Another late review after another tough month in February. It was a big month for earnings and decisions, and I made quite a few more transactions than is typical which I’ll cover below. With such violent moves every day or two, the market presented a number of buying opportunities which I am still hopeful will pay off in the long run. There’s a lot of irrational narratives that took hold in the markets which the numbers will disprove eventually, and when the rotation comes back it should hit really hard. This seems to have played out the last few years: huge news-based fears rocking the market until cooler heads prevail, the rotation comes back into oversold growth stocks, a rush comes in that creates a surge in price, and then eventually people trim their gains towards the end of the year. The rollercoaster goes on.
My only medium-term market fear is the fallout from the war in Iran with regards to inflation and interest rates. That being said, earnings were a little shakier than the last time around, in my opinion. Lots to like, but some nerves and cracks showed up.
As I have the last few quarters, I used this earnings season to re-shuffle the deck, and tried to put some of my lessons from last year to use. More on my specific companies below. Since I’m so late, some of this might get into March timeframe…whoops.
My year looks like this:
JAN: -7.02%
FEB: -14.81%
YTD: -21.4%
My portfolio looks like this:
APP: -9% Last Month, A Earnings
Another excellent quarter for Applovin, and I feel comfortable having them at 20%, knowing that they are nearly 40% off their ATH despite still growing revenue at 66% YoY and Net Income at 84% YoY. eCommerce is just getting started and the Stagwell deal I mentioned in my last post is a big vote of confidence in my book, especially in the face of a ton of bogus short reports. Their revenue guide, at +6% at the midline, is their 2nd highest in their last 8 quarters. Not sure what’s not to like. I added to my position at around $372
ALAB: -21% Last Month, B Earnings
Astera is one of the many companies that I don’t really have a great grasp of, from a technology standpoint, versus just following the numbers and the larger tailwind. It gets traded with the broader AI narrative which makes little to no sense to me. The AI build-out is happening (and accelerating) regardless of whether big tech will ever see a return on their investment, or whether AI will eat every industry on earth. So, ALAB should stand to benefit in the medium term at the least.
Yet, revenue growth rate, albeit still at 92% YoY, has been declining while the build-out is accelerating. Net Income growth is also slowing. There is a strong pipeline of new products ramping, but at a sky-high valuation, it feels like the market is wanting them to reverse those trends. The guide was consistent as ever, which kept them as a top position, and I even added to them twice after their big earnings drop
NBIS: +6%, A Earnings
There has been a ton of chatter about NBIS on the board so there’s not a lot for me to add but I like their positioning in this trend. It makes total sense to me that they are using big tech build-outs to fund their bigger aspirations to provide the AI tech for next-generation AI companies. They’re invested in some interesting companies as well. The numbers have been great both in terms of revenue and ARR. Out of all the companies in my portfolio, this feels like one that in many years, I could be very happy I got in on “the ground floor” (sorta). Still holding onto some hope in this crazy world…I added to them pretty heavily in my portfolio reshuffle.
ETON: +13%, B Earnings
ETON has thankfully been left out of the insanity to a large degree. They just reported yesterday but I might as well mention it here. Revenue was slightly down this quarter but they were up on the report, likely due to their Non-GAAP Net Income rising 260% and a solid FY guide of $110M revenue. YoY revenue growth declined to 83% from 118%
They also received approval for a new drug, DESMODA, which has peak potential sales of $30-50M annually, and are making progress across multiple drugs in expanding their potential use.
I was uncertain going into earnings, so I did not touch ETON during February nor March, and I’m comfortable leaving them as a position that grows naturally vs. adding significantly. That is mostly due to their growth rate currently declining. If they show a surprise next quarter, I may add.
IREN: -25%, B Earnings
There has been a lot of discussion on IREN, and a lot around it being a story stock. In my review of last year, I noted that I would start focusing on companies with momentum as a tie-breaker. This could probably be reframed as a compelling story that the market is noticing, hence momentum. But it’s important that the first requirement is that there are positive numbers. Tesla is a pure story stock - the numbers are quite poor, there is just a vague promise of a future. I would say that IREN does have some positive numbers, despite the chaos-induced hit to bitcoin. AI Revenue grew 137%, albeit from a tiny base. I imagine that will continue, and the market might begin to notice when it’s at bigger numbers than $17M. That’s the positive here and why I’m giving it a B rating. Otherwise, I’m a little bit disappointed there hasn’t been more news, despite the continued progress in securing power.
For my portfolio, NBIS is the clear winner over IREN. Since February, I have trimmed IREN by about half, but I will hold from here.
NVDA: -6%, A Earnings
Every earnings I am shocked about what Nvidia is able to put up, and while the market can’t fathom sending them any higher, they could be a pretty cheap stock. Their EV/EBITDA is right in line with Google’s, but I don’t see Google growing at 70%. Based on Jensen’s projection of $1T in sales through 2027…they aren’t slowing down at all. I’m not adding to Nvidia, but I’m sure as hell not selling.
MU: Flat, A Earnings
I realize they had a huge run-up to earnings, but I was shocked to see a poor reaction to what was a great report. Revenue growth hit 196% YoY. Net Income up 163%. GM grew from 56% to 74% QoQ. All BUs are accelerating. The Morning Brew reported that they are only able to serve about 60% of demand, so of course their CapEx is going to grow to meet it…and the market sells them off? Crazy.
Oh and by the way, their P/E is only 4.7. EV/EBITDA is 3.4. EV/Sales is 3.0. I didn’t add after their report, but as I’m writing this…I’m going to find a way to add now.
ASTS: -29%, A Earnings
AST Spacemobile sold off, likely due to a big run-up over the last 6 months as well as a private offering. But all signs are pointing upward, despite the Starlink fear that has been expressed on the board. For me…I don’t believe a word that Elon Musk says, so I’ll believe that particular worry when I see it. What else happened?
Oh, they were awarded another prime contract by the US Space Agency, which would seem to be a pretty decent vote of confidence. They announced a partnership with Canada’s big 3 telecom companies. And they had strong earnings. Revenue tripled QoQ. They secured $1.2B in contracted revenue, and are still projecting 45-60 satellites to be launched by the end of the year. They don’t offer a guide, unfortunately and their margins ticked down from 60% to 45%. Something to keep an eye on.
I’m liking the numbers and momentum here. I added in February and am hopeful this can be a big winner.
PGY: -42%, D Earnings
By far the biggest disappointment of the earnings season and a big contributor to my terrible month. I did a separate write up on their earnings, but in short: after a very bullish Q3 Earnings, they intentionally throttled their own volume in Q4 due to the continued geo-political issues and fallout that is rippling through markets and economies. If I weren’t an investor, I’d say it’s very wise…but it also caused a big miss and reduced expectations moving forward, for at least the next…3 years by my count. (not trying to be political, just calling it the way it is). I cut them down by a ton, moving them from nearly 14% to only 4%. There’s a lot to be excited about but with looming inflation and perhaps even rate HIKES, they are in a precarious position going into next earnings. They are still stupid cheap, but another miss and I will sell out.
UPST: -31%, C Earnings
Upstart is making some huge moves in 2026. Their report was just ok, with a beat in revenue but a slip in revenue growth from 71% to 35%. The guide was pretty good at 35% YoY revenue growth. I did sell a bit after earnings, and they are teetering on the edge for me. But the news after that was pretty interesting.
First they published a monthly loan origination tracker at www.upstart.com/volume. Now we can get greater visibility into the trends.
Next they announced the promotion of Co-Founder and CTO Paul Gu would take over the reins as CEO on May 1st.
Then they announced a new product, a revolving line of credit called “Cash Line”.
Then they did a share repurchase.
Then they announced two new auto agreements for $530M in assets.
Then, they announced they were applying for a bank charter!
I’m not sure what this all adds up to, but I’m very interested in the next earnings call.
CLS: -12% Since Purchase, A Earnings
I am definitely getting in late here, but the acceleration in revenue finally got my attention. Revenue growth moved from 21% to 28% to 45% in the latest quarter. Net Income remained flat however due to reduced margins. The guide at the midpoint represents continued growth acceleration, up to 50%. The annual guide looked great as well. Thanks to @jonathan1 for continuing to talk about them, seems very promising.
ELVA: -30%, C Earnings
In retrospect, I probably started Electrovaya at too high of a position. Their earnings were not great, with revenue declining a whopping 25% QoQ, but I understand there is seasonality there. The FY guide however was for only 30% growth, from a pretty low base. Their margins aren’t super high. I trimmed them after earnings, and while writing this recap I just sold out of them to move the funds to Micron.
HOOD: -23%, B Earnings
I only recently got into Robinhood despite being a big fan and user of the platform. Revenue growth dropped off like a cliff , from 100% to 26%, due to crypto getting crushed along with general poor market sentiment. But ARPU was up 16%, Gold Subscribers were up 58%. But it seems they do not provide a guide, so it’s hard to say what the prospects are in the near term. They should get a boost from their new prediction markets in Q1, especially with Super Bowl, College Football, College Basketball, and the Olympics happening. Not to mention, sadly, the war in Iran. In the long-term, I see them as the financial platform of the future, but we’ll see if that means sustained high growth.
SEI: -19%, B Earnings
Solaris had a pretty strong report, with 86% revenue growth. That’s a reduction from 122% last quarter, but they raised their adjusted EBITDA. They also announced a contract with a hyperscaler to provide 500MW of power over the next 10 years. That revenue won’t start to come until 2027, but still a great sign. I didn’t touch them after earnings, as I’m waiting to hear more, but they recently announced two transitions to add 900 MW of power, and new financing to help support growth. For now, I’m keeping them as a small position.
RIGL: SOLD
They reported flat revenue, and guided for hardly any growth this year. And for that reason, I’m out.
If you made it this far, bless you. And best of luck to all!