Proximity Problem explains affordability crisis

{{ The lower middle class doesn’t have a discipline problem. They have a proximity problem: close enough to wealth to absorb its costs, never close enough to access its compounding returns.

Consider the experience of dental hygienists in suburban metros who’ve watched their neighborhoods transform around them. Apartments that were workforce housing a decade ago now sit amid luxury developments. Rents climb while nearby grocery stores shift to high-end organic brands because the neighborhood demographics changed. Pediatricians in medical complexes increasingly cater to concierge patients; wait times triple while co-pays creep up. These workers didn’t move to wealthier neighborhoods. The wealthier neighborhood moved to them.

This pattern reflects what economists sometimes call “amenity capture,” where rising affluence in a geographic area drives up the cost of baseline goods and services, not because those goods improved, but because the local market now prices to a wealthier customer base. And workers can’t just opt out. }}

intercst

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Gentrification has been a problem for decades in many places. It’s not new. In earlier waves of gentrification it was the poor who were pushed out. Now it’s the workers.

Wendy

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Back when I was planning my retirement income, I realized that I would be competing for stuff with others… And that to succeed I needed MORE income than the median in my area.

Living on a fixed income, that is eroding due to inflation, can cause one’s buying power to fall below that of the “competition”.

This was a driving force in my choice to delay SS until age 70.

:thinking:
ralph

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The median income is that income level with the most “spenders”.

I posit that this median point has a direct effect on inflation.
If the median drops, then fewer people will have disposable income, n prices will stagnate (lower inflation).
As median rises, more people have more disposable income, and prices rise as more people COMPETE for “stuff”.

This YT, at about 13 minutes mark, touches on AI and UBI (Universal Basic Income) and Diamandis’ thought that it’ll be UHI (Universal High Income).

Economic Transition: The traditional social contract of schooling leading to a job is fading. Diamandis predicts a shift toward Universal High Income (UHI), where AI and robotics drastically reduce the cost of goods and services like healthcare and transportation (13:15, 18:08).

Whatever it’s called, if it comes to pass, I posit that that “income” will create the median.
And cost of living will “adjust” to soak up the “disposable” $.

Per my retirement planning to have more income than the median…
How is a UBI, or especially a UHI, likely to affect my income vs the median?

That’s personal.

How about all those folks on SSDI, or Medicaid, or other “special situation income” paid by the government gonna be handled?

:united_states: 250 years!
ralph

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The tourist town where I live is suffering from this. Especially in housing. Lots of low wage jobs combined with a very expensive housing market. Fortunately the town is taking steps to provide reasonably priced housing for the work force.

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I doubt it all.

The adjustment from hunter gatherers to early agriculture took millenia with some bumps, then the transition from to urban managed mass agriculture took centuries and its KEY technologies were NOT fertilization and irrigation and etc., but rather Religious and Political so as to manage all the crazy human stuff that came with the urban domination and kingship of Sumer etc.

Even if all of the good AI dreams come true, and none of the bad ones, the political/religious/social problems are being treated as something that will “just happen naturally”. Idiots.

Now you see what I mean when I claim to be a true conservative. I do NOT buy the cheap dreams. There will be BLOOD.

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AI and robots will drastically reduce those costs, but don’t expect you’ll get to share in the windfall. The people who own the robots and software will make all the money. History tells us they won’t share it with you.

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Diamandis also says this in the YT.
I, too, believe the transition will be fraught.

@McLovin1981
I didn’t say that. It’s in italics in my post, indicating it’s from the YT.
And, I agree with your comment. The ones who own the AI , n bots will be the winners.

:smiley:
ralph

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This economy is being driven not by the median, but by the average. Median income is just about where it was in 2019, six years ago. The median is just now getting back to pre-covid levels of income:

By contrast, take a look at the average - which is dominated by the top 1%.

It has not been the rise in median income (again, it is just now getting back to 2019 levels), it has been the rise in the top, in particular SINCE covid that has been the driver. Average income is up 24% since 2019. Those at the median have little to no disposable income.

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High inflation, particularly in 2021 and 2022, beat the stuffing out of most household budgets.

DB2

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Not for those in the top 10% and higher. That is the point. REAL median is flat over six years while REAL mean actually accelerated over the last six years. So, yes, “most” is accurate but it doesn’t tell the whole story, or even the real story.

Top 1% of wealth in 2019 was 31T. Most recent measurement reflects 55T.

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We both know about the K-shaped economy, but I’m not sure what your point is.

DB2

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I already made it in my first reply - that the economy is not being driven by changes in real median household income. Do you have something to offer that either supports or contradicts that statement?

Your reply to me about inflation is largely irrelevant since what I posted accounted for inflation (e.g. REAL changes vs nominal). And again, REAL averages grew 24% while median did nothing.

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But the huge two-year inflation isn’t irrelevant. Looking at the FRED chart for real income there was an obvious covid hit during 2020. However, instead of recovering over the next two years (2021 and 2022) real income declined, only beginning growth again in 2023.

So, what happened in '21 and '22 that delayed the recovery back to pre-covid levels? The answer: the highest inflation levels in 40 years.

Is there something else that happened over those two years that was of comparable magnitude?

DB2

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Yes, and it had virtually ZERO impact on the average. You get that, right? The average did not drop like the median did. Thus, inflation was virtually irrelevant to the average. In fact, the average grew at an even quicker pace post-covid.

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Yes, we both know the difference between the mean and median, and the K-shaped economy.

Moving on, my question was why was the income recovery of the lower branch of the K delayed by two years?

My guess, as stated upthread, is that the highest inflation in 40 years “beat the stuffing” out of their budgets. Your thoughts on the ‘why’? Was it something the Biden administration did or didn’t do? Was it the large numbers of illegal immigrants? What changed in 2023 and 2024?

DB2

If we’re comparing real to real, there’s not much difference in the rebound timeframe.


What is different - The median group recovered 5.3% of their income from the 2022 bottom, while the mean group recovered 7.1%.

It’s been well documented that the pandemic contributed to the top 1% hoovering up wealth from everybody else.

Real income bottomed out in 2022…for both the median and the mean groups. I also think it’s worth mentioning that COVID economic impacts were very real through the middle of 2022. Did inflation contribute to real income going down? Probably. Was it the sole driver? Definitely not.

The pandemic was essentially over. US employment returned to pre-pandemic levels in June 2022 and the IRA was passed in August 2022. More people working + inflation goes down = higher real income.

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