Ranking the Scout Team Candidates

As I mentioned in my April Starting Gate I want to begin to flesh out the portfolio roster and have already added SE and MQ. My Intention with these two is that MQ will remain a Scout Team player while SE will trend to the Bench - all dependent upon the market performance in general.

Going further I wanted to take a look at additional candidates for remaining Scout Team positions mentioning in the ASG that I would be adding both U and GLBE as soon as this coming week. After thinking about it - I took some time today to review a number of possibilities and started with a full 22 companies. The initial cut took out just more than half leaving the following:

1)TASK - digital services for customer outcomes.

https://www.taskus.com/

Latest Earnings Report Headline:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3807318-taskus-jumps-9-after-r…

  1. CFLT - Managed Cloud Native Data Streaming Platform.

https://www.confluent.io/

Latest Earnings Report Headline:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3798895-confluent-non-gaap-eps…

  1. GTLB - Software DevOps Platform

https://about.gitlab.com/

Latest Earnings Report Headline:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3813677-gitlab-jumps-8-after-q…

  1. INMD - Minimally invasive aesthetic medical products.

https://www.inmodemd.com/

Latest Earnings Report Headline:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3798561-inmode-exceeds-100m-re…

  1. AMPL - Offers Digital System to Analyze Customer Behavior

https://amplitude.com/

Latest Earnings Report Headline:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3801558-amplitude-stock-slippe…

  1. DOCN - Cloud Computing Platform Tools for Developers

https://www.digitalocean.com/

Latest Earnings Report Headline:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3805277-cloud-computing-platfo…

  1. FVRR - Online Marketplace for Buyers and Sellers of Professional Services

https://www.fiverr.com/

Latest Earnings Report Headline:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3801214-fiverr-international-n…

  1. AFRM - Key Player in the PNPL Movement

https://www.affirm.com/

Latest Earnings Report Headline:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3799173-affirm-stock-drops-8-m…

  1. DOCS - Operates a Cloud-Based Digital Platform for Medical Professionals

https://www.doximity.com/

Latest Earnings Report Headline:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3797543-doximity-sets-fiscal-2…

The entire point of Scout Team is to invest in lower Market Cap companies with high potential displaying exceptional Revenue Growth: Think of them as players from baseball Triple A farm teams that have been promoted to the Majors. They have been given a chance but now have to perform to high level expectations. Or something very similar to that.

Note 1) All data for this competition came from a variety of sources including: IBD, Fidelity Research; Seeking Alpha, Yahoo and some I just Thunk up (Intangibles).

Note 2) I am a notorious garbler of data so if anything catches your eye, piques your interest, or looks totally FUBAR’d you might better go check it out yourself.

Note 3) This analysis, such as it is, is scored like a track meet. It is not intended to present a definitive result; rather, a jumping off point for additional research.

Note 4) I am an unorthodox amateur investor with an investing style rife with a relatively vast range of potential dead end canyons and questionable ideas stolen from a variety of investing resources and services and nothing contained herein should be construed as an investment recommendation. The very idea is laughable: HaHaHa.

A) Rankings by Market Cap with Lower Being Better:

  1. AMPL with a Market Cap of $2.05B

  2. FVRR: $2.83B

  3. INMD: $3.11B

  4. TASK: $3.84B

  5. DOCN: $6.41B

  6. GTLB: $8.03B

  7. DOCS: $10.10B

  8. CFLT: $11.35B

  9. AFRM: $13.25B

B) Revenue Growth Latest Report:

  1. AFRM with 77%

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18667554?source=content_type%3Ar…

  1. CFLT: 71%

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18667651?source=content_type%3Ar…

  1. GTLB: 69.6%

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18708918?source=content_type%3Ar…

  1. DOCS: 67%

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18663375?source=content_type%3Ar…

  1. AMPL: 64.6%

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4487710-amplitudes-ampl-ceo…

  1. TASK: 63.4%

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18689448?source=content_type%3Ar…

  1. INMD: 47%

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18666189?source=content_type%3Ar…

  1. FVRR: 43%

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18675496?source=content_type%3Ar…

  1. DOCN: 37%

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18684452?source=content_type%3Ar…

Total Points After Two Events:

  1. AMPl with 14

  2. GTLB 11

  3. FVRR 10

INMD 10

TASK 10

CFLT 10

AFRM 10

DOCS 9

DOCN 6

C) EPS Results Latest Report:

1)DOCS Beat by 17 Cents

  1. FVRR Beat by 11 Cents

  2. GTLB Beat by 9 Cents

  3. INMD Beat by 7 Cents

  4. AMPL Beat by 3 Cents

  5. CFLT Beat by 2 Cents

  6. DOCN Beat by 1 Cent

TASK Beat by 1 Cent

  1. AFRM Miss

D) Percentage of Revenue Beat Latest Report:

  1. DOCS Beat Revenue by 13.44%

  2. GTLB Beat by 10.68%

  3. CFLT Beat by 9.22%

  4. AFRM Beat by 8.38%

  5. INMD Beat by 6.76%

  6. AMPL Beat by 5.26%

  7. TASK Beat by 4.98%

  8. FVRR Beat by 3.81%

  9. DOCN Beat by less than 1%

Total Points After 4 Events:

  1. DOCS with 27

  2. GTLB 26

  3. AMPL 23

  4. INMD 21

CFLT 21

  1. FVRR 20

  2. AFRM 16

  3. TASK 15

  4. DOCN 10

E) Percentage Below It’s High (Lower is Better)

  1. DOCS at -51%

  2. TASK -54%

  3. DOCN -55%

  4. CFLT -56%

  5. GTLB -60%

  6. INMD -62%

  7. FVRR -71%

  8. AFRM -74%

  9. AMPL -79%

F) Efficiency Score - YTD Price Action Comparison

  1. DOCS with +2.39%

  2. DOCN -20.88%

  3. TASK -27.51%

  4. FVRR -29.73

  5. GTLB -32.13

  6. CFLT -40.52

  7. INMD -43.03

  8. AFRM -51.05

  9. AMPL -64.57

Total Points After 6 Events:

  1. DOCS with 45

  2. GTLB 36

  3. CFLT 31

  4. TASK 30

  5. FVRR 29

  6. INMD 28

  7. DOCN 25

AMPL 25

  1. AFRM 20

G) Momentum Last 30 Days:

  1. TASK with +21.38

  2. AFRM +21.29

  3. GTLB 17.04

  4. DOCN +9.40

  5. CFLT +8.87

  6. FVRR +6.23

  7. DOCS -5.38

  8. AMPL -6.16

  9. INMD -6.49

H) Relative Strength

  1. DOCS with 55

  2. DOCN 44

  3. TASK 39

  4. CFLT 18

  5. INMD 14

  6. GTLB 10

  7. AFRM 8

  8. FVRR 6

  9. AMPL 2

Total Points After 8 Events:

  1. DOCS with 57

  2. GTLB 47

  3. TASK 46

  4. CFLT 42

  5. DOCN 37

  6. FVRR 35

  7. INMD 34

  8. AFRM 31

  9. AMPL 28

G) IBD Accumulation Rating:

  1. GTLB with B+

  2. DOCN B

AFRM B

DOCS B

  1. FVRR B-

  2. AMPL C+

  3. TASK C

CFLT C

  1. INMD D+

Final Scores:

  1. DOCS with 65

  2. GTLB 56

  3. TASK 51

  4. CFLT 47

  5. DOCN 45

  6. FVRR 42

  7. AFRM 38

  8. INMD 38

  9. AMPL 34


As I mentioned at the beginning of this - this was the second step in narrowing the candidates for Scout Team positions on the roster. After running through this exercise I suspect my own Watch List has been narrowed to the Top 5. We’ll see what happens in the markets tomorrow and if I can get this all bucked out next week.

What I have decided is to go ahead with the GLBE addition to the roster if the markets cooperate but hold off on U for now. I like U but its more of a Bench player than a Scout Team level position and the competition for the Bench is stronger across the board.

All the Best,

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