By that metric, IBM, Lenovo, Dell, and Apple are way behind software, too. Even today they’re still changing their hardware to keep up with the software.
Fair enough. But, even Waymo only works on 0.024% of the US by square miles. That’s certainly not “most.”
The difference is that Waymo has never claimed to work on all - or even most - of US streets. Musk has made near continuous claims that self driving will happen, it will be universal, and that the AI will work everywhere.
That’s quite a difference in approach.
As have all the companies providing autonomous capabilities: From Uber to Cruise to Mobileye. Even Waymo parent Google’s CEO predicted a timeline that has long since passed.
Reminder: this is a prediction thread.
Who has a prediction about mobility technology?
Specific, measurable, time-bound.
Earnings calls are approaching, maybe we will see some more entertaining predictions?
(Keeps the conversation going)
Here’s Google CEO making a prediction in 2012 for 2017:
He added quickly that he was reluctant to “overpromise” and said Google has set ambitious targets for its engineers. “You can see them stressing, looking at me answer this question,” he joked, indicating some Google engineers in the audience.
Then he said: “You can count on one hand the number of years until ordinary people can experience this.”
Want more? OK:
Ford – True Self-Driving by 2021
Honda – Self-Driving on the Highway by 2020
Toyota – Self-Driving on the Highway by 2020
Renault-Nissan – 2020 for Autonomous Cars in Urban Conditions, 2025 for Truly Driverless Cars
Volvo – Self-Driving on the Highway by 2021
Hyundai – Highway 2020, Urban Driving 2030
Daimler and BMW- Nearly Fully Autonomous by Early 2020’s
Fiat-Chrysler – CEO expects there to be some self driving on the road by 2021
in 2016 many industry leaders expected autonomous vehicles to be commonplace on highways in the early 2020s
That article is dated 2017.
Any predictions about, you know, the future?
I predict that mobility technology will progress over time as almost all technologies do.
I also predict that interest rates will … fluctuate.
LOL.
Lame.
Is that the best you got?
Specific, measurable, time-bound.
Welcome to the prediction thread (though you did wait some on this one).
Predictions 1, 4, and 5 (below) have come to pass easily in 2025.
It wasn’t close (reality is not in the same universe as Predictions 4 and 5 not coming to pass).
Tesla’s FSD improves in 2025, but it is not autonomous (unsupervised) and definitely not deployed to the scale proposed (proposed just in the last 3-6 months) by the lead architect.
Tesla didn’t even meet the low bar of beating Prediction 1.
It’s unserious to even consider Predictions 4 and 5, but the lead architect offered the alternatives to these in July on the Q2 earnings call.
It should be said that Tesla stock went up for much of 2025 despite the failed AI claims. I gave up long puts on the stock in Q3, which did not work.
This is the correct advice:
Prediction 1
Prediction 4
Prediction 5
Revisiting history.
Turns out 1,000 was outlandish.
They didn’t even get 1,000 supervised.
Oh well.