Here are Samsara’s latest quarters:
Revenue
25Q2 $300M 25Q3 $322M 25Q4 $346M 26Q1 $367M
26Q2 $391M 26Q3 $416M 26Q4 $444M 27Q1 $479M
Adj Income per share in the last 4 quarters: $0.15 $0.12 $0.16 $0.18
IOT achieved GAAP positive income in last 3 quarters.
YoY Revenue growth in the last 4 quarters: 30% 29% 28% 31%
Gross margind (adj) in the last 4 Q: 77% 76% 76% 75%
The Good:
Company is growing at 30%
Their cashflow margin and operating margin are increasing.
99% of their revenue is recurring.
They have adjusted their guidance up in the last call.
Te Bad:
Legal feud with a competitor (Samsara has sued Motive Technologies for patent breaches and anti competitive beharior). This has probably scared investors as they think Motive might be taking over from Samsara.
Gross Margin is slightly trending down.
Samsara is caught in the generel AI speculation. Investors think that software providers will suffer from potential customers just building their software themselves.
The Speculative:
Samsara is guiding for 24% YoY revenue growth in FY27, which would be a let down. However in FY2026 they have guided for 21% and achieved 30% so they are probably sand bagging.
P/S at the moment is 10.5 which is crazy for a profitable company growing at 30% YoY.
My Conclusion
I think the market is way too negative about Samsara. It’s been a year since the fears about Motive Technologies taking over have started and Samsara has not slowed down. There’s currently enough market for both companies to grow rapidly and Samsara seems to be the more solid one.
It also does not seem like their target customers are going to develop their own fleet management software by themselves using AI.
My expectation is that Samsara delivers over 30% growth in FY 2027 and will warrant a higher valuation.