Rally Research Expedition: Part One

This is Part One of a Two Part Rally Research Expedition.

Note: I am an amateur investor who is decidedly talented at garbling data. Take that time the IRS got after my butt and and my Lawyer/Accountant Earl came to my rescue by letting those really serious collection guys know that I was a moron and had simply transposed some numbers. Whew - that was close!

So…I wanted to know, given the rally over the last few days, which of the portfolio roster players had performed the best. Here is what I came up with:

  1. BILL has rallied 45.2% from its low.

  2. CRWD has rallied 42.3%

  3. S has rallied 42.1%

  4. MDB rallied 42.0%

  5. SNOW has rallied 37.4%

  6. ZS has rallied 36.5%

  7. NET has rallied 33% off its low

  8. DDOG rallied 32.5%

Overall…I thought to myself, that those numbers were pretty good. And I felt bad for several really nice people that had emailed me in recent weeks saying that they had just had enough and were getting out. I hope they actually held on.

The next very next thing I wondered about was how our hand-picked, super duper, high growth companies fared in the rally compared to other former super duper, high growth companies as well as maybe compared to the un-super duper, high (but maybe less high) growth companies. So I ran the numbers and here is what I came up with.

  1. GTLB - Has rallied 76.8% off its low.


Here is the Press Release from their latest ER:


  1. RBLX - Has rallied 68.2% off its low.

Metaverse guys.

They really screwed the pooch on their last ER:


  1. MQ - Has rallied 67.1%


Latest ER Press Release:


  1. UPST - Has rallied 61%


They got creamed after their last ER when some bonehead decided they needed to keep a fund a bunch of loans and keep them on their books.


  1. U - Has rallied 60.9%


They got pounded by weak guidance and slowing growth.

Latest ER Press Release:


  1. PATH - Has rallied by 60.5%


These guys make little software robots and then they use some sort of software syringe to inject them in company computers. Lots of fun. If you ever say a movie called Gremlins they are just like that only different and you can’t get them wet.

Here is the Press Release from their most recent ER:


  1. DOCN - Has rallied from the bottom by 58.9%


DOCN has a lot of Mo just now. One of the smarter guys I follow has 12% or so of his portfolio in them. Puzzling because their growth is only in the mid thirties. Just remember, sometimes its not the Xs and Os - its the Johnnys and Joes.

Here is the Press Release from their latest ER:


  1. PLTR - Rallied by 58.2% off its lows.


This one I can’t understand: No-one likes them very much. The rally might be from the big-rig fund guys. I dunno. They got bent over after their last ER because they had puny, itty biddy guidance.

Here is the PR from there latest ER:


  1. NCNO - Rallied off lows by 55.4%


This can’t be right. Not one of the smart kids that know of has NCNO on their roster. Very Puzzling. Was sort of in the club once I think - well maybe the fringes. They did good on their most recent ER along with providing good guidance. Good guidance is just like having good bone structure:


Anyway - here is the Press Release from their last ER:


  1. ZM - Yep…that Zoom. Rallied off the floor by 55.2%

Waste of time putting ZM’s website here - every human being in the entire world knows what they do.

The good news here is that on its latest ER ZM the company Beat estimates and raised Guidance. A company can’t hardly go wrong raising guidance.

Here is the Press Release from that ER:


Brief Time Out.

Now…if you’r paying attention, so far we already have 10 companies that have beaten our chosen ones in the rally sweepstakes. So…if our companies are all so great - why would this be - I’m wondering. This will not stand:


Anyway - on we go.

  1. COIN - Has rallied by 53.6%


I used to think that COIN was a sort of Pig in a Poke. I suppose I still do.

Since their last report they seem to be coming apart at the seams. Sort of like a really fat guy and his Sunday go to Church black suit. Or something like that.

Here is the Press Release from their last ER:


  1. CFLT - Has rallied by 53.4%


Confluent has a lot going for it but evidently accelerating revenue growth is not one of them.

Here is the Press Release from their latest ER:


  1. ESTC - (Yes that ESTC) rallied by 52.8%


ESTC was debated and then kicked to the curb in favor of NET.

Here is the Press Release from their latest ER:


  1. DT - has rallied 49.8%


DT - like practically every other company we know - does something or other in the Cloud. The problem is that Revenue Growth has slowed to below 30% or so. And yet they still out-rallied our stocks rally. Go Figure!

Here is the Press Release from their latest ER:


  1. SE - Has rallied off its bottom by 48.8%

This doesn’t surprise me because SE has a lot going for it as the Gaming/FinTech/e-Commerce giant in Asia. Recently it got kicked out of India…Big Deal! I can’t remember how many clubs I might have been thrown out of. Of course that was in my younger days - I am much gentler now and almost house broken.

Here is the Press Release from their latest ER:


  1. GLBE - Has rallied by 47.8%

GLBE helps companies do cross-border transactions opening up the entire world to just about anyone that wants to sell stuff in other nations. They also have a deal with SHOP that should pop any QTR now. Interestingly enough the share price remains below the IPO price.

Here is their Press Release from their latest ER:


  1. BRZE - Climbed out of its hole by 47.2%


Bert likes these guys a lot.

BRZE reported Revenue Growth of just over 61% in their most recently reported QTR and capped it off with DBNR of 127% - AND they generated Free Cash Flow! How bout that?


Here is the Press Release from their latest ER:


  1. APP - Has Rallied by 46.5%


These guys big fat IPO but on their latest ER they missed on Revenue by 23% - AND still has out-rallied our super duper companies.

Here is the Press Release on that ER:


Another Brief Time Out.

Now this spot - number 19, is where my first portfolio stalwart would be listed. As a reminder thats BILl coming in at 45.2%. But - I’m gonna pause here and finish the list in Part 2. I have another 32 companies that everyone is familiar with to list. We leave three questions on the table:

  1. Why did so many of what we might consider lessor companies out rally our guys?

  2. Are the companies that beat our guys in the list above worth roster consideration?

  3. Does any of this mean anything at all?

When I finish Part 2 I will have a semi-firm, pretty marginal, definitive answer to those questions that may be too shocking for some people - especially sensitive types. We’ll see.

All the Best,