While many cyber security professionals were really not quaking in their boots over Mythos putting them out of work, they were frightened by what Google quietly revealed: quantum computing that can crack most encryption is going to arrive much faster than we had all planned. While many people may think that encryption is something Signal fanatics, intelligence agencies and armed forces use, actually we all use it. Digital certificates are embedded in most of the components of the Internet and without them the networks would not work. Digital certificates use encryption, as do browsers, e-mails, remote sensors, and many data bases, all without the user noticing. Without reliable encryption the Internet breaks because almost any network could be compromised.
We have known for decades that whenever a giant quantum computer starts reliably working, it would be able in seconds to do the decryption work that today would take supercomputers years.What Google just told the world was that a much smaller quantum computer, one that could be created in the next two or three years at the current rate of progress, could do that decryption. It will take most corporations and governments longer than that to find and replace all of the encryption that they and their vendors utilize. The result is likely to be a field day for hackers, with cyberspace becoming a truly risky and hostile environment for any transaction.
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If there is good news in all of this, it is that some government agencies and large financial institutions have already begun that replacement process. Most government agencies and corporations have not only not begun, they have not scoped the project, planned for it, or budgeted against the requirement. For some of them, it may already be too late. They should have started last year. As one former senior NSA officer familiar with these recent developments told me, “it would be appropriate right now for them to be frantic.”
Hawkwin
Who wonders if Bitcoin can replace their encryption.
Probably not. Several years ago, NOVA did a program on quantum computing. The short version is that a quantum computer can break any encryption that wasn’t created by a quantum computer. Everything from banking to email will be broken easily, unless a quantum computer has secured it.
I still remember a quote from one of the researchers: “it’s guaranteed by the laws of physics”.
I hadn’t thought about Bitcoin (or, more precisely, blockchain), but I would presume a quantum computer could compromise that, too. In which case, I would guess all cryptocurrency would become worthless.
Bitcoin anonymity is a myth. Encryption of Bitcoin wallets is real, and wallets for which public keys were published are very vulnerable. Two separate things. Contrary to what some folks think, crypto has always been able to be tracked. But the encryption that protects the wallets from being accessed has generally been safe, and that’s what QC jeopardizes.
My understanding is that there exist quantum-safe (or quantum-resistant) crypto wallets that are protected from QC, but that only protects people if they move their crypto out of the compromised “old” wallets into the new one.
For holders of Bitcoin, the QC risk isn’t just to their own wallet security, which they can protect against. About 25-30% of Bitcoin is in “old” wallets, including the Satoshi holdings and other long-dormant wallets that may reflect lost or dead owners. Once QC can break the encryption it is (in theory) open season on plundering those, which might play havoc with Bitcoin valuations.
The leading candidate strongly denies it. There are serious personal safety risks, lots of recent stories about large wallet holders getting tortured / robbed of their crypto. Even QC can’t protect against getting worked on with pliers and a ball peen hammer.
But for Satoshi, $70 billion worth of crypto is more than enough to be able to buy a private island and a full retinue of 24-hour bodyguards. Probably safer that way than walking around being a suspect of having $70 billion but living like an ordinary normie. I agree with Matt Levine that the most likely explanation is that Satoshi is either: i) dead; or ii) forgot the password and therefore has a lot of incentive not to be discovered and have to live life publicly as the guy who could have been worth $70 billion if he hadn’t lost his password. Even though that’s the most crypto thing imaginable.
