Interesting discussion of the depletion of munitions in Iran and U.S.: How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict
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Interesting angle on something that rarely shows up in normal market discussions. Military stockpiles and supply chains can quietly shape entire economic dynamics, especially if conflicts drag on longer than expected. Defense production capacity, logistics, and budgets suddenly start looking like macro indicators. Makes me wonder how many investors actually factor ammunition depletion and replenishment cycles into broader geopolitical risk analysis.
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This is why analysts are saying China is winning this war without even being in it.
They like nothing better than seeing the US deplete its stock of expensive anti-missile batteries and other ordinance in a war that has nothing to do with them. Theyâre even more heartened to hear that it takes millions of dollars to replace them, and that the production is small and canât really be ramped up.
What more could you ask than to watch an adversary weaken himself, while you do the opposite?
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Depends on long vs. short term outlook and the industries invested in. Knee jerk reaction to every bit of news is good for brokers but not for oneâs own portfolio. The question to answer, âHow sound are my companies for the long run?â
The Captain
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Unfortunately our conversations are split into fragments in this message board setting.
As discussed in another thread, the U.S. is not only using up its stockpile of $4M Patriot missiles against $20k shaheds, Russia is now mass producing Shaheds for their invasion of Ukraine and China is selling them the parts.
And, as mentioned in yet another thread, Russia is raising additional money to finance their economy and their invasion by upping their sales of oil to China and Russia.
China is playing the long game and we are chasing every squirrel we see.
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Besides the depletion of munitions; there is the cost factor. Weâve spent $5.6 billion in the first 2 days of the war.
https://archive.ph/JL2bC
Early Iran strikes cost $5.6 billion in munitions, Pentagon estimates
The figure, accounting for the warâs first two days, is likely to intensify concerns in Congress that U.S. forces are churning through a scarce supply of advanced weaponry.
Then there is a question about US defense industry production prowess.
General Dynamics built a factory in Texas to make 155mm artillery shells [not exactly high tech]. The new production is so bad the DOD is threatening to pull the contract.
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You spent much of the money when you made the stuff and you have to pay salaries war or no war.
$5.6 billion is VooDoo accounting.
The Captain
True as to the latter, for sure (except for those called back in from reserves), but the $5.6 billion was for munitions/armaments not salaries. While itâs true that money was spent to purchase the munitions that are and have been used, they will need to be replaced so that the true cost of using it is actually replacing it, which tend to get more expensive rather than cheaper. There are also âreadinessâ costs since now the U.S. is less prepared for any other conflict.
Also, using up armaments triggers additional costs that include
- transport and supply chain
- maintenance and preparation
- storage replacement
- increased production contracts to rebuild stockpiles
- accelerated wear on launch platforms
These can all add up a bitâŚ
Pete
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That stuff will have to be replaced. And it will take a lengthy time. And it diminishes US military capacity to respond to attacks.
One option is to dismantle the war department.
Unlikely, Americans love to carry guns.
But using them is a no-no!
The Captain
Iran knows the US fearless leader. It warms the president.
Iran has issued a chilling warning to Donald Trump, warning him âbe careful not to get eliminated yourself.â
Senior Iranian security official, Ali Larijani, posted on X stating, âIran doesnât fear your empty threats. Even those bigger than you couldnât eliminate Iran. Be careful not to get eliminated yourself.â
Iranâs speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, also rejected Trumpâs claims that the war could end âvery soonâ. Writing on social media, he said: âWe believe we must strike the aggressor in the mouth so that it learns a lesson and never again even thinks of aggressing against our dear Iran."
No quick off ramp from this war. The fearless leader has been threatened!
Iran takes a page from bin Laden. Another 25 years of WOT? How much will this cost?
What will be the macro economic impact upon the USA?
The long term answer is to accelerate the deployment of renewables at such a high level that within ten years oil is worth substantially less. Without the financial resources to continue, the aggressors will stop. Maximum solar, battery and wind deployment will eventually degrade the value of oil.
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Musk is going to put power hungry data centers in space! No CO2 to worry about.
The Captain
Stealing from Peter to pay Paul.
interceptors and other missile defense munitions, and Iranian counterattacks have also hit THAAD radars in the region. According to a report from The Washington Post, the Pentagon estimates that it has burned through $5.6 billion worth of munitions in just the first two days of the war.
US officials told the Post that, in addition to moving parts of the THAAD out of South Korea, the US has begun drawing from its supply of Patriot interceptors from bases in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere around the world.
SoâŚ..we are weakening our defenses in the Pacific and Ukraine because Iran is a greater threat to us than Russia and China?
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Yes!
The Captain
Just to balance with a comment based in reality.
- [pretend engineer]âs space data centers arenât coming anytime soon in any meaningful economic way other than a marketing promotional effort.
- Whatever meager projectile is in orbit, it wonât have utility* (probably negative utility).
- The rocket to propel the useless thing generates CO2 waste.
- The materials to build the thing will require earthly resources.
- The earthly resources will be incinerated when they re-enter earthâs atmosphere or theyâll just float in orbit after the equipment reaches end of life (also during life when not much useful is happening).
Summary
- Build useless thing.
- Blast into orbit.
- Nothing else happens.
*When doing random tinkering, there is always a small chance something unexpectedly useful is uncovered.
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Chips in data centers degrade faster than others, and have a useful life of 5 years or less.
So after 5 years, replace with another, and leave the old one up there as orbital space junk. Gosh weâre smart.
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Where does the excess heat get dumped?
The where is easier: radiate to space.
The exactly how to achieve that with efficient physics and economics is the challenge.
Perhaps @captainccs can answer that question, but I donât think people really know.
The answers we have so far seem to be âjust tweet it,â actually having a functional product isnât really the main outcome (see threads on robotaxi and semi).
Stock value is generated by marketing and financial engineering.
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