Interesting tidbit. This should put downward pressure on prices.
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Nothing drops prices like mass foreclosures. That’s when I bought my current home in 2012.
intercst
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This type of information is highly visible. It’s not a government statistic. It would, I think, raise quite the red flag long long before it hits the 44% point. Would not house prices be trending down all that time, more or less in concert with the over supply +/- a slight lag for the word to get on the street? Why have we been, (and still are) hearing about housing affordability and nobody can afford a house, an entire generation (“Z”’s I guess it is) can’t even think about buying a house in their lifetime and other hand wringing gloomage and doomage?
Which shall we believe? Houses are too expensive and out of reach for no reason I have heard put forth but they just keep saying it? Or there’s a nearly 50% surplus
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That “slight lag” can be years, depending on the situation. One issue is the locked in mortgage rates that millions of people have; they want to upgrade (or downsize) but don’t want to go from a 3% mortgage to a 6% mortgage, and who can blame them.
Everybody wants to “unlock the value” in their newly appreciated house, but nobody wants to take the hit of lowering their price and increasing their costs to do it. The only people moving are those being transfered where the corporation will eat some of it. That doesn’t mean there’s no movement, we’ve had a few houses in the neighborhood go on the market (and sell quickly) over the past 6-12 months, but all except one were people moving into retirement homes, so they had to move. Well, not “had to” but you know what I mean.
It’s playing out slowly, far more slowly that the crtash that happened after 2008, but that was “an event” of magnitude, this is just a slow crawl to the finish line. I’m sure prices will come down, but they will drift, not roll downwards. Give it time.
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That “slight lag” can be years, depending on the situation. One issue is the locked in mortgage rates that millions of people have; they want to upgrade (or downsize) but don’t want to go from a 3% mortgage to a 6% mortgage
To be clear, I am nor arguing here. I understand the economics of what your saying but it’s more an academic concept and not what that headline is about.
US has 44% more home sellers than buyers*
Those “years” apparently have passed. It’s here now. And the diff between the mortgage rate people have vs what they’ll get if they sell is not a factor. At least that’s what the 44% tells me. If they’re sellers they’ve already made peace with that.
The oversupply is here. Millenials and allied aren’t affecting these numbers much even when you hear that group not being interested in being owners. They’re not old enough to be a major buying cohort. There are buyers and more sellers. Why’s housing expensive? That’s the crux. And yes, it could be a conspiracy.
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There’s been some talk about creating a transferable 30-year mortgage that you could move to your new home. That would require some kind of Gov’t subsidy to make the math work, but the cost mighty be worthwhile if it opens up the residential real estate market.
If you like your mortgage, you can keep it. {{ LOL }}
intercst
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Redfin says there are 44% more home sellers than buyers. That could be because the number of buyers has shrunk or because the number of sellers has increased.
Here it is the case of the number of buyers decreasing.
DB2
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Yep. At the current value of my home. I’d definitely be a renter. And younger people seem to have a greater understanding of the arithmetic of the “rent vs. buy” calculation.
I don’t have a mortgage. The only thing that’s keeping me in the home is the large “skim” on a sale.
intercst
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The Spring selling season will soon be here but it’s a bit early. Most w children want to move in June to be settled by the start of school. Those planning to move are shopping but not ready to sign contracts.
House are too expensive is easy to understand. If you take Pre-2000 price and trend, current prices show high appreciation. I don’t think there is 50% higher inventory, rather potential buyers who cannot afford to buy have left the market.
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Very large drop in California.
California’s homebuying collapse is far different than the nation’s sales dip…
California had 954,423 sales in 2023 -25, down from 1.25 million in 2007-09. So, homebuying was 24% slower over the past three years than during the housing nightmare. Yes, there are far fewer homebuyers these days than during the big crash.
However, the 12.4 million sales nationwide in 2023-25 were 13% higher than the 10.9 million in 2007-09. Not that Americans have been on a buying binge of late. The U.S. sales pace in the past three years is 6% slower than the previous 18 years. Yet California is down 31%.
DB2
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Curious. The last time you posted about California is was to tell us everybody is leaving.
Are they just leaving empty houses behind?
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Don’t know, but we do know that California’s population is stagnant – it trickled up by 0.05% (five ten-thousands) in 2025. We know from the OP that nationally there are more sellers than buyers. We also know that housing is very expensive in the Golden State, so it isn’t surprising that the sales decline is greater there.
DB2
About 18% of real estate transactions in California are family members inheriting the home. Is it as “sale” if there’s no “skim” involved?
{{ In California, inherited properties now outnumber new-home sales by more than two to one, a fact Cotality said could be attributed to the [state’s property tax rules }}
intercst
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IIRC, back in 2020 a proposition modified Proposition 13 to allow for the low tax assessment to be passed on.
DB2
DrBob2 has California derangement syndrome
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