"I don’t know exactly what next year’s RMD until the end of December. If today were 31 December, my next year’s RMD would be $130K even with the market behavior since the beginning of the year.
The only difference between selling securities in an “up” year versus a “down” year is the reduction in your capital gains on your sales. The IRS’ Uniform Lifetime Table guarantees that you will need to sell securities in a “down” year at some point in your lifetime. Why worry about it?"
Well, you’re in a nice spot to be having to take $130K/yr out of your IRA. Either than, or are 90 years old and got millions in the IRA, too.
The problem is not selling ‘securities’. It is having something other than STOCKS to sell each and every year.
Now, if you are in your 70s, dividends (typically 2.3% now on SP500 type funds) will provide up to half your annual needs. So you only have to sell maybe 1.5% of your holdings.
There is no capital gains on your IRA holdings. It’s all ‘full income’.
Unless you take out securities and transfer them to a separate taxable account - and still paying any and all taxes on the value of the stocks at the time of transfer - most folks are simply going to ‘sell’ something to get the 130K after they have their dividends and interests.
Not much reason to go to that trouble. If stock XXX is at 88 dollars a share - and you transfer them to a taxable account, paying your full income tax on 88 dollars time number of shares…you could simply sell them in your IRA…take the cash…and buy the stocks at 88/sh in your private account - IF you really want those stocks. When you go to sell them, the tax basis will be 88/sh anyway.
Being all in stocks could lead to a situation where the market is really up on Dec 31, and crashes big time 3 days later and stays down.
Think that happened to lots of dot.com type stocks. The capital gains rate was going from 20% to 15% the next tax year - so folks held off till Jan 2 and then dumped tons of stocks…around year 2000? QCOM went from $800/sh to $250/sh in a week.
I sleep well at night. Dividends and interest piles up. I"m 50/50 in my IRA. If stocks are down, sell some REITS or corp bonds for the extra 2% I need a year.
t.