Very impressed by how the share price is holding up and making gains… perhaps its reached “a permanently high plateau?” 
Mr Market certainly likes BRK atm compared to numerous long stretches in the past (valuation) it must be a flight to safety.
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Or a hair of relative strength because people are reminded of Berkshire because the annual report is soon?
Or does that make sense? What happened in the past?
I have no idea whether the past is a guide.
But since 2003, roughly speaking,
BRK price has tended to underperform for the week starting two weeks before the AR release.
And then outperform the average large cap for the next coupla weeks.
Trading days 4-7 days before the release averaged weak, relative to market. (S&P 500 equal weight)
Trading days from 3 before to 8 after the release averaged very good, relative to market.
Very much the same pattern in absolute terms and in relative-to-market terms.
So, if there’s a general rule, it’s this:
The week before and week-and-a-half after the date of the AR release have been, on average in the past, better than usual for the stock price.
So, this year’s almanac:
If you’re thinking of selling a bit some time soon, the auspicious dates would be February 15 (before the weaknesss) or March 9 (after the strength).
If you’re thinking of buying a bit some time soon, the auspicious date would be February 21, just before the strength starts.
As with any almanac it’s rather like astrology, but with a historico-numerical gloss.
We’ll check back in a month so I can make up some excuses why it was all wrong.
As any good astrologer should.
Jim
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I think the time for “flight to safety” may be over? and start looking into some fallen tech/ growth names. Not making any changes, yet.
So, this year’s almanac:
If you’re thinking of selling a bit some time soon, the auspicious dates would be February 15 (before the weaknesss) or March 9 (after the strength).
If you’re thinking of buying a bit some time soon, the auspicious date would be February 21, just before the strength starts.
PS,
From the “auspicious day to buy”, middle of the day Monday before AR release,
to the second “auspicious day to sell”, middle of the day Tuesday or Wednesday 10-11 days after the release,
the average stock price rise in the last 18 years has been +2.70% better than the S&P 500 equal weight.
Based on median year’s trajectory, rather than average, the second auspicious day might be a bit sooner, the Friday after release. March 4 this year.
Jim
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So, this year’s almanac:
If you’re thinking of selling a bit some time soon, the auspicious dates would be February 15 (before the weakness) or March 9 (after the strength).
If you’re thinking of buying a bit some time soon, the auspicious date would be February 21, just before the strength starts.
I think I did that off by one–I forgot to count the holiday when counting the number of trading days.
So, I think the corrected auguries are:
Good days to sell were last Wed/Thur though today’s not bad (before the weakness), and March 8 (end of the strength).
Good day to buy: this Friday Feb 18 (the bottom: end of the weakness, start of the strength)
(Friday best for lowest relative-to-market price, Thursday best for absolute price, so basically around the end of this week).
I did the “analysis” using the midpoint of high and low for each trading day.
Even with quotes, the term “analysis” is a bit generous–it’s more like hieromancy. But then so is a lot of stock analysis from brokers.
Anyway, if it’s right, this statistically would be expected to be a bad week for Berkshire’s price.
Jim
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I’ve found that necromancy works at least as well.
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Well, you have to admit it, this board offers both entertainment, education & potential profit!
0.) Entertainment wise, reading Jim’s posting’s & almost always ending with a smile 
1.)Education wise, I learned 2 new words today from Jim, AUGURIES & HIEROMANCY
2.)Profit wise, I have my order in for some 01/19/2024 LEAPS for this Fri the 18th ;^)
ciao
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