It looks like Russia is going for more than the supposed 300k recruits. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that this massive mobilization campaign hasn’t been prepared for very well at all. I expect that most of those recruits are going to sit around in camps for weeks on end, with very little equipment and less qualified training. Many may also be just shipped to the front and dumped there. I’m not sure what will happen exactly, but I feel confident predicting that the next weeks will at minimum be a major embarrassment to Putin, potentially even a massive disaster as logistics are thrown into chaos.
It looks like Russia is going for more than the supposed 300k recruits. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that this massive mobilization campaign hasn’t been prepared for very well at all.
I’ll go out on the limb with you. I’ve been watching this issue for a while and most sober analysts think Russia can’t train and equip anywhere near this many troops in any reasonable time frame. For example see this thread on Twitter (barf) by Gen. Mark Hertling who has viewed Russian training first hand:
The old Soviet system maintained skeleton units composed almost entirely of officers and NCOs, with huge stockpiles of equipment in storage. The idea was that in the time of war you could have mass conscription, plug the conscripts into the existing units, and be off to the races. But after several rounds of “reform” the Russian system has moved to more like a professional army model, with volunteers working on contracts. Although Russia has a huge number of tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery, it has a shortage of basic equipment like body armor, optics, and night vision.
So it appears extremely doubtful the Russians can integrate that many soldiers into coherent units in any sort of reasonable time frame. And even more doubtful it can provide those soldiers with basic equipment. On top of that, those soldiers need to be supplied, and the Russians are known to be really bad at logistics.
This seems to be an act of desperation. Putin is losing on the battlefield and needs soldiers. But mass conscription may lead to political problems at home. For now, conscription seems to be emphasized on ethnic minorities at the fringes of the empire. If Putin needs to start conscription in Moscow and St. Petersburg the tide may turn, and not in his favor.
But mass conscription may lead to political problems at home. For now, conscription seems to be emphasized on ethnic minorities at the fringes of the empire.
True, but this could bring big political problems for Putin. Many of these regions are Russian in name only and if they see that they are being used as ‘cannon fodder’ by Putin this will give support to the independance movements there:
Even now, not many people would believe that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could lead to the dissolution of the Russian Federation, the largest country in the world by landmass (formed by dozens of political entities and ethnic groups). However, there are several reasons why the Russian Federation is more fragile than it seems on the surface.
Those being mobilized are reservists=men with prior service in Russian army, They should not require much training.
It is also suggested that mobilize troops will replaced trained active duty troops in other areas of Russia so they can be transported to the front.
I have seen many articles from Western journalists that Russia is screwed as the troops are not trained & Russia doesn’t have any equipment to supply those mobilized.
1)the journalist are wrong in regard to how much reactivated troops will need to be trained.
2)I suspect the journalist like me are clueless on how equipment Russia has stockpiled and what it is. That will become evident once reinforcements show up in the Ukraine. And the quality of those reinforcement will be evident once they confront the Ukrainian army.