Yes No TTD 207.49 368.52 78% Yes Yes TWLO 109.59 203.08 85% Yes Yes ZS 47.48 105.72 123% Yes Yes, Intraday Average Return 64% S&P 500 3007.39 3190.14 6%
Prediction #1: Correct: Most are indeed 30% higher or more, and as a group, they are more than twice that, well ahead of schedule.
Prediction #2: Correct: Most have since achieved a new all-time high, even more ahead of schedule.
Prediction #3: Correct so far: This is a 10-year prediction, yet even after only nine months, most of the stocks have experienced a 40%+ fall. Hey, look, I predicted volatility! Why did I do that? Because it is normal, had happened before, will happen again . . . and yet, when it does, some FUD creeps in, which is why I wrote this post in the first place.
Does this mean tomorrow will be a new record-setter? No, it does not. It means that it is going to be a bumpy ride going forward. Like, heart-in-your-throat volatile. But, if you pay attention, it might just be worth it (see above).
Oh, almost forgot:
Prediction #4: Correct: The board has lost interest in one or more of the above companies. I know I have, and we’ve picked up a few notable names that aren’t on that list that would improve returns had I added them. And yet, what a wonderful group, including some of the ones we don’t talk much about anymore. Still, these predictions were getting dated, so it was time to look in on them.
Considering how I did, I’m going to put out my shingle as the New Oracle of Fooldom. Let me know if there’s anything else that’s utterly obvious you need me to predict, and I’m there. Here’s a freebie: Another leg down in the market is coming! A big one!
No, really, it is. It always is. Don’t worry, I won’t come back and check on that one.