Reporting Festivities: May 22-26

Companies of a particular interest:

  1. Global-e (GLBE) Reports Monday 5/22 Pre-Market

On its last ER way back in February GLBE reported Revenue Growth of just slightly better than 69% along with a razor thin Beat on Revenue by less than 1%. Here is other significant data from that report:

Q4 2022 Financial Results:

GMV1 in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $839 million, an increase of 66% year over year

Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $139.9 million, an increase of 69% year over year, of which service fees revenue was $62.8 million and fulfillment services revenue was $77 million

Non-GAAP gross profit in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $57.8 million, an increase of 77% year over year. GAAP gross profit in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $55.8 million

Non-GAAP gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 41.3%, an increase of 180 basis points from 39.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Adjusted EBITDA3 in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $21.8 million compared to $11.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2021

Net loss in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $28.5 million

Here is what is expected for Q1:

GLBE has had a wonderful pre-report run after bottoming on May 2 at 26.46 it has worked its way back up to 35.94 representing about a +35.8% gain. No doubt, a sturdy leg of that gain was built upon SHOP’s report which was just dandy.

I started to add on Friday just before the close under the concept that things in motion tend to stay in motion and with an anticipated great report perhaps $40 is in play. But then, I decided not to add under the concept that any sort of less than thrilling report would result in me getting my rear end handed to me. We’ll see I suppose and my core GLBE position will just have to do.
…

Fast Forward to 5/24 and we have a great Earnie Banks Lets Play Two doubleheader:

  1. NVDA - Reports Wednesday 5/24 After the Close

On NVDA’s last report in late February this was the headline:

Here is the Press Release:

After bottoming on December 28 at 140.36 and then doing a sidestep shuffle for a couple of days - the chart little line thingy is nothing but up and to the right. EV to sales (fwd) now stands a nose bleed level of 25.69.

Still - given the AI shock and awe campaign who doesn’t want to own NVDA - or at least a reasonable facsimile (looking at you AMD and you too RMBS) But could I get a little better grip - a better foot hole…please? Anyway I found a little potential hope in these two articles:

The first is by some guy who calls himself Dividend Sensei - which, somehow brings this to mind:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=video&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjhwObG4Yf_AhVEm2oFHfkmAioQz40FegQIBxAN&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DNEhwZ7loMgQ&usg=AOvVaw2WLXlxpqbOMOhVVgn66g8p

Here is the article:

And another article by Victor:

And if NVDA does somehow suffer some form of post event trauma - at one point would I be willing to enter? I dunno. We’ll see.
…

  1. Snowflake (SNOW) Reports Wednesday 5/24 After the Close.

On its last report SNOW came in with +53.5% Revenue Growth and a wicked good NRR of 158%. They noted RPO of 3.7B representing 38% YOY. Here is the Press Release:

SNOW’s stock price bottomed on January 5 at 121.56 and now stands at 176.49 per share. Of note - the Revenue Growth performance for the company has seen a number of consecutive qtrs of slow down. Currently the EV/Sales (fwd) sits at a lofty 18.31.

Anyway - any way you look at it Wednesday is going to be an interesting day - just right after the close.

Others reporting of marginal interest:

PANW
WDAY

All the Best,

7 Likes

Global-E Reports:

Seems like I am a little behind the report reporting thing as usual but these folks need to forego all that Monday reporting stuff: my brain - such as it is; doesn’t even get all that warmed up and off the Starting Block until sometime around 7-8PM on Mondays. Anyway…

  • Revenue came in at just over +69% YOY which was pretty good but if I am eyeballing it right, the Rev beat was slim: less than 1% or so. Just have this quirk where I somehow think investing opportunities in Growth are better - more healthy that is to say, with more solid Rev Beats of 3% or more. Seems reasonable.

  • GMV popped to an increase of 66% YOY.

  • Non-GAAP Gross Margins increased from 39.9% in the year ago Qtr to a pretty solid 41.3%.

Press Release here:

Global-e Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Results | Seeking Alpha

Fan Reaction: Stock has sold off a few points GLBE didn’t get the dreaded Hangman’s Drop. So - I added a bit.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

6 Likes
  1. NVDA Reports

Jacks Guidance out of the Park.

The report was only so-so or kinda blah-blah-blah - until…until the Guidance part; which, by my individual eye witness opinion and mostly reasonable and fairly accurate account, was a sort of walk off homer… a drop the mic moment - when the Pope first viewed the completed Sistine Chapel. Ok…Ok maybe the pope thing was one the top…still…if you thought NVDA was nose bleed expensive before the report it might just make you physically dizzy if you take a look after hours, Here is the Press Release as nothing more needs to be said:

Fan Reaction: Feeding Frenzy. Almost most makes me feel FOMO - well, except I already missed out. Stock is up some 28% during HRs trading. Anybody brave enough to short this rocket ship for a day or two?

Here is the after report Headline:

…

  1. SNOW Reports.

Alas - no feeding frenzy here.

Anyway here are the facts:

  • Revenue Growth: +47.6% YOY.

  • Net revenue retention rate of 151%

  • Remaining performance obligations of $3.4 billion, representing 31% year-over-year growth.

  • Non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow was $287 million for the quarter, up 58% year-over-year,” said Frank Slootman, Chairman and CEO, Snowflake

Here is the ER Press Release:

Fans Reaction: OH NOOOOOO Mr Bill!

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwj3k8fe-o7_AhVFm2oFHVrfAEcQwqsBegQIEBAF&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DM0F3JBzAtE4&usg=AOvVaw3bvP3nlOeDdckxmUN3RbDV

Stock is hovering down around $21-22 bucks a share (about - 11% or so) during AHs.

Heck…an investor would have to go all the way back to May 5th to beat the current AH price.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

6 Likes

are you considering to add snow or nvdia? i do not have guts to add both so, i added AMD luckily it’s up 5% after i added.

Bad Reactions: PATH(10% fall), APPS(20% fall)
Good reactions: NTNX, Splunk

Semi-rhetorical question:
What happens after Nvidia’s customers purchase all of those guided chips?

Semi-rhetorical answer:
I think those customers run a bunch of software through those chips that processes a pile of data sitting in and being loaded into some kind of data storage, maybe a database.

1 Like

Hi V:

I had the same initial reaction and took a quick look at AMD: Then decided to just wait and see a bit. Good luck with it.

I hadn’t look at PATH but find that reaction interesting. Still the Growth isn’t all that spectacular and there are (currently) better targets out there in my very humble opinion.

All the Best,
BDH Investing.

Hi ML:

Excellent thought process. Maybe turn a single into a stolen base while everyone is looking at hot blond sitting behind the dugout. But - please carry your thought to a conclusion for us really slow types.

Thanks and All the Best,

Champ,

You captured it brilliantly…

I dont know if you had a chance to hear the CNBC interview with the semiconductor guy…

Melissa asked him if he would advise his clients to buy at NVDA at $391…and he said yes, absolutely!!!

His answer was articulate - but basically, he says there is only one NVDA…He likens AI to be the gold rush, but certainly not a fad…Its applications are huge, and we are only scratching the surface with things liike chatgpt!

While the initial pop may be due to short squeeze, I actually don’t think we are done yet…

Unlike the other short squeeze stories on meme stocks, this is fundamentally a solid stock…and there are many who believe this is the next trillion dollar stock .

I bought it…I am not going to look at it for another 10 years… I just have to remind myself never to sell this one!

I was astounded when I heard this is by far, the clear leader in this AI industry, with not even a distant second…apparently, AMD “may” be able to come up, but its AI chips are nowhere near the NVDA as of now!!!

The very definition of a pick and shovel stock!!!

Charlie

2 Likes

And someone quizzed him about the valuation…and he said analysts are now scratching their heads as they have no idea how to value this now…

Normally, I dont like any of the TMF articles, no thanks! But I liked this one…

Obviously, I am biased, but it seemed to state the facts well…I should probably watch the earnings report…but if any of you did, how was it and how did the “amateurs” react when Jensen gave out the guidance …the highlighted part bought a chuckle when I read it first time

1 Like

And my last one for the day on NVDA…

Wow, I have never seen CNBC this effusive on a single stock…Just google it and see all the headlines on CNBC connected to NVDA!

And the post by Jon Wayne also has the numbers to back up the story…

I thought most of the run up was just shorts covering…but now realize it is vicious cycle…People have absolutely underestimated what NVDA could do and the new guidance has blown everyone away…everyone is buying the stock…and that makes the shorts run helter skelter…

At this rate, I would not be surprised to see this run much higher, prompting another stock split soon!

My friday evening is devoted to the NVDA call/ transcript!!

2 Likes

I cant believe it…May be euphoria, and I even thought about it overnight…Did you see all the updated NVDA upgraded price tragets…EVERYONE OF THEM IS ABOVE$400!!!

And this is not some meme stock we are talking about…This is based on fundamentals of their provided guidance of more than 50% QOQ revenue growth!!!

And in this macro, if Jensen is able to say that…JUST WOW!!!

1 Like

Here is CFRA

GOLDMAN SCAHS

image

AND THIS IS JP MOPRGAN

WOW, the same JP Morgan who said dont buy stocks, just a few days back!!!

I guess Jensen has indeed made them look like amateurs!!!

What a rock star!

3 Likes