Chris, I have to disagree with your reasoning–mildly, as I’m not a techie by any stretch. But I own NTNX and PVTL in the opposite relative sizes (NTNX, 7.3%, PVTL 9.8%. I would be happy to add to my PVTL shares on any dip.
My reasoning is from a very long distance view, so consider that view to come from a non-techie, complete outsider just thinking aloud.
So many are/were worried about PVTL’s low-count customer base, even though some of the customers appear to be huge. The company just IPO’d, they’re wisely concentrating on doing whatever they do right the first time. Sometimes this causes an opportunity cost (missing out on potential new customers while hand-feeding their current ‘first-wave’ customers.)
But rather than opportunity costs rising, I see PVTL’s reputation blasting off on a path to fame and fortune. It’s not impossible that that ‘lost opportunity’ has become a catalyst for many potential customers to feel left out of the launch party and wanting a piece of PVTL’s expertise, while being impressed with their concentration on solutions for current customers and their ultimate satisfaction.
If NTNX & PVTL’s business paths are really intertwined in a parallel path as tightly as you suggest, then I believe PVTL has a heck of a lot of potential customers who haven’t even been contacted yet. Reading between the lines (I have no secret source for further data) I am comfortable assuming that the numerous glaring reviews for PVTL’s services are a) accurate, b) free of hyperbolic glad-handing and most importantly, c) understated.
As far as Dell is concerned, yes, they are a force to be reckoned with within their circle of competence. However, unless their team is full of millennials and millennial thinking–a possibility, I realize–then they would have to become very familiar with concepts like open source, public benefit, profit as secondary, brand neutral, and other philosophies, and very quickly, in order to have any chance of catching up with PVTL in the next 5 years.
Maybe I’m price-anchoring too. I bought NTNX in March and it’s finally out of the red. I bought PVTL at the tail end of May and it has already returned gains worth world cruises for the entire Family Raptor.
If I’m later proved wrong, I still won’t be ‘wrong’ and I’ll be content; after all, I own both. But if I could only own one of the two, right now I’d go with PVTL.
As an old fart, I’ve had to be convinced of the viability of the philosophies surrounding all the non-specific branding, open-source, vendor neutral, etc., business plans. But Google showed me the light and the last I saw, they were still doing okay, as are many followers with similar philosophies. Since I don’t follow Dell and VMWare, I’m not sure that they understand the power inherent in these traits. I also don’t think the traits can be instituted into a corporation overnight.
We could call Cisco and ask them if it’s possible …